What IS Luck?

[onesandzeros]

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Results tell the truth.

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Results often do not tell the truth, due to the presence of luck.

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Short term results mean little to nothing. I'm talking the long run. The deeper you go sample wise the closer you get to the mean of your true current EV which is not static.

[ALawPoker]

Luck is the occurrence of things that a human could not have rationally foreseen, and should not have been acting with the assumption of its likely occurrence.

It's a sign that we're not omniscient, and that life is still fun. Imagine the broader ramifications of a poker game that had no element of luck. It would soon be dry.

[MidGe]

Luck simply is a shorter word for variance.

[vhawk01]

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Luck simply is a shorter word for variance.

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I suppose. Variance is EV neutral, though, and luck doesn't have to be. Luck could be some + or -EV thing that just happened to be out of my control.

[onesandzeros]

"Luck is a term I would use to describe short-term deviations from expectations."

Many people believe that when they stub their toe or pop their tire, house burns down it's because of lady luck. How does deviation from ev apply to these cases?

"Are you wanting to debate semantics?"

No, but the subject is fascinating since you mention it.

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I think "luck" is an illusion that we create in our minds because of emotional attachment, not truth. We create this illusion because then we can blame something or someone other then ourselves for the bad results we often get through bad play. Results tell the truth.

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"This is nonsense."


Nice explanation.

"The best players in the world can complain about bad luck. You and I play a simple game. If a coin comes up heads I win $2. If the coin comes up tails I lose $1. If we play the game 20 times and I lose money, can I complain about my bad luck?"

Even tho you lost you gained in the long run because you have an edge. Why would you complain about the short term illusion of loss when you have an edge? Few experts believe in luck because they understand its relativity. Its all math.

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I live in a casino town and you see purple haired lady's talking all the time about how unlucky they were while gambling. How can you possibly expect to beat a game that you have a - edge in and then blame it on something other then you? Seems to define the word insanity!

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I think it is insane to let other people's ignorance bewilder you.

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Human psychology is fascinating I think. Just because I mentioned purple hair, doesn't mean any disrespect to older ladies. I like purple on ladies and I have the utmost respect for them as individuals.

[m_the0ry]

Luck is the remainder when you do analysis post hoc.

[onesandzeros]

Let me re phrase what I meant which I think came out wrong.

"Results tell the truth." should be

"Results don't lie in the long run"

We can only calculate our EV by documenting results over a statistically significant sample. If results don't tell the truth then the EV we think we have doesn't really exist?

[pzhon]

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"Results don't lie in the long run"


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Nothing says you have to play enough to hit the long run.

If you play Russian roulette, you won't hit the long run. You can still talk about getting lucky, or that someone else was unlucky. A casual player who usually plays for small stakes but who takes a shot at the WSOP main event is probably not going to hit the long run in MTTs in their lifetime.

By the way, it seems to be a common misconception that there is some magic threshold below which results are meaningless, and above which results are meaningful. In fact, as you accumulate data from repeated experiments, your results gradually become more accurate reflections of your expected value, and they do not ever become perfect.

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We can only calculate our EV by documenting results over a statistically significant sample.

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Wrong. We can estimate EV by creating applicable mathematical models and analyzing them. These models do not have to be perfect to give much better information than the results alone.

[MidGe]

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Luck simply is a shorter word for variance.

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I suppose. Variance is EV neutral, though, and luck doesn't have to be. Luck could be some + or -EV thing that just happened to be out of my control.

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Luck is EV neutral except for fools! Sorry, vhawk01! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[MaxWeiss]

This is extremely easy, although so many people get it confused. Luck is a measure of our uncertainty. Every game and situation has a skill element--our ability to collect and properly utilize the available information. Luck is the fact that our info is always incomplete and hence we never know the entire situation with 100% certainty.