Fun Hand Analysis Contest--Win Free $250

[keikiwai]

you were tyring to rep a miscick pf, as you knew villain would push w/ ATC, since he assumes you'll fold... A8s is the nuts vs. ATC:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 61.9438 % 60.51% 01.44% { As8s }
Hand 2: 38.0562 % 36.62% 01.44% { random }

You probably noticed villain making opportunistic plays like this.

[Megenoita]

There is some excellent thinking going on in this thread already, Al and Kei...not saying right, wrong or indifferent, but just great thought processes here...

[thedustbustr]

1. Explain my preflop RAISE action correctly-why I did what I did.
2. Explain my preflop CALL action correctly-why I did what I did.
3. Does my preflop RAISE play lose or win money in the long run?
4. Does my preflop CALL play lose or win money in the long run (not given what he actually had)?
5. Explain specifically my preflop INSTA-call.


1. Fake misclick against a decent villain who you think will push hands that are above the top half of your raising range, and maybe a little below for fold equity.

2. call - your hand has pot odds against the hands he should be pushing with, assuming he thinks you made a misclick (at 100nl this is probably very accurate)

3. it wins, against someone who isn't gonna start leveling with you, because they see the misclick and push with 98s and kjo and lots of hands that are >>> a random hand and slightly greater than the bottom half of your pfr range

4. it obviously wins, for the same reaons as #3

5. he timed 45% to decide if you are faking, of course decides you aren't, and pushes - he has a marginal hand, as AK and highish pps are an insta call. so you of course insta call because you have incredible pot odds against his range to push, not to mention your hand has very high hot/cold equity if he pushes light at all, as you expect him to. Even if he is pushing very tight, you have a barely +EV call vs KK and higher aces, and AA is unlikely given he ran his timer down.

6. results, yes, this time your call was barely +EV, as you had 30% equity in a $200 pot if you call ($60 equity) and you only had to call $57. you made $3 in EV by calling. folding is 0EV of course.

Hand 1: 57.2395 % 54.67% 02.63% { A8s }
Hand 2: 42.7604 % 40.17% 02.63% { top 50% hands hot/cold }

Hand 1: 44.2828 % 42.15% 02.13% { A8s }
Hand 2: 55.7174 % 53.59% 02.13% { top 15% hands hot/cold }

Hand 1: 29.5775 % 26.91% 02.67% { As8s }
Hand 2: 70.4225 % 67.75% 02.67% { AhQh }

[FoldEqu1ty]

OK I'll have a shot. I'm posting this now to give my unorganized thought process and editing later to answer specifically the questions you posed.

I think this play hinges on the counter-intuitively large amount of EV that any Ax holds against villain's calling range. You are doing this for metagame reasons. You plan to show this hand, giving the impression that you are taking this crazy line with Axs, getting your opponents to 'catch you out' in future with high AX hands and High PP's. In future you will plan to do this exact same thing only with super premium hands, roughly AA-QQ and AK, making a big profit versus their now grossly expanded calling/pushing range. If you get unlucky now and one of your opponents does have a premium hand, you have a decent amount of equity versus their range.

So in summary a low AX hand provides these two things. Maximum shock value with decent equity versus premium hands.



You have an ace in your hand, so it is highly unlikely that anyone at the table will have been dealt AA. (6 combinations versus 24 for KK/QQ etc) Because your PFR screams a big PP or AK, everyone folds AQ and lower here, and very often you'll be getting folds from AK too, but as we find out soon it doesn't really matter what higher AX hands do.



Equity versus KK: 31.93%
Equity versus AK: 30.00%
Equity versus AA: 11.97%

Let's assume a very tight pushing range of AA-QQ. Your equity versus this range is (31.93*8+11.97)/9 = 29.7%. Even versus only AA-KK, your equity is (31.93*4+11.97)/9 = 27.9%. Compare this to the equity that say, TT has against a higher PP, 18.85%, and you can see that Ax is a great hand to do this with.

So no matter what villain's pushing range here, your equity hovers between the very small range of 27.9% and 31.93% - around 30%. You're winning between $56 and $64 dollars on average by calling here, so your call for $57.50 is roughly breakeven.

[Megenoita]

great job so far guys...you are more advanced than I suspected [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]...everyone take a good shot...I'll be checking in throughout the day...contest ends midnight and I'll declare a winner or reveal the answer

[Freelancer]

I'll give it a shot because I'm a sucker for free money...

