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#21
09-28-2007, 07:30 AM
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Re: What IS Luck?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Luck simply is a shorter word for variance. [/ QUOTE ] I suppose. Variance is EV neutral, though, and luck doesn't have to be. Luck could be some + or -EV thing that just happened to be out of my control. [/ QUOTE ] Luck is EV neutral except for fools! Sorry, vhawk01! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Well, thats sort of exactly the question being asked, and now your just asserting you are correct. If luck is just "everything that is out of your control" then it definitely doesn't have to be EV neutral. If luck = variance, then sure. 
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#22
09-28-2007, 08:05 AM
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Re: What IS Luck?
Luck isn't a thing. It's a word to describe things you don't understand or don't like.
Most people don't understand variance, so they call it a lucky night when they hit all their draws for a session. People don't understand how their perception could be off so they call it unlucky when they stub their toe. People don't like thinking their team isn't as good as anyother team so they call it an unlucky bounce when a short stop misses the ball allowing the winning run to score.
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#23
09-28-2007, 08:12 AM
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Re: What IS Luck?
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Many people believe that when they stub their toe or pop their tire, house burns down it's because of lady luck. How does deviation from ev apply to these cases? [/ QUOTE ] Example: P(House burns down) = 1/10,000 P(House doesn't burn down) = 9,999/10,000 Value of house burning down = -$100,000 EV = -$100,000/10,000 = -$10 House burns down. Actual result: $99,990 below EV. Hence bad luck. MaxWeiss: [ QUOTE ] Every game and situation has a skill element--our ability to collect and properly utilize the available information. [/ QUOTE ] How does the roulette wheel in your avatar fit this claim?
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#25
09-28-2007, 10:31 AM
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Re: What IS Luck?
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I think "luck" is an illusion that we create in our minds because of emotional attachment, not truth. [/ QUOTE ] Really? What a weird theory.
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#26
09-28-2007, 10:34 AM
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Re: What IS Luck?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Luck simply is a shorter word for variance. [/ QUOTE ] I suppose. Variance is EV neutral, though, and luck doesn't have to be. Luck could be some + or -EV thing that just happened to be out of my control. [/ QUOTE ] Luck is EV neutral except for fools! Sorry, vhawk01! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Well, thats sort of exactly the question being asked, and now your just asserting you are correct. If luck is just "everything that is out of your control" then it definitely doesn't have to be EV neutral. If luck = variance, then sure. [/ QUOTE ] Everything out of your control is the source of variance, vhawk. And over an infinite period, it is EV neutral. Unless you think everything out of your control hates you or something. Can you provide an example of a source of "luck" (out of your control) that has a + or - EV?
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#27
09-28-2007, 11:33 AM
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Re: What IS Luck?
[ QUOTE ]
Most people don't understand variance, so they call it a lucky night when they hit all their draws for a session. People don't understand how their perception could be off so they call it unlucky when they stub their toe. People don't like thinking their team isn't as good as anyother team so they call it an unlucky bounce when a short stop misses the ball allowing the winning run to score. [/ QUOTE ] I think it's more along the lines of "Most people don't understand X so they overlook luck and put too much emphasis on the result." Also I think I might be forced to agree with Midge, which seems kind of odd to me. Luck and variance are both neutral EV. If you think one can be +EV depending on the actor, then what you're observing is inherently not "luck."
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#28
09-28-2007, 12:18 PM
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Re: What IS Luck?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Luck simply is a shorter word for variance. [/ QUOTE ] I suppose. Variance is EV neutral, though, and luck doesn't have to be. Luck could be some + or -EV thing that just happened to be out of my control. [/ QUOTE ] Luck is EV neutral except for fools! Sorry, vhawk01! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Well, thats sort of exactly the question being asked, and now your just asserting you are correct. If luck is just "everything that is out of your control" then it definitely doesn't have to be EV neutral. If luck = variance, then sure. [/ QUOTE ] Everything out of your control is the source of variance, vhawk. And over an infinite period, it is EV neutral. Unless you think everything out of your control hates you or something. Can you provide an example of a source of "luck" (out of your control) that has a + or - EV? [/ QUOTE ] being born in the 1st world in peace time rather than starving in a war zone. Fairly pleased with myself for having had the sense to avoid the WW1 trenches as well. chez
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#29
09-28-2007, 01:09 PM
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Re: What IS Luck?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Luck simply is a shorter word for variance. [/ QUOTE ] I suppose. Variance is EV neutral, though, and luck doesn't have to be. Luck could be some + or -EV thing that just happened to be out of my control. [/ QUOTE ] Luck is EV neutral except for fools! Sorry, vhawk01! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Well, thats sort of exactly the question being asked, and now your just asserting you are correct. If luck is just "everything that is out of your control" then it definitely doesn't have to be EV neutral. If luck = variance, then sure. [/ QUOTE ] Everything out of your control is the source of variance, vhawk. And over an infinite period, it is EV neutral. Unless you think everything out of your control hates you or something. Can you provide an example of a source of "luck" (out of your control) that has a + or - EV? [/ QUOTE ] Hmmm...maybe not. What if I was born naturally gifted at some skill? This is obviously +EV, but it is entirely based on luck, right? What if I was just born tall? Its pretty much a slam-dunk that being tall, in the US, in 2007, is significantly +EV. But its just lucky, right?
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#30
09-28-2007, 01:09 PM
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Re: What IS Luck?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Luck simply is a shorter word for variance. [/ QUOTE ] I suppose. Variance is EV neutral, though, and luck doesn't have to be. Luck could be some + or -EV thing that just happened to be out of my control. [/ QUOTE ] Luck is EV neutral except for fools! Sorry, vhawk01! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Well, thats sort of exactly the question being asked, and now your just asserting you are correct. If luck is just "everything that is out of your control" then it definitely doesn't have to be EV neutral. If luck = variance, then sure. [/ QUOTE ] Everything out of your control is the source of variance, vhawk. And over an infinite period, it is EV neutral. Unless you think everything out of your control hates you or something. Can you provide an example of a source of "luck" (out of your control) that has a + or - EV? [/ QUOTE ] being born in the 1st world in peace time rather than starving in a war zone. Fairly pleased with myself for having had the sense to avoid the WW1 trenches as well. chez [/ QUOTE ] Thank you, this is a good one too.
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