Theory - Late Stages

[chh]

Awesome input.

Yeah I guess the problem is that I never actually took conclusive notes about who's stealing from who with what success. Instead I was focused mainly on who's stealing from me - and other tables. I realize now that watching how the other hands play out is actually the most valuable information regarding stealing. And if anyone else was watching me play like you watch everyone else, I guess it was trivially easy to realize I'm a good target to pick on.

Regarding the AI-charts:
I mean obviously you wont be open pushing all that many hands while you still have 20bb, but it still gives a great idea about how much (or little) each hand is worth in each respective scenario. Listening to you makes me severely question some of my raises already (*cough* 88 UTG *cough*) Are you planning on writing a book including these charts anytime soon? Or is asking nicely maybe enough? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Chris

[hamnegger]

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Resteals are really about a very simple issue, and this is why we do what I suggest in the second tip. We are looking for players that both Raise too loose, AND call too tight. Why I am taking notes is, if I see a guy call with QTo after he raises and gets shoved on, well, I will not ever be restealing with junk on that guy, but I will certainly 3bet him slightly wider for Value. Likewise if I see a guy fold to a 3bet after raising, then I am slightly more inclined to resteal from him. It also lets me identify who at the table are the restealers. People that resteal dont do it just once and never again, they often become habitual restealers. This is pretty easy to discern, because the range at which we can 3bet for value is so incredibly tight. People only get 3% top hands after a raiser so often. If I see someone 3bet twice inside of three orbits, well... odds are pretty good they are light restealing as opposed to just getting good cards. These people I will generally call with anything I had raised with.


Do I really have charts made for where my hand is mathematically the best? Yes, several... I have a jam or fold chart that I use for 20bb, 15bb, 10bb, and 5bb. But this alone does not make my play completely algorithmic or anything. These charts simply show me which hands are more +chipEV to open push as opposed to fold. They arent perfect for several reasons. First, they assume that opponents are calling me optimally, which they dont. As a general rule people call too tight. Second, they assume a stance of +chipEV and not +$EV, my chips in my stack are worth more than the ones I can win (see sklansky), and therefore my chips have a premium. Note also that these first two major issues counterbalance. My opponents are too tight from optimal, but my chips are worth more, so I should be pushing slightly looser for reason one, but slightly tighter for reason two. Third, They only show wether open pushing is more +cEV than folding. Open raising might be the most +cEV, and these tables dont discuss that.

The reason I find them quite valuable is the insight they provide. Most people have no idea just how tight you need to be in the first couple positions, due to the math odds of someone having a hand that dominates you, multiplied by the number of opponents yet to act. Secondly, most people have no idea just how wide you can open push from button or small blind with relatively small stacks. Third, those that do recognize how wide you should be pushing late often adopt a push any two strategy, and this only works for so long, since our opponents can adjust to our play. I find that if I really open push from the charts, that it automatically finds a good balance, of pushing enough to stay ahead of the curve, yet not pushing so much that it affects my opponents play. These hands from the charts allow me to simply not care if I get called behind or not. Even if I am called optimally, its +EV push to the tune of margin of error of the blinds, so whatever. And finally, at the top end there are hands that I want to encourage action, and these can be balanced by hands slightly under the range that I can raise steal without open pushing.

4card

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wanna come teach my junior math class?

[McMelchior]

I'm sure there's a lot of good advice in this thread, but if you haven't studied the MTTc forum's animated HH library you're missing out on the best ... plenty of real life illustrations on how to play the stack/blind ratios that you struggle with.

[helter skelter]

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Also, is there any good articles or whatever discussing resteals? I just reviewed HoH and whilst he talks a lot about red zone play, there isnt really anything about restealing. What are hands you prefer to smooth call with as opposed to restealing?

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Yeah, I noticed that too. It's almost as if Harrington doesn't believe in restealing. The only form of re-stealing he covers is the squeeze play, which he wouldn't make too often and would want to know his opponents.

I also have trouble in orange and yellow zone when others are raising in front of me when I was prepared to raise, yet I don't have a hand that is supposed to play against a raiser because of gap concept, or if I raise and get re-raised, I don't really know if I am getting stolen from or if the re-raiser has a legitimate hand. Usually, I haven't seen enough of my opponents play to draw any conclusions, so I can't really assume that raisers or re-reraisers don't have what they are representing.

[BigPoppa]

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I also have trouble in orange and yellow zone when others are raising in front of me when I was prepared to raise, yet I don't have a hand that is supposed to play against a raiser because of gap concept, or if I raise and get re-raised, I don't really know if I am getting stolen from or if the re-raiser has a legitimate hand. Usually, I haven't seen enough of my opponents play to draw any conclusions, so I can't really assume that raisers or re-reraisers don't have what they are representing.

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I hate it when I get something like AJ/KQ that I'd be happy to shove with if it folded to me but I don't get the chance. Someone raises in front of me and I have no FE, so I'm in the position of essentially calling an allin with a semi-strong hand that might be dominated or waiting for another spot that may never come. I usually end up folding just to find out the PFR has A-rag or QTo.

[degeneratedonk]

Awesome thread, anthology potential.

