$550 NLTRN - Finesse Baby

[cwar]

Converters all suck so its going by hand. Villain is very loose preflop and instantly acts on nearly every decision. He never donked out the entire match and has called down very lightly the entire match (in a crappy not good way) and has also c/raised quite liberally. My image is very loose and my last two buttons I minraised and cbet nearly pot and he folded. Villain will attack my limps very widely if I limp but 3bet only once the entire match.

Hero 1400
Villain 1600

Hero has T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] OTB and raises to 200
Villain calls.

Flop comes 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Villain snap checks.
Hero checks.

Turn 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villain snap checks
Hero checks

River K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Villain snap pots
Hero ponders and pushes

[RicherThanRichie]

I don't think he is necisarily that strong but given your flop check an 8 seems very unlikely from you. (unless you really would check an 8 behind on that flop) I don't think you ever fold a king and Ace high/any pair probably calls. I don't really like it but I play a lot lower my 2 cents

[dboy23]

well your odds here to try a bluff are great. I guess the only thing that could really help is if you have seen him take this line before for value.

can he make hero calls? that would also be a great read to have here.

[bbbushu]

hmmn i havent really even started out yet at HU NL but when there's so few hands we could reasonably be strong with and our image is loose and villain is loose and the pot isn't that big (is it? i dunno for NL) all just seems like a really bad place to bluff/raise.

bbbushu

oh yeah - i assume the size of the blinds matter

[dboy23]

er, seeing that you said he would call down lightly (and in a bad way) the chances are probably higher that he talks himself into a call here, don't you think? You could try to work out how often he calls to get your EV on this, but that is always a tough % to assign someone.

[cwar]

Well this is a $550 he isnt an idiot, the thing is he would definitely check A hi to showdown and he would never play 4x or 6x like this. Its very possible he played 8x like this but not every time and thats a pretty tight range of hands, its also possible Kx is here but somewhat less likely, yes he is calling light here but he cant have any hands to make light calls with once he snap pots clearly.

[ChicagoRy]

If he's never donked the flop why is 8x not played like this almost everytime by him?

[cwar]

Draws, altho I do think he plays 8x a lot like this here. Also if his range is 8x or nothing obviously bluffing is fine here.

[bbbushu]

how would we expect him to play 6x or 4x? this is more of a semi-hijack than a question regarding your play

[ChicagoRy]

[ QUOTE ]
Draws, altho I do think he plays 8x a lot like this here. Also if his range is 8x or nothing obviously bluffing is fine here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was just asking a very specific question. Is 75s in his range here? Yes I do realize you guys are 14 bb deep effectively, just wonder if he's that loose or not.

What kind of bluffs has he ran previously? Has he bluffed into your loose image or let you take the offensive?

The problem with this is you have to really know your opponent in my mind. Unless this is a brag post you probably do not know him well enough to say "he doesn't have a K trying to get to showdown" or "he won't call with A high" or more importantly "he leads this with air a ton."

The odds are good for the bluff but I don't think the logic is necessarily there. Maybe the way you presented the hand has to do with that, perhaps you had the read and were very sure of the actual size of his bluffing and calling range, if so then I would say "nh cwar." Otherwise I would fold.