6x$119 overpair - non-scary board

[suzzer99]

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t50 (3 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

Hero (t1455)
SB (t1080)
BB (t6465)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">Hero raises to t150</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, BB calls t100

Flop: (t325) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
<font color="red">BB bets t300</font>, Hero?

Villian is unknown. Stats were something like 35/20 IIRC. Call, minraise or shove? Please discuss the merits of your choice vs. the others.

[darinvg]

All three seem like viable options but I like the min raise best. His PSB says he likes his hand but there are some turn cards that might slow him down.

[Luisgallo]

I would just push.
If he has a Q he is likely to call you anyway, min raising a thinking player might scare him off.
Among the 3 calling is the worst.

[FishyMcFish]

Minraise commits you to the pot so you must like your hand to make this play - he'll know this. I think this option is most likely to shut him down so not good.

Calling stinks as it's too suspicious on that board. It's doubtful you've raised with JT three handed so he may put you on a set. Calling would be good to induce another bet on the turn but you're risking an A falling or him freezing up.

I'd push as he could put you on a bluff or if he did get some part of the flop you're favourite anyway.

[MikeMcQ1]

I would just shove, he'll call always with a Q, shoving isn't really all that much more (than a minraise) given your stack size. If he has some sort of stupid draw, minraising gives him correct odds to peel.

[suzzer99]

Here's the argument for calling as I see it.

a) I'm really not scared of much. To me this hand might as well be a set. If he has AQ, he's never folding anyway. So it's not like I care about getting the money in before an ace comes. Possibly I'm protecting against A9, but I don't think I care that much about that.

b) One more lead by him pretty much commits him to whatever he has. It seems like his flop bet is either air, a crappy Q, a 9 or a mid PP. Maybe he calls my shove with a crappy Q, maybe he doesn't. Why would I want to scare the others off?

b) Doubling up here is huge in a 6-man. If we both play the bubble right it's practically a guarantee of 2nd and a decent shot at first. So maybe it's worth a little extra risk. Although I'm not even sure it's risking that much to let him see a free turn card.

Thoughts?

[sean457j]

I suppose you would want to do your best to represent AK or JJ. I really hate saying it, but it depends. The bet on the flop may be intentionally asking the question as to whether you hold either of these combinations.

I would say calling may look like 'I don't where I'm at with this hand, hopefully something good will happen' where as a push may look like a desperate attempt to win the pot. I think the min raise is the worse option, because it looks the most suspicious.

[Little John]

i'm pushing because he seems to like his hand and the turn could scare him. plus i doubt you can extract any more chips from a non-queen hand. so just get 'em in and he may even pay to try and hit his 2-5 outer.

[cakewalk]

i would shove to be sure that we can shove his donklead when we have AK here

[JSH06]

I think it's pretty close. As for the turn slowing him down, there's really not that many scare cards that can come on the turn and slow him down. There's only 2 kinds left in the deck. There's 4 aces. A 9 MIGHT slow him down.

As far as him having AQ, most players in his spot would re-shove AQ preflop, so I'm not really putting much stock in that being in his range.

You're right that if he leads the turn he'll pretty much be committed. You're also right that your hand isn't vulnerable. This is the upside to calling.

However, simply taking this pot down now gives you almost twice as many chips as shorty. You're also less likely to get screwed and bubble if you shove now. Sometimes taking the safe route and not getting tricky is better on the bubble.

That said, I think it's so close that it doesn't even matter. Shoving and calling are both fine. I don't particularly like one or the other better.

Ok, actually I think I like calling better the more I think about it. Even if an ace comes I think it's less likely that it hit his hand. People normally re-raises a lot of Ax hands with his stack. There's the chance that if an ace comes on the turn he'll bluff you off the best hand, but he could just as easily be scared by an ace. An ace is only going to come on the turn about 6-8% of the time anyway, so it's not really that big of a worry.

Ok I just rambled about nothing but I guess I like calling better but wouldn't fault anyone for shoving.