Routine Blind Steal Turns Huge Pot

[TheOneWizard]

Hi everyone. This was like my 3rd hand at the table so I didn't have any reads.

Ultimate Bet
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50./$1.
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $123.75
CO: $24.10
Hero: $161.15
SB: $220.05
BB: $35.25

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($9, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $4.75</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $23.25</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($55.5, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $55.5</font>, Hero calls.

River: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($166.5, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero is all-in $78.4</font>

I've observed people love to check raise the flop when they think you have missed overs so I wasn't going anywhere with my flush draw. Other than that I'm open to all comments.

[bent96]

Why did you bet so small on the flop?

Ok, now you say he is probably just c/raising a cb? What is he doing on the turn? You have to give him credit for a hand after he pots the turn. He's not phased at all by that K. Turn is an instafold.

No offense, but you played this hand pretty badly postflop and this just feels like a brag because you hit.

[Dan Bitel]

flop call is terrible

[Haiku]

If you'd made your c-bet a more reasonable size, he might not have been so tempted to raise it thinking you were FOS. Fold the flop and make a note to think about taking free cards from this villain rather than betting your draws if you see him pulling this a lot.

[CappyAA]

[ QUOTE ]

I've observed people love to check raise the flop when they think you have missed overs so I wasn't going anywhere with my flush draw.


[/ QUOTE ]

This logic is terrible. db is right - your flop call was awful here.

[Pokey]

[ QUOTE ]

I've observed people love to check raise the flop when they think you have missed overs so I wasn't going anywhere with my flush draw. Other than that I'm open to all comments.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you really believe that, then three-bet all-in on the flop. If you're right and he's got air, you win the pot. If you're wrong and he's got a hand, you've got a likely 12 outs to a winner, twice. Even if we discount the Ks heavily and call it one out for the three of 'em, you're 1.6-to-1 against completing your flush by the river.

EV = F*($37) + (1-F)*(0.385*($170.90) + 0.615*(-$152.40)

This is +EV if he folds at least 43% of the time. Your opponent misses the flop 2/3rds of the time, and even if he hits with one pair (his most likely connection) he's probably dumping it to a three-bet all-in. Unless he's got a really killer hand like a set or MAYBE two pair, you fold him out and win the pot.

...but you've got to be right about your read. Do you trust it enough after three hands to risk your stack on it? If not, I think you need to fold the turn at the very least, if not the flop.

Your flush draw means that you can at least consider calling the flop; your opponent is offering you about 2-to-1 immediate odds, and if you can extract an extra $40ish from him on the turn and river when you hit your flush, the flop call is acceptable, though thin -- villain could have a better flush or a redraws to a full house, and that would really ruin your afternoon.

Even if you think the flop call is acceptable, the turn call is clearly -EV. Let's say you've got 11 outs (the two remaining K's and the nine hearts); if that's the case, you're about 3.2-to-1 against completing your hand on the river.

(Aside: If you want to count your 3s as outs, you're going to have a VERY hard time convincing us; in fact, you should probably discount your Ks and the J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] against the possibility of a set which then becomes a full house. Let's ignore all that crap and call it 11 outs on average.)

OK, so 3.2-to-1 odds getting an immediate 2-to-1; you need to make up 1.2*55 = $66 ON AVERAGE when you complete your draw just for this to be EV-neutral. That means that you hit your flush, you push your last $78.40 into the middle, and your opponent calls your all-in over 84% of the time. Does that sound likely? That when the only reasonable draw hits on the river and you come to life for the first time since the flop, your opponent calls a 50% pot bet more than 6 out of every 7 times? AND that when called your hand is good every time? Remember, if villain has A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] x[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] you're going to lose a fortune with your hand on the river -- that doesn't have to happen often to swing a safely +EV hand deeply into the negatives.

All told, this hand has all sorts of arguments in favor of dumping it, but the most important of them all is that SB really, really loves his hand for some reason. Spotting times when you could lose your whole stack even if you hit your draw is a valuable skill in no-limit hold'em. Identifying situations where you're highly unlikely to get proper odds on your bets is another valuable no-limit hold'em skill. In this hand, both of those situations pertain, and it would be in your best interests to routinely escape from this spots before you get in over your head.

[TheOneWizard]

Thanks for the replies guys. The reason I posted the hand is because villain folded to that river push despite great odds on his money, which affirmed my feeling that he was bluffing (he later bluffed off another large stack to me). Looking back a push on the flop would probably be best and only smooth call with a made hand like a pocket pair. I've made a lot of money at this level against fish who just keep hitting the pot button on their bluffs the second they think I'm weak or I signal weakness. I'll look into your suggestions though.