NL$200| Does pushing have a +ev expectation here?

[Acevader]

UTG is Raylapsley - a solid regular who wins.

Villain 2 is 31/5/1.5 after only 40 hands. I know nothing about him so he's as good as unknown.

I expect ray would fold AA to the hand action if I push, especially since he can't have Ac for any form of back-up.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

MP1: $200
MP2: $231.05
CO: $200.65
BTN: $279
Hero (SB): $198
BB: $242.05
UTG: $336.35
UTG+1: $83
UTG+2: $212.85

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $7</font>, 3 folds, MP2 calls $7, 2 folds, Hero calls $6, BB folds

Flop: ($23) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $23</font>, <font color="red">MP2 raises to $50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $191 and is All-In</font>, MP2 calls $141

Turn: ($428) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: ($428) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $428 Pot

[nickcee]

I think it's a good push, but I am not pushing to get AA or KK to fold. I think pushing is good, because against their respected ranges you can't be too far behind; not to mention decent fold equity.

[AlexB182]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's a good push, but I am not pushing to get AA or KK to fold. I think pushing is good, because against their respected ranges you can't be too far behind; not to mention decent fold equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

+1
I think his range is far wider than AA, KK here, don't you think?

[Acevader]

Yes Ray's range is much wider and I'm not trying to get him to fold AA-KK. I'm simply giving you additional information by telling you that I'm sure he WILL fold it if I push. Thus, I don't need to worry about Ray really unless he flopped a set cause he's always folding if I push in this spot.

[LifeTilt]

Ray pwns me because he sees so many flops in raised pots and waits for me to make an error. He opens quite a number of hands, but I don't have his UTG range pegged (only 20k sample). I like what you did, but as far as a +EV expectation here... I doubt it because I only foresee MP2 showing up with a set or QxQc/KK/AA. Although again I like what you did, probably not +ev. Someone could run some pokerstove and carve it out for us nicely. Fold equity? Meh... really close.

[Acevader]

Ok I did a quick stove exercise. I'm going to assume Ray as dead in this hand. All the hands he'd ever call with are in the range I've given to Villain 2 so they are accounted for anyway. If they both call then it only improves my situation.

With this range I'm assuming Villain 2 has fairly liberal calling tendencies. (JJ and 1010 for example) The range is as follows:

99+,33-22,5c4c,32s,32o

When I push it's for $191 and if called the final pot will yeild 41.5% equity for me. Against that range my hand equity is 42.2% thus I believe it's around a break even play even with no fold equity considered and I think it's reasonable to conclude I will get two folds here some of the time.

I think I've answered my own question - this is a no-brainer push.

[Renton]

i don't think it is, but im not sure.

Nevertheless, 3betting preflop and leading flop as played are much better.

[Acevader]

Ray is tricky post-flop, I'm usually not 3-betting his UTG raising range OOP with AK.

Could you explain why you think pushing is -EV in light of the range above? I've still got 39% equity if V2 doesn't call with 1010-JJ.

In fact, against a range of QQ+,33-22,93s-92s,5c4c,32s,93o-92o,32o, which includes some frankly stupid two-pair combo's and covers ALL hands that beat or dominate me I'm still 37.5%. I'm confident I make up the rest from fold equity even against this, the most extreme and IMHO unlikely calling range.

[mistere45]

[ QUOTE ]
Ray is tricky post-flop, I'm usually not 3-betting his UTG raising range OOP with AK.

Could you explain why you think pushing is -EV in light of the range above? I've still got 39% equity if V2 doesn't call with 1010-JJ.

In fact, against a range of QQ+,33-22,93s-92s,5c4c,32s,93o-92o,32o, which includes some frankly stupid two-pair combo's and covers ALL hands that beat or dominate me I'm still 37.5%. I'm confident I make up the rest from fold equity even against this, the most extreme and IMHO unlikely calling range.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im hearing some contradiciton here. How is Ray such a tricky player, when your 100% confident he will lay down Aces here? That confidence suggests to me that he plays his hands straight, and is easy to read. Not very tricky. And I think your first range was a bit loose. Second range is better, but doesnt those crazy 2 pair combos increase your equity in that second range?

[mistere45]

[ QUOTE ]

but doesnt those crazy 2 pair combos increase your equity in that second range?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ahh, nope. playing with Pokerstove, and it decreases equity. Weird, i thought a tighter range of QQ+, sets and the srtagith flush draw would yield you less equity, not more.

Board: 9c 3c 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.640% 41.57% 00.07% 7819 13.50 { AcKc }
Hand 1: 58.360% 58.29% 00.07% 10964 13.50 { QQ+, 33-22, 5c4c }