200nl stars river bluff shove

[sightless]

but how do you know he folds aa there?

[myke11]

i dont know that, but i fold AA here, and i feel like alot of people do as well. That was what i thought during the hand.

[RUDIKULOUS]

I think this is good against a lot of 200 regs.

Also if you dont think myke can have T8 or 97 here...lol.

[MMa7]

Wouldn't we raise here on a flop or at least turn with a set, so we can stack AA?

[myke11]

on a board like this alot of people call down with sets. if youre trying to slowplay it looks very strong to raise the turn

[.KeviN.]

[ QUOTE ]
well... im very surprised to hear alot of these thoughts. I thought it would be very effective. Im very sure if it were used against me it would be effective, as I would fold AJ in his seat all day long

[/ QUOTE ]

He never has AJ in this spot. For what it's worth thou without reads I'll fold to ur river raise w aces even thou this shove does look pretty bluffy. Thing is I was pretty sure he was stronger than just an overpair, but I guess I'm wrong bc ur posting this and defending it hard so I guess it worked.

[djj6835]

[ QUOTE ]
He never has AJ in this spot. For what it's worth thou without reads I'll fold to ur river raise w aces even thou this shove does look pretty bluffy. Thing is I was pretty sure he was stronger than just an overpair, but I guess I'm wrong bc ur posting this and defending it hard so I guess it worked.



[/ QUOTE ]

AJ is basically AA here.

[myke11]

if i was him i could have aj here

[Noam Chomsky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think if he folded, you had the best hand. I cannot remember ever seeing someone with those stats fire three shells only to fold to a river raise when only one draw got there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this. What if he has AA... hes def 3 barreling this board. However, i think AA has to fold to this shove, or at least should.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol? why would AA fold to this shove when it looks like a busted frush?

[djj6835]

I don't really like it. Your perceived range at the river is basically 99,22,97,T8 and some frequency of bluffs with QT and busted heart draws. Villain needs to be good 25% to call and about 75% of your range is air so if you are bluffing with the busted draws even half the time villain should call.

The only reason this might work imo is the fact that villain did bet the river. This tells me that he thinks most of your range is made hands and not draws so if that is true then this should work bc nobody turns a made hand into a bluff here.

Still i hate trying to get people to fold overpairs but I guess there is only one way to find out if they will.