Quick LHE Noob variance question

[Gelford]

This is not a how big a roll do you need question or anything like that, I am well aware of how disaster can strike.

This is more a question of how big swings you typically have playing 6 max LHE


In 6 max NLHE under 5 buyins (500bb) is something that goes unnoticed, while +5 buyins starts getting noticed, tho it still happens once in a while.


So my question is here, as I have no feel for this game ... what size swings are unnoticed just a day at the office swings and when should alarmbells slowly start to appear ??? (Variance is a biatch and so on, I know, but I hope you understand my question ... and not go into a ZOMG 1000BB for the win flame) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[kaby]

70-100BB mid session swings are not standard but pretty frequent for me

[TheWunderkind]

can agree with the above..standard is like 20-50BB

when i played at crypto i had like 3 or 4 500+ BB swings in 30 K hands but that was because the games were awful and i did play worse then i do now...it depends on what games you play in. 500-1000BBs are possible (or course bigger too).

[Heisenb3rg]

This question is highly dependent on your limit, the game make up , your style and skill.

Back when I was playing 1/2 and 2/4 I considered a 50BB a large short term swing.
The game was composed of probabily 1/3 super passives 1/3 partially passive and a random TAG.
I folded my BB way more often and played much tighter post-flop.

With my style at 5/10 where an average game (with good selction is) a retarded LAG, a fairly passive player, a mediocore LAG, and 2 agressive TAG's
combined with my much looser style 50-100BB is a common (4-6 hours 3-4 tabling) day for me.

The more agressive your games and the less edge you have the more bankroll you need. People throw out numbers a lot, but a lot of these are pretty adhoc guesses based off random standard deviations that they think is accurate to their average game.. Within a few hundred BB they're pretty decent.

Probabily at a game like 5/10+ you'd want 800+ BB
At 1/2 and 2/4 with good game selection you'd want 500BB+.

How I try to figure out if I'm winning is I review a t&#$W*load of hands after my session and compare my play to my opponents, if I see them making a bajillion more mistakes than me, I assume im winning enough to beat the rake.

Basically, the variance is a bitch, and will never let you truly know your win-rate, so really the best way to know if you're winning is become very comfortable with poker theory, and analyze your play after sessions. Knowing the right decison after 3-5 minutes of thought is much easier than 5 after 5 seconds of thought.

But if you drop something like 1500BB at the small stakes, theres a 99.9% chance you got problems [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Gelford]

Thx ... 100BB is really nothing in my book, so that is comforting


And thank for all the good poker advice Heiselberg, I appreicate the effort, the humour and the your big heart [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]


When I'm wondering if I'm winning I usually just log enough hands until the confidence interval is to my liking.

[kaby]

[ QUOTE ]
Back when I was playing 1/2 and 2/4 I considered a 50BB a large short term swing.

[/ QUOTE ]

You did? Those are pretty standard for me TT

[sethypooh21]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Back when I was playing 1/2 and 2/4 I considered a 50BB a large short term swing.

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You did? Those are pretty standard for me TT

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Yeah, a session hasn't really started until I've been up and down 50bbs at least once. (I kid, sort of.)

Playing my way out of 3rd lifetime -300BB swing atm, Saturday was a bloodbath, anyone who was sitting with me, you are welcome for the mobnies...

Not being underrolled for the game I'm playing makes the swings sooooo much easier, let me tell you.