NL10 AKs is 3-bet by solid regular, who might think I steal

WantToLearn · #1 10-25-2007, 04:44 PM

Ok, when this hand came up, I was kind of ashamed that I need advice to even play AKs preflop, but here goes.

The villain is a solid regular. He is like 15/3,5/1,7 over 285 hands. I play like 16/7/2,6 and he might know that.
Now, his normal 3-betting range should be like JJ+, AK. But he might have noticed that I am way more loose and aggro from button and cutoff than my average preflop stats. I wouldn´t be too surprised if he´s the kind of player that can adjust (or is just expecting steal raises by default). He certainly might add at least TT and AQs at least every now and then.

So what do you do?

I was considering
1. shoving, in the hopes that he might fold JJ or so which is a favorite against my holding
2. calling and see a flop for fit-or-fold, but that seemed too weak
3. calling and see a flop and commit anyway (i.e. raise ai to the c-bet I expect here), hoping he might lay down a better hand on a say Q high flop (especialy JJ or so).

What´s your line?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP2 ($8.75)
MP3 ($9.60)
Hero ($13.95)
Button ($14.95)
SB ($14.25)
BB ($9.90)
UTG ($7.95)
UTG+1 ($9.60)
MP1 ($9.80)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
5 folds, Hero raises to $0.45, 2 folds, BB raises to $1.6, Hero ???

Chargers In 07 · #2 10-25-2007, 04:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The villain is a solid regular. He is like 15/3,5/1,7 over 285 hands

[/ QUOTE ] far from solid and he doesn't "resteal". Fold and play pots with fish down there. No need to make high variance plays.

ElectricWaffles · #3 10-25-2007, 04:58 PM

From his stat's i'd probably infer that he was a coward when it came to raising preflop.

He may well have thought you were stealing, but I still think that somebody with 3.5% PFR isn't 3betting you with garbage. I'd assume that most of the time it's a coin flip if you shove, but I suppose it's still possible that he's doing this with AQ, some of the time at least.

I think chargers has a good point here. You can either ride the variance and jam it in the middle, or just fold and wait for a more certain situation.

As for calling and seeing the flop. I think you make a pair or better about 30% of the time. Is he a station post flop? If so then I think you can call and fit/fold, knowing that you've got the correct implied odds if you hit. Not totally sure about that though.

I dont know how much fold equity there is if you get AI. He looks like a wuss PF. Does that mean he folds too much PF too, or does his 3bet mean "I'm getting AI here if you let me". Not sure.

My play would depend on him. If he's a station i'm calling and looking for a good flop. If he folds too much i'm jamming (because of the fold equity + coin flip combined). If he's a rock then i'll just lay it down and pick a better spot, because I would save myself the heartache that variance brings.

EN09 · #4 10-25-2007, 04:59 PM

if you're feeling lucky, call and see what the flop brings and play poker.

at 15/3.5/1.7 i wouldn't necessarily call him "solid". "regular" maybe, but not "solid". his pfr is way too low and his agg factor is basically nonexistent.

he has a premium pair or AK hisself.

EN

AlexB182 · #5 10-25-2007, 04:59 PM

Agree with most of what chargers wrote, except that I wouldn't fold here. AKs IP against a full stack is too good fold right here as I agree that at least KK and QQ are in his range here along with the always feared AA.

Chargers In 07 · #6 10-25-2007, 05:07 PM

Let's say his range is QQ+/AK. You'll miss 2/3 times and the times you do hit you won't get paid off and the other times you'll chop/lose your stack.

AlexB182 · #7 10-25-2007, 05:21 PM

You can't put him on QQ+/AK only, there is at least a chance he's making a resteal here or at least lowers his raising standards in spots like this one. AQs, TT+ looks better to me
Also add hands where you flop something like two flushes and overpairs to his, say, pair of Qs and the situation does not look that bad anymore...
Plus: in case you hit a K or a Q, chances are very good he will at least put in a CB with something like QQ or JJ or AQ, which also makes up for some losses.