3-bet river with top set?

[Lucky_River]

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB completes, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, SB folds.

River: (8 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero??

[TRWIII]

A read on the villain would be a little helpful here. Will he chase a gutshot without getting good enough odds? Will he cap a rivered two pair? Will he open limp KQ or KJ (or K8) UTG?

The only thing we're worried about here is AT. Against most opponents at this level, I think you're in good enough shape to make three betting this river a comfortable +EV move.

TRWIII

[PorkchopDJG]

What about 9T for a flopped straight?
If he had that I think he would raise the turn but maybe he was sucking the others in with no flush draw to worry about.
I 3 bet the river and crying call a raise.

[TRWIII]

I suppose he could have flopped a straight, but at this level the villain would have to be way more passive then my experience would indicate for this to be a likely holding. I cant remember the last random 2/4 player I saw pull a move like this with a flopped straight. If he had flopped it, the average PS 2/4 villain would either have raised the flop (ooh... Ive got a straight) or gone nuts on the turn (the correct play).

The villain having flopped the straight isnt out of the question, but without a read I think it is sufficiently unlikely to not be a huge factor in my river decision.

Oh, and even though it's likely incorrect, I crying call a river 4-bet hoping that he overplayed a river two pair more often than 1 time out of 19.

TRWIII

[Hair_of_the_Dog]

If this were live 2/4 I'd say that it was likely that the villain was chasing a gut shot and would definitely have limped with AT. AT would make him a double gut shot on the flop with 1 over card. That would be (3)As, (4)9s, (4)Ks (only 2 really, but he won't know that) 1.5x2 for the double gut shot. Add that up and you'd get: (4)Ks for the nuts (4)9s for the bottom of a strait so make it 2.5 outs (3)As for a pair, so make it 1.5 outs = 4+2.5+1.5 = 8 outs. He might be estimating 14 outs, but that would be an over estimation, though 8 might be a little pessimistic as well.

[Lucky_River]

Thanks
I 3-bet, but i didn't fell very good about it.
He capped and I call.
He Overplayed Q J

[tyler_cracker]

DON'T POST RESULTS. they don't matter, and they [censored] up the discussion.

[Lucky_River]

[ QUOTE ]
DON'T POST RESULTS. they don't matter, and they [censored] up the discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know but for me the discusion was closed. I had a few answers and all say 3-bet and if get capped crying call.

[tyler_cracker]

and what did we gain by you posting the results?

it's a bad habit. just don't do it.

[ProfessorBen]

This is pretty nitty. If OP is done with the discussion, he has can post the results if he wants. Shouldn't be a big deal either way.