$100 NLTRN Middle pair late game

[Kharlog]

The opponent is very tight and has been folding every raise postflop. He got stacks even a few hands ago slowrolling against my top pair. I think the opponent could do that raise without a king because I have been pushing him around a lot and have never shown a hand. So would you call in this situation (getting 2:1)?

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t50/t100
2 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: t1465
BB: t1535

Pre-flop: (2 players) Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to t200</font>, BB calls t100 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t300)</font>.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t400, 2 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets t300</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises all-in t1335</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero ... ?</font>.

[ChicagoRy]

If he's a smart tight player then he probably shows up enough with a bluff shove here for you to call and get very thin profit.

This is a very tough spot and I'd imagine you can answer this question best based on the way the game has gone thus far.

Without something to hang onto as far as a read or strong hunch/intuition I would probably fold.

Also, would a 200-250 bet here make him fold just as much if he's this tight? It's fairly minor but it makes it a little easier to make a correct fold in the situations where it is correct to fold.

[ChicagoRy]

Nobody else has an opinion?

The one post of Kharlog's I reply to ironically has zero other repliers, yet his other posts get a handful minimum... don't hate.

[soop]

Kharlog's posts pretty much always give me a headache. They are such difficult spots. (That's definitely a compliment)

For example that is such a great spot for villian to bluff, but he is tight, so he probably isn't bluffing, but then villian knows he is tight, so he knows he can get away with more, but op knows that and so on.

I guess I would call, but I am giving no justification why.

[bluffbetter]

What range do you give him for his preflop call?


I think players at this level mostly will know that it's correct to make a few big moves in a game, so regardless of his tightness up to now, I think you have to include some bluff % here, but it's tough to know how much.

How often have you min-raised, or just raised in SB in general at this blind level and maye the last one, in this game?

And have you bet 3/4 pot when you've had good hands shown down?

[Kharlog]

[ QUOTE ]
What range do you give him for his preflop call?


I think players at this level mostly will know that it's correct to make a few big moves in a game, so regardless of his tightness up to now, I think you have to include some bluff % here, but it's tough to know how much.

How often have you min-raised, or just raised in SB in general at this blind level and maye the last one, in this game?

And have you bet 3/4 pot when you've had good hands shown down?

[/ QUOTE ]

Opponents preflop call range could be something like A3, K4, Q3s, J5s, T6s etc, 22+. Though I don't remember that game still that clearly so that I could be very precise. I generally almost always minraise or fold at this blind level unless I get tricky so I suppose I've been doing that in this game too. I usually cbet something like 3/4 pot and in this game I haven't shown a hand for a while. So he might be inclined to do something like this with lesser hand than pair of kings I think.

[APXG]

I'd never ever bet this flop vs. the opponent you described with those stacks, but as played, a call seems +EV. I'd expect a turn lead at least 33% of the time, maybe more like 50, and given a fairly typical PF minraise calling range, you beat tons of hands in calldown mode.

[ChicagoRy]

On second thought, even from a bad tight player, with these stacks this deep into the game I can see a lot of people doing this with A5/A4. If Q5/Q4 and J5 are really in his range as well this is probably a good lead/call.

I can't see checking this flop all that much against this guy if the above is the case or if he is a good TAG, you're probably profitable enough here to be happy reviewing this hand a second time.

There are some things that would change this, but I'm thinking this is a call a lot more than I did when reading this hand the first time, and I'm liking a lead more and more.

[Kharlog]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd never ever bet this flop vs. the opponent you described with those stacks, but as played, a call seems +EV. I'd expect a turn lead at least 33% of the time, maybe more like 50, and given a fairly typical PF minraise calling range, you beat tons of hands in calldown mode.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to explain why don't you ever bet this flop?

[APXG]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd never ever bet this flop vs. the opponent you described with those stacks, but as played, a call seems +EV. I'd expect a turn lead at least 33% of the time, maybe more like 50, and given a fairly typical PF minraise calling range, you beat tons of hands in calldown mode.

[/ QUOTE ]

Care to explain why don't you ever bet this flop?

[/ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
I'd expect a turn lead at least 33% of the time, maybe more like 50, and given a fairly typical PF minraise calling range, you beat tons of hands in calldown mode.

[/ QUOTE ]

In other words, pretty much any opponent, but especially one that is reluctant to raise, will bluff more if you check the flop. Also, there is a decent chance you will not be stacked by a king(he may check turn or turn+river may be scary enough for him to miss a bet, etc), whereas if you bet with the plan of calling, you get stacked 100% of the time by a king. The only advantage of betting is that you will on average get more action from a 4 or 5 than if you check.

However, even with the 4 / 5 taken into account, you must agree either a call or fold is marginal(this is usually true anytime you have to post an all-in call decision). Given that prior to any flop action you have a mid pair on a dry, 1 facecard flop, and in position, reducing your equity to marginal levels is basically giving away money to your opponent.