Pay Off Here?

[absoludicrous]

[ QUOTE ]

I'm not a fan of this. It makes it very easy for villain to bluff us.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
it's not easier to bluff a bet than a check.

[/ QUOTE ]


Right, but think about this. Let's say we value bet the river for a mild 1/2 pot. That's $9, villain then raises us to $27. Do we call the $18 raise or do we put our tail between our legs and fold, wasting $9 and a potential shot at c/c for the win.

This is my thought process, while it may be flawed, I totally dislike betting this river.

[Fallen Hero]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I'm not a fan of this. It makes it very easy for villain to bluff us.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
it's not easier to bluff a bet than a check.

[/ QUOTE ]


Right, but think about this. Let's say we value bet the river for a mild 1/2 pot. That's $9, villain then raises us to $27. Do we call the $18 raise or do we put our tail between our legs and fold, wasting $9 and a potential shot at c/c for the win.

This is my thought process, while it may be flawed, I totally dislike betting this river.

[/ QUOTE ]

pick up top and look around for blocking bets because I'm sure they explain the pros and cons of it better then I can.

[tannenj]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fwiw, i don't think villain played this so badly postflop (preflop is of course horrendous). i like a bigger bet on the river, but he has pretty much the implied odds he needs to call your turn bet if he thinks you'll pay off on the river. there is just not much you can do here.

[/ QUOTE ]

his turn call is horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

i disagree, i think the flop and the turn are fine; it's villain's preflop aciton and river action that are weak.

i think the turn call is fine if villain thinks hero will call $12+ on the river. of course, after villain only bets $8 on the river, it is fair to say that he has made a mistake. if villain thinks hero will call $12 on the river, villain is getting 24:6=4:1 on a call, and that's about his chance of hitting the flush.

[Fallen Hero]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fwiw, i don't think villain played this so badly postflop (preflop is of course horrendous). i like a bigger bet on the river, but he has pretty much the implied odds he needs to call your turn bet if he thinks you'll pay off on the river. there is just not much you can do here.

[/ QUOTE ]

his turn call is horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

i disagree, i think the flop and the turn are fine; it's villain's preflop aciton and river action that are weak.

i think the turn call is fine if villain thinks hero will call $12+ on the river. of course, after villain only bets $8 on the river, it is fair to say that he has made a mistake. if villain thinks hero will call $12 on the river, villain is getting 24:6=4:1 on a call, and that's about his chance of hitting the flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

we're not calling the river if it isn't exactly the 8c, so it's a bad call.

[tannenj]

as i said, it depends what villain thinks hero will call on the river. i don't think you can make such a concrete statement about this.

[Fallen Hero]

[ QUOTE ]
as i said, it depends what villain thinks hero will call on the river. i don't think you can make such a concrete statement about this.

[/ QUOTE ]

of course it depends but generally people love to overrate their implied odds and this villain did it(as most villains that call psb on the turn)

[tannenj]

point taken, but i think this is quite a bit fuzzier than you're making it out to be (at worst, i'd say the turn call is "meh," never "horrible").

hero called villain's $8 bet on the river ... does $4 more really make hero fold? does $6 more?

[Fallen Hero]

[ QUOTE ]
point taken, but i think this is quite a bit fuzzier than you're making it out to be (at worst, i'd say the turn call is "meh," never "horrible").

hero called villain's $8 bet on the river ... does $4 more really make hero fold? does $6 more?

[/ QUOTE ]

if the river is any club other than an 8 a simple $6 bet is enough for us to fold.

[gimmetheloot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I'm not a fan of this. It makes it very easy for villain to bluff us.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's not easier to bluff a bet than a check.


[ QUOTE ]
Secondly, our hand is very good for picking off a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't imagine a hand that calls the flop and turn and feels the need to bluff the river.

PS: that being said I don't like blocking bets below $100NL unless you have a read, players are just not agressive enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you not think that if opponents are so passive that blocking bets would not work better as opponents will be more apt to call in a spot for a small bet where if checked to they would have made a real bet into you?