100 NL, value bet 3 streets with AA, or check/call?

[SABR42]

My first orbit at the table, no reads unfortunately:

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $52.50
BB: $26.35
UTG: $106.85
UTG+1: $17.15
Hero (MP1): $109.65
MP2: $201.20
CO: $314.10
BTN: $26.30

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (8 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $4.00</font>, MP2 calls $4.00, 4 folds

Flop: ($9.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $7.50</font>, MP2 calls $7.50

Turn: ($24.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $17.00</font>, MP2 calls $17.00

River: ($58.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks or bets?

[BT2]

i would bet $25 and fold to a raise.

[CazicT]

I would say he most likely has a busted draw or a queen like KQ or QJ. There is also a small but definite possibility you are crushed by either a boat or trip tens.

I think I like the idea of betting maybe 1/3 pot and if he raises, probably dumping. Very doubtful he would raise with anything you beat so this play seems fairly safe to me and gets money from a queen which might check behind if you check.

This of course could change if you know your opponent to be a bluffer, then checking might be better to get money from a busted draw, but I think against an unknown I wouldn't count on him being more apt to bluff than to call with a worse hand...

[TheFoxNL]

he's gotta put AQ in youre range but yet he calls 2 times
i figure straight draws give up on turn so rule out KJ J9 expect when they are spades
other then that i would think QQ TT might reraise either turn or river KK would reraise also on river IMO so i think a check call wouldnt be terrible either

[deflY]

There is probably no worse hand that will call a bet on the river. But if he really has a T or something better and raisese you, you are forced to lay this down, but any busted draw will fold.
So I'd c/c this, hoping that he might bluff with a busted draw or get a cheap showdown.

[CazicT]

[ QUOTE ]
he's gotta put AQ in youre range but yet he calls 2 times
i figure straight draws give up on turn so rule out KJ J9 expect when they are spades
other then that i would think QQ TT might reraise either turn or river KK would reraise also on river IMO so i think a check call wouldnt be terrible either

[/ QUOTE ]

There also exist people who might bet a pair of queens for value if checked to which makes the check call a bit more attractive (because you will get paid both by bluffs and med. strength hands).

The real answer is dependant upon your read of the villian and what his bluffing frequency is when he has a busted draw and if he is likely to check behind with his med. strength hands or not. Since there is no read you have to think about a generic person who plays at the level you're playing.

I think most would be smart enough to check behind with a queen, but I wouldn't necassarily bank on him bluffing at this on the end (either because he doesn't bluff or because he believes you are checking to try to induce him to bluff). Although if you know he is a bluffer, this isn't a bad card for him to try to bluff.

It's tough because I think he is more likely to have a busted draw, but I just don't know if he will bluff with it whereas I am a bit more sure that someone with a queen will call a small bet, but these are less likely holdings IMO.

[LifeTilt]

Only because I have been considerably more aggressive lately and falling victim to opponents in position with monsters calling me down and value raising my riverbet, I would c/c. The stats I have on you OP are very similar to my own in terms of aggression, so I suspect villian here may be happy to call flop and turn and make you fire another 3/4 pot bet on the river, in order to value raise that river.

If you check, and he tries to bluff his missed fd, you got him. If he does have the set or 10-x, well, that sucks. I also feel like a check call here is good for your table image. I mean, you raise, bet, bet, c/c. That looks credible. Next time you 3 barrel with air, I bet villian and other think you're holding fire...

[SABR42]

Thanks for the responses.

Results: I decided to C/C because of all the missed draws. He checked behind with AQ. Bleh.