#1
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Theory question. Maybe boring.
Do you think it makes sense to bet this missed flop in order to create proper odds to see the river card after a missed turn? I wasn't specifically going for a "free card" on the turn although happily it worked out that way. I was thinking if the turn missed I would need odds to draw and see the river.
PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks. Flop: (5 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font> SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls. Turn: (4.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks. River: (4.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font> SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks. Final Pot: 4.50 BB |
#2
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Re: Theory question. Maybe boring.
Bona,
1. Betting now to improve your odds later is ALWAYS a mistake if betting now is -EV. 2. Your bet here is not -EV, nor is it a mistake. You made money on your bet because of your equity edge. |
#3
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Re: Theory question. Maybe boring.
Theoretically, a -EV bet doesn't become +EV by changing your odds to draw later in the hand. You still lose money on the bet. Were this such a situation, checking would be preferable. Fortunately, it's not. You have a clear +EV bet here with the flush draw.
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#4
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Re: Theory question. Maybe boring.
Let's start with:
raise preflop -- I think we have a good hand here vs any number of opponents Also, this is not a good example, because you can call a bet on the turn because you have overcard outs too. A better example, would probably be HU where we know we must improve to a flush, and implied odds do not exist. Having said that, the argument that betting to give yourself odds on a later street is flawed. If you put money in a pot on a given street it's either a value-bet, or a bluff/semi-bluff. Assuming you were not going to call the turn if the pot size did not increase, then putting in a bet on the flop lowers your turn expectation. The idea is: you have no stake in the pot when it was small, so you really do not care to be putting bets in it. When the pot is bigger, you have a small stake in it. Each street is viewed in a vacuum, because it does not matter where those bets came from. Not sure if this makes sense? Buzz |
#5
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Re: Theory question. Maybe boring.
Thanks- my take away is that thinking about setting up river odds is not productive so I should have been focused on the present bet. But then but I have some difficulty understanding how we define "equity edge".
Pot equity because there is a small amount of dead money in it? Implied equity because I have overcards and the flush draw? Fold equity with 4 to act of which 3 had checked ahead? Is it some combination of those or am I missing the point? Should I be able to calculate it or is it intuitive with experience? |
#6
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Re: Theory question. Maybe boring.
The equity edge here is that you are 35% to make your flush by the river, which will likely be the best hand, and you are putting in 25% of the money.
Fold equity has to do with the chance that all of your opponents will fold so that you pick up a pot of size X. If there is a 1 in X chance they will all fold, then the bluff is good. This is not the case with 4 villains in your hand. |
#7
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Re: Theory question. Maybe boring.
He's better than 35%, though. His Qs and Js are worth something, too.
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#8
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Re: Theory question. Maybe boring.
[ QUOTE ]
this is not a good example, because you can call a bet on the turn because you have overcard outs too. [/ QUOTE ] Yes. I missed that in play so I made 2 mistakes on the same play [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] You and others are saying the bet was +EV though in light of the drawing potential and the number of opponents (implied equity?) Am I getting that right? |
#9
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Re: Theory question. Maybe boring.
Let's take the pot out of the question for now. Just answer this. Let's say it's just you and 3 guys. If you win, you win 3 bets. If you lose, you lose 1 bet. You expect to win 35ish% of the time. Is this a good wager for you?
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#10
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Re: Theory question. Maybe boring.
OK I think I get this. Now to hang onto it.
But your anser makes me think I have had a misconception about pot equity. I have always thought if for example: only one of three villains folded that in itself improves my pot equity (from 25% to 33 1/3%) but I am hearing that all villains must fold for that to happen? |
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