The New BCS Picture

[rwperu34]

Big 10 Champ: Ohio State
Pac 10 Champ: USC
SEC champ: Arkansas/Florida
Big 12 Champ: Texas/Oklahoma/Nebraska
ACC Champ: Boston College/Wake/Maryland/GT
Big East Champ: Louisville/Rutgers/West Virginia

At Large #1: Michigan
At Large #2: Boise State if they beat Nevada
At Large #3/4: Notre Dame/Arkansas/Florida/Oklahoma/Auburn/LSU/Louisville/West Virginia/Rutgers

If Notre Dame beats USC, they will clinch an at large berth.

BCS title game: Ohio State vs USC/Michigan/Florida
There's plenty of other threads speculating who will play Ohio State in the BCS title game.

Fiesta Bowl: Big 12 vs Boise State
Boisie State is in if they beat Nevada. The Fiesta has last pick, and Boise State would probably be the least attractive of all the teams. The Big 12 is far from over.

Rose Bowl: Michigan/USC vs USC/At Large #3 (Oklahoma?)
The Rose Bowl will have first at large pick since they lost Ohio State

If USC beats Notre Dame, whoever doesn't play Ohio State will be here for sure. Both Michigan and USC have already played Notre Dame, so that might keep Notre Dame out of the Rose Bowl. Oklahoma looks like the highest profile team of the at large group, but they could still win the Big 12 and if they don't, they still have to get eligible. If Florida lost to Arkansas, they could be interesting as well.

If Notre Dame beats USC, USC is in the Rose Bowl, and could play Michigan if Florida moves ahead of Michigan to play for the title. Otherwise, same as above.


Orange Bowl: ACC Champ vs At Large #4
The ACC is obviously wide open right now. This looks to be the place for the Big East Champ. If the Sugar Bowl gets stuck, you probably see an SEC team here.

Sugar Bowl: Florida/Arkansa vs Notre Dame
I hate to say it, but I think Notre Dame is in regardless of what happens against USC. The Sugar Bowl picks after the Rose Bowl, and if the Rose Bowl passes on a rematch, Notre Dame brings in the most $$$. It comes down to the Rose Bowl's willingness to have a rematch.

If Notre Dame goes to the Rose Bowl, this is a really crappy spot for the Sugar Bowl. If the season ended today, they would have to pick from the Big East Champ, Boise State, another SEC team, and the Big East runner up. The Sugar Bowl, more than any other, needs Oklahoma to get eligible.

If Florida plays for the title, you could be looking at Notre Dame vs another SEC team.

One thing I'd like to point out here. If the season ended today, there would be 11 BCS eligible teams to fill 10 spots.