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#61
09-11-2007, 06:30 PM
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Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux: Week 1
[ QUOTE ]
Anyways, if Cin -2.5 looked like a good bet to you, you should have bet it on it's own merits, but the tease shouldn't factor at all. [/ QUOTE ] Actually, as I've grown as a nerd. It does matter. You'll learn. 
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#63
09-11-2007, 06:39 PM
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Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux: Week 1
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I was on Jax too but still turned out a profit for the week cos I decided to middle Bengals game. I sat calculating the EV for my options and was a bit surprised to see the middle was best, (I might have used too rough numbers). [/ QUOTE ] this is my first season on the Wong teasers(read the book in the spring) and I sat there last night thinking I should middle this game(Cin -2.5 was at my book) and couldn't rememeber reading anything about it so I passed. After reading this I'm glad that I won but pissed I missed out on a really good night. [/ QUOTE ] Don't look at it like that. You didn't have a "middle" opportunity, you had a hedge opportunity, and Homer said something about those once, but I can't for the life of me remember what is what as he was very long-winded and vague about it. Anyways, if Cin -2.5 looked like a good bet to you, you should have bet it on it's own merits, but the tease shouldn't factor at all. [/ QUOTE ] I agree, with one exception. If you are incorrectly bankrolled then it might be better to hedge. I realize most of the sharps here will stay out of these situations, but I (not a sharp) managed to "short-stack" myself this weekend. Basically, prior to Sunday I bet 7% of my BR on the DET+BAL teaser b/c I thought it was going to be the only one (and I was admittedly over-excited about my first ever Wong weekend). Then Sunday right before the 1:00 kickoffs I saw the CAR and JAX wong lines and felt like I had to make the same size bets. Needless to say I underestimated the variance caused by losing 1 game and the potential catastrophe of losing 2 of 4. I still didn't hedge the game, but I'm not sure I shouldn't have. I did buy 3 Cinci contracts at $66 right before the 3rd & goal that ended up getting intercepted, but at that point it was an additional bet rather than a hedge. It all worked out, but I definitely learned my lesson.
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#65
09-11-2007, 06:52 PM
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Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux: Week 1
[ QUOTE ]
Daliman wakes up and pisses excellence [/ QUOTE ] Fine, I find the extra 2 2-teamers and 3-teamer and get no credit. I piss superiority!!111!!
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#66
09-11-2007, 07:14 PM
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Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux: Week 1
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I was on Jax too but still turned out a profit for the week cos I decided to middle Bengals game. I sat calculating the EV for my options and was a bit surprised to see the middle was best, (I might have used too rough numbers). [/ QUOTE ] this is my first season on the Wong teasers(read the book in the spring) and I sat there last night thinking I should middle this game(Cin -2.5 was at my book) and couldn't rememeber reading anything about it so I passed. After reading this I'm glad that I won but pissed I missed out on a really good night. [/ QUOTE ] Don't look at it like that. You didn't have a "middle" opportunity, you had a hedge opportunity, and Homer said something about those once, but I can't for the life of me remember what is what as he was very long-winded and vague about it. Anyways, if Cin -2.5 looked like a good bet to you, you should have bet it on it's own merits, but the tease shouldn't factor at all. [/ QUOTE ] What he said is exactly why I didn't. I remember reading it a while back.
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#67
09-11-2007, 08:09 PM
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Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux: Week 1
[ QUOTE ]
Nice to start the new season the same way the last one ended. Week 1 results; Teased games: 3-0 (100%) 2 team teases: 3-0 100%) +1740 [/ QUOTE ] are "teased games:3-0" just one game teases? So basically individual games teased six points?
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#68
09-11-2007, 08:10 PM
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Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux: Week 1
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Nice to start the new season the same way the last one ended. Week 1 results; Teased games: 3-0 (100%) 2 team teases: 3-0 100%) +1740 [/ QUOTE ] are "teased games:3-0" just one game teases? So basically individual games teased six points? [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, just a basis to see the covering %.
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#69
09-11-2007, 09:08 PM
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Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux: Week 1
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Nice to start the new season the same way the last one ended. Week 1 results; Teased games: 3-0 (100%) 2 team teases: 3-0 100%) +1740 [/ QUOTE ] are "teased games:3-0" just one game teases? So basically individual games teased six points? [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, just a basis to see the covering %. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, shows W/L of each team used for teasing for the week/year. Seems semi-integral, if only for completeness sake.
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#70
09-11-2007, 09:10 PM
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Re: Daliman\'s NFL Wong teasers, Season Deux: Week 1
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Anyways, if Cin -2.5 looked like a good bet to you, you should have bet it on it's own merits, but the tease shouldn't factor at all. [/ QUOTE ] Actually, as I've grown as a nerd. It does matter. You'll learn. [/ QUOTE ] Do you mean only if you have overbet? What if you were betting strict Kelly or less? It would seem to me as long as BR is not a problem, it's best to let it ride without inferred edge on 2nd bet.
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