River decision with two pair

[bakku]

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I folded the river for the reasons most people gave. BB called and the woman showed AK for the win.

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I still think it's a good fold. Play this hand 30 more times and 28 times she'll show a better hand.

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judging from the way she played this hand i really doubt that.

[Mr Rick]

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I folded the river for the reasons most people gave. BB called and the woman showed AK for the win.

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I still think it's a good fold. Play this hand 30 more times and 28 times she'll show a better hand.

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I would normally fold this without thinking too much. Player behind still to act, she hasn't raised yet, how could she not have me beat, etc.

But I am trying to get myself to stop and think about this. My threshhold for this inner alarm on the river is about 10 big bets. My reaction to losing a pot like this, that I should have won, haunts me for the rest of the session. And with this much money in the pot, I am not good enough to know with certainty that I am behind (some people who post here may be).

So I am now starting to lose a lot of river bets in pots like this. Except when I am tired. Then I fold and cry.

[private joker]

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judging from the way she played this hand i really doubt that.

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Maybe, but the read we got was that she never raises on any street. I took that to mean "passive, only raises with the nuts." Once you see the results of this hand that establish her as a spaz, then of course you wouldn't expect her to always have you beat.

But I think if you replace her with a passive player (as the read tricked us into believing she was), then you're only good here like 3% of the time.

[gadflier]

In a truly passive situation that hand is good more like 25% or 50% of the time rather than 3% or 7% IMO. I would not fold that specific situation for one river bet without a clearer read. But I think you think you should have not folded because you "would have won" which is not the way to think about it.

[SNOWBALL]

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If you absolutely can't fold to a river raise, then check behind.

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Wait what? I can see saying that if he is less of a favorite when called, but puhhhhleeeez. He has two friggin pair. Ok it's not a monster on this board, but it's not like he is VBing KJ and afraid that someone is gonna show him KQ.

[SNOWBALL]

your hand is pretty gross. I just fold it preflop

[Mr. Reindeer]

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In a truly passive situation that hand is good more like 25% or 50% of the time rather than 3% or 7% IMO.


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That seems really high to me. Even if my read was better and I knew she could do something screwy, I wouldn't think I was good 25% of the time after she check raises.

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I would not fold that specific situation for one river bet without a clearer read. But I think you think you should have not folded because you "would have won" which is not the way to think about it.


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I'm trying to be as objective as I can and look at it based on what I knew at the table. I might not be succeeding, but I'm trying. Obviously I probably don't post it if I don't see her hand. My concern wasn't really if I was beat or not, I think most of us agree that I'm in bad shape after she raises. My thoughts were about whether or not the pot was big enough to be able to make a crying call. If my read was solid, I still think it's a fold. Obviously my read was bad given what she had.

I think my lesson, other than fold preflop and fold the flop, is that making a fold like this in a big pot is questionable when your read is only based on an hour of play.

[gaming_mouse]

I like your name.

I like a call on the flop.