3-bet river with top set?

[Christian_Peters]

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One more raise.

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y?

put him on a range he raises on the river (all two pair or better on this river?) and say what u think he ll do with each holding to ur 3bet (call or cap) and tell me the EV of this 3bet.

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A = fraction of times villain was drawing to the nut str8, or slow played the flop nut st8 on the turn

B = fraction of times villain was calling down with a pair and caught 2pair on the turn or river.

A <<<<< B

1*A - 2*B > 0


You disagree?

[SeaEagle]

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1*A - 2*B > 0

You disagree?

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I'm not sure I understand your equation, but I think I disagree.

To recap earlier conversation:
Number of AT combinations: 16
Number of KQ+KJ combinations: 6 (hands that made 2 pair on the river)

If your opponent has AT, your 3 bet will get capped, costing you 2BBs. So on the surface, your 3-bet will cost you 32BBs for every 6BBs you win.

Even if you adjust the win/loss for times UTG limped with K8 or waited until the river to raise QJ or a set, I don't think you can possibly overcome the 5-1 odds you appear to be giving on the river 3-bet.

[Christian_Peters]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
One more raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

y?

put him on a range he raises on the river (all two pair or better on this river?) and say what u think he ll do with each holding to ur 3bet (call or cap) and tell me the EV of this 3bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

A = fraction of times villain was drawing to the nut str8, or slow played the flop nut st8 on the turn

B = fraction of times villain was calling down with a pair and caught 2pair on the turn or river.

A <<<<< B

1*A - 2*B > 0


You disagree?

[/ QUOTE ]


Ok. I've been thinking about this hand and the more I think about it, the more I agree with jstill. The only hand that beats ours is a str8 and I think he caps with either str8, so I think the following EV equation is good:

1*A - 2*B = 0

We need for A to be more than twice B, no?

The rest is str8 forward combos and as I see it, you are not ahead here more than 2wice the amount of times you are behind, but it's close.

AT - 16
9T - 16 (12)(but we can discount a bit because he didn't raise the turn making this a little less likely, say only 12)

88 - 3
JJ - 3 (0.5)(we can discount this b/c no raise pf, say only 0.5)
QQ - 3 (0.25) (we can discount this b/c no raise pf, say only 0.25 - 1 time in 12)

KQ - 3
JK - 3
8K - 3
Q8 - 9
J8 - 9
Q6 - 9
J6 - 9 (4)(this is a little too lose for an EP limp on Stars 2/4 for an unknown - couple this with the fact that it would be retarded to play a hand like this this way - discount this to say like 4)


Thats 28/71.75 that we are behind and 43.75/71.75 that we are ahead.

43.75/28 ~ 1.56

So, we should just call, but it's close.


Please correct me if anyone disagrees with any of the above.

[SeaEagle]

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Please correct me if anyone disagrees with any of the above.

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I like your logical approach and I agree with it.

I don't think you discount the crap hands nearly enough. Even on Stars 2/4 most players know to throw away many of these hands UTG or at least to raise weak 2-pairs before the river. (I'd also discount T9 more than 25% for the same reasons)

And even with the non-discounted approach you take, this bet is costing .25BB. That's not very close, IMO.