[degeneratedonk]

stop and go is the same as floating right?

[Yoshi63]

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stop and go is the same as floating right?

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No. A stop and go is where you call a big % of your stack OOP pf, then shove any flop. This is quite different than floating.

[swede554]

4CardStraight that's some serious good stuff. I must say I'm very impressed. I really like this especially because it's so damn true.

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Most people have no idea just how tight you need to be in the first couple positions, due to the math odds of someone having a hand that dominates you, multiplied by the number of opponents yet to act. Secondly, most people have no idea just how wide you can open push from button or small blind with relatively small stacks. Third, those that do recognize how wide you should be pushing late often adopt a push any two strategy, and this only works for so long, since our opponents can adjust to our play.

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I def play too loose up front, something I need to fix, but in LP I have a good feel for what hands are profitable to push at different stack sizes. Sklansky and Miller talks about it in "No Limit Hold'Em; Theory and Practice". It's something they call the Sklansky-Chubukov rankings. Have you heard about it? Also what buy-ins/limits do you play at?

[Dave D]

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I also have trouble in orange and yellow zone when others are raising in front of me when I was prepared to raise, yet I don't have a hand that is supposed to play against a raiser because of gap concept, or if I raise and get re-raised, I don't really know if I am getting stolen from or if the re-raiser has a legitimate hand. Usually, I haven't seen enough of my opponents play to draw any conclusions, so I can't really assume that raisers or re-reraisers don't have what they are representing.

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I hate it when I get something like AJ/KQ that I'd be happy to shove with if it folded to me but I don't get the chance. Someone raises in front of me and I have no FE, so I'm in the position of essentially calling an allin with a semi-strong hand that might be dominated or waiting for another spot that may never come. I usually end up folding just to find out the PFR has A-rag or QTo.

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Big difference between AQ and AJ. AQ is an easy reshove in a lot of situations, AJ is often a fold. Realize this and you'll be fine.

As far as when to raise and just push as has been discussed, a good rule of thumb is you should never raise 20% or more of your stack. Unless you have AA/KK or maybe QQ and you think this is the best way to get a villian in and get it all in on the flop or something. If you have AK and 12bb, you should be pushing because a standard raise is 25% of your stack.

Just to add to this thread, realize that getting 2:1 on a call is pretty good and means you should call with a lot of hands you might not normally.

For example say you have 20 BB. Shorty pushes from CO after the money has been hit (so say blinds are 800/400/100) for 4BB, you're in the BB and it folds to you. There's 5300 in the pot, and you only have to call 2400. Your calling range should probably be wider than you think. You have to realize that his pushing range is pretty wide, so you should be calling with pretty much any pair, almost any ace, a lot of soooted cards. Realize that if you have live cards (which you often will), you're probably a 60/40, getting odds that are better than that. I'm sure a lot of less experianced players are passing up edges here.

Also, even if a call is exaclty ev neutral, you call because you're accumulating, and your chances of winning the tournament go up more than each chip is proportunatly worth. Also, it's good for Shania.

One thing about folding small pairs in EP. A lot of people fold them with less than 12 BB. Personally I don't, because I think if I can limp (raising is bad, pushing is probably fine a lot of the time depending on the situation) then I'm doubling or sometimes trippling through with a set. That's huge. Obviously whether or not to fold 33 in EP is a judgement call basead on your table's aggressiveness, but generally I see it as 10BB is the same as 9BB (so if I have to fold to a LP PF raise that's fine), but represents a chance to at least double through most of the time, and often tripple through, which is huge.

Oh yeah, a note about raising to steal. I barely ever raise 2.5x late tourney. If you do, realize that you should only be doing this with TT+, AQ+ in the CO or something. Realize that you're giving BB really good odds to call, and personally I call in the BB with A TON of hands there if I have a decent stack. This all is doubly true for minraising. Just don't minraise. I don't care if it's been taking down the blinds, just don't do it. Again, personally I call a minraise with a TON of hands because of the retardedly good odds I'm getting (often 4:1+). Just don't do it with A9 or something.

Also, something that I see a lot as a mistake goes the following: Someone with 20BBs opens in the CO for 3x with a hand like 55, Button, and both blinds only have 5 BB stacks, or maybe even button has 15BB.

You should be pushing in that situation. You CERTAINLY don't want button restealing on you (so maybe 3x is good with QQ+, probably not AK and definitely not AQ to try to induce that). But the bigger issue is that one of the shorties might try to push back. You're obligated to call with ATC there pretty much because of the odds you're getting. But, a ton of the time you're gonna be a flippament with the villian. That doesn't really help (not withstanding the neutral EV is really +EV comment made earlier) anything. You should push there to minimize the chance that one of the shorties comese back at you. It's one of the reasons for the "bet as much as you're willing to call" rule.

Here's an example I had happen to me just now. Villian opened in the CO for 3x and 14BB, I had about 7BB and shoved with 78. Villian thought about it a little and called with 55. If he'd shoved initially, there's no way I'm calling. We were racing, so inducing a shove doesn't really help him at all and he'd much rather win the blinds/antes for free.

As it was, I think I almost got a fold from him, which would have been awful.