Very thin river value shove

shpanko · #1 10-25-2007, 04:04 AM

Villain is like 34/23/3.5 over 40 hands or so. I should have a tag image. he's beein reraising very liberally hence the pf call and flop call. He checked the turn and river without much hesitation. Too thin? What do we think? He's definitely not very good and if he does manage to have a non-flus monster I think I could see him calling. I dont know. Am I turning my hand into a bluff? I shoved for value.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $447
UTG: $517.50
Hero (BTN): $205.40
SB: $189.15

Pre-Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $7, SB folds, BB raises to $22, Hero calls $15

Flop: ($45) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB bets $34, Hero calls $34

Turn: ($113) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($113) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $149.40 and is All-In

cs3 · #2 10-25-2007, 04:12 AM

i think youre bluffing out like 9c9x/TcTx more than value betting anything here.
what do you expect him to call with there? He 3bet PF and then shut down after u called his c-bet... not many hands he can have that 3bet PF, then check turn and ch/call river that you beat. i think he shows up with like JcJx more than AK/KK/whatever when he calls

also why not shove the turn? you're waaaaay more likely to get value from sets on the turn, than you are on the river.
which is why bluffing on the river on this board, is better than bluff shoving the turn.

KakiTee · #3 10-25-2007, 04:30 AM

tbh i think a smaller overbet is better against optimists $120.

- i like it though (with enough reads)

aislephive · #4 10-25-2007, 04:33 AM

Dude wtfffffffffffffffffff are you doing? =/

shpanko · #5 10-25-2007, 04:34 AM

My (limited" reads were that the guy was a bit overaggro, and definitely not very good. His fairly quick checks on the turn and river really suggested to me he didn't have a club, so I was hoping I could make my shove look bluffy and maybe get looked up by Ax/AK/AA/KK etc. And if for some reason it folds out Tc/9c well then that's an added bonus. I don't really believe in "two-way bets" and so I really only mean this bet for value just to set the record straight.

Irishman07 · #6 10-25-2007, 04:42 AM

I think him checking quickly twice is a fairly reliable tell. If he's got the J or Q of clubs he's gotta think for a second if he wants to vbet or let you bluff. And against some players they will assume you have either the nuts or air and are more apt to make hero calls with lower flushes, AA etc. I'd prefer a better read on opponent to know if he makes hero calls, but even without a good read I kinda like this.

If you get called and lose at least you can convince yourself it's good for metagame.

Irishman07 · #7 10-25-2007, 04:45 AM

As cs3 noted though it may just be better to shove turn as he probably will call with a set. Although lately it seems if you check behind turn and bet river people always assume you are bluffing.

scallop · #8 10-25-2007, 04:53 AM

I doubt this guy ever checks J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] twice, does he?

I dont really see what your bet is trying to accomplish. It looks like it is a bluff, which I dont think it is - I think it's more of a value bet vs villians river range. But again, I don't see him ever calling.

Why not bet 1/2 pot OR check behind. SHoving seems like the mos RIO thing you could do.

I really hate shoving turn, because the iformation we have is totaly different to the informaton we have by the river, that is that 2 checks >>>>weaker>>>> 1 check, and 1 check can be a slow play, but 2 checks like I said aboe never is.

Also, I smaller value bet might get called by sets. I dont think a shove will, just because it looks like a it could be a bluff.

bozzer · #9 10-25-2007, 05:53 AM

[ QUOTE ]
SHoving seems like the mos RIO thing you could do.

[/ QUOTE ]

eh?

OP, from description it sounds like he can look you up light sometimes here. I like your turn check/river bet line more than a turn bet - doesn't a set bet the turn mostly?

holdme · #10 10-25-2007, 05:59 AM

merging ranges. you'll bluff better hands sometimes. you'll vbet worse hands sometimes. i have no experience doing overbets myself so i dont feel qualified to say whether the bet amount was good or bad. fwiw, i think you're running a successful bluff against a lot of flushes.