1) You raised 43$ preflop implying that you mistyped, your normal raise is probably 4$ and since the 3 is close villains can easily assume you mistyped and push with ATC. Its also good for metagame because your image will change towards maniac, considering that your image is already that of a bluffy guy (you run bad so you have to fold more often so people assume you bet with air more often) and you might as well turn it into a maniac image so you just have to worry about value betting.
2) You snapcalled because you are assuming villains range is very wide, with the added fact that villain pushed after thinking a bit implies that his hand isn't a autopush hand like a big pair or AK giving you even better odds. Add in the fact of metagame and you have a quick call.
3) If you don't do this with any regularity it will win money in the long run, this is assuming you pull this off once in a blue moon. Its good for image and this will also earn you more money, I doubt I have to mention that its a high variance play. This needs thinking players however, if villain will only push with QQ+,AQ+ you will lose money in the long run.
4) Your snapcall makes money as explained in point 1. This is assuming his range is very wide for pushing, and I think it is. With the metagame and pot odds mixed in its probably slightly +ev to call.
5) You already decided to call when you raised, so you might as well snapcall.

Bonus:
Lets see;
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

61,642,944 games 0.125 secs 493,143,552 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 69.1440 % 66.34% 02.80% { AQo }
Hand 2: 30.8560 % 28.06% 02.80% { A8s }

So you have ~30% equity with ~143$ in the pot and 57$ for you to call.
To break even you need;
143*(3/10)=42.9
Its however 57$ to call, so your losing about 14$ every time you make the call.

My math is screwed up so I'm curious if I got it right. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]


Ps. How are you going to control the editing sprew of people after seeying other responces?

[pdoran10]

Ok, Im giving this a shot.

1. Preflop, you likely wanted to establish or cement the idea that you were a bad player making wild plays who was possibly now on tilt, setting opponents up for later when you may be able to make a similar overbet with a big hand and win a huge pot when u were way ahead equity wise. You raised to $43 because this pot stuck you to being given near correct odds to call any all in raise unless you can put the villan on a bigger suited ace or AA. (I use cardplayer.com's Holdem odds calculator way too much).

2. Ur preflop call was made due was the fact that the pot was laying you near a good price (like between 6-9% off equity wise depending on villands hand) added to the expected money you can expect to see in the future by villans calling big bets of yours, you were selling to the rest of the table that ur huge overbets were full of crap to the table, so you could get paid off in future hands. U had to call $53 to win $147, which means ur only getting slightly less than the price that would make the call alone break even EV wise.

3. I believe that in the long run, the raise is a slightly winning play, assuming that at an average NL100 table you can expect to get no action on this $42 raise unless you run into AA-JJ, (given ur table image) and occasionally big aces, and when you do run into these hands you have about 30-32% equity against (except AA or couse). You stand to steal the blinds enough times, and win enough in future big bets being paid off for the few times you run into AA or a big suited ace to be negligible, making this to be profitable in the long run.

4. In the long run, the fact that villan took a long time to raise lead you to believe the pot was laying you near the right price to call (he obv. didnt have AA), coupled with the fact that you stood to have future overbets paid off. Overall, the call alone does not make money itself, but the table image and future overbets you might stand to win assuming players are sticking around makes it profitable when all this is taken into account.

5. First off, the insta-call helped cement the crazy image you were trying to portray. Also, any pause from the villan making this raise led you to believe you were getting a close enough price to call, all things considered.

6. Given that you ran into another bigger suited ace, the second worst hand to run into after AA, which you could have never predicted from his long pause, this might push you into the realm of losing money, because you are now no longer getting very close to the right price to make the call just based on the odds the pot is laying you and will need to make up more money in future overbets being paid off. So this could make calling a losing money option, being results oriented.

$250 is worth a shot even if what i wrote is garbage [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Hosehound25]

1: Table image, set up players for later hands so that you will get paid off with a similar odd play when you have the nuts/near nuts
2:Pot odds, you have to call not that you are put all in. You are getting about 4 to 1 when you are less than a 4 to 1 dog.
3: I believe it loses money in the long run. Assuming you do this UTG and pick up the $1.50, these profits are offset by the times that you lose. Most times you are going to be dominated holding A8 suited, or in a coin flip at best. Especially if you do this multiple times at a table, a good player will wait for QQ, KK, or AA and catch you in the act.
4: Loses money, even though you are getting the odds to call you are most likely a dog.
5: Pot odds as described above
6: You lose money in the long run if he has AQ. You are going to lose or chop the pot about 32% of the time, thus losing 68% of the time. So, you are going to lose 18% of your total investment (50% minus 32% equals 18%). So if you have invested a total of $500 in hands at the table you are going to be down to $410 (losing $90) by using such a strategy given these are the cards both players hold.

[Megenoita]

"Ps. How are you going to control the editing sprew of people after seeying other responces?"

Great point...from now on, no more edited posts are allowed! Double-check before submitting. No more edits.

[sdfsdf]

1. Explain my preflop RAISE action correctly-why I did what I did.

trying to rep a typo

2. Explain my preflop CALL action correctly-why I did what I did.

you have odds to call

3. Does my preflop RAISE play lose or win money in the long run?

lose

4. Does my preflop CALL play lose or win money in the long run (not given what he actually had)?

win

5. Explain specifically my preflop INSTA-call.

you have odds to call given how much money there was in the pot