On the bubble of a $11 45man on FTP (6min levels)

[Crow1974]

Both players have been tight trying to get ITM.

+EV or -EV play? I think it's +EV because their calling ranges are so small. It took him forever to call with 8s, I have not been shoving a lot up to this point.


Full Tilt Poker, $10 + $1 NL Hold'em Sit n' Go, 400/800 Blinds, 7 Players
http://www.legopoker.com/hh

Hero (BTN): 6,530
SB: 6,750
BB: 6,425
UTG: 14,874
UTG+1: 10,566
MP: 8,195
CO: 14,160

Pre-Flop: (1,200) Th 5c dealt to Hero (BTN)
4 folds, Hero raises to 6,530 and is All-In, SB folds, BB calls 5,625 and is All-In

Flop: (13,250) Qd Jh Jd (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Turn: (13,250) 5d (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

River: (13,250) 7h (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: 13,250 Pot
Hero showed Th 5c (two pair, Jacks and Fives) and LOST (-6,425 NET)
BB showed 8c 8d (two pair, Jacks and Eights) and WON 13,250 (+6,825 NET)

EDIT: I should add I just folded to the BB giving him a walk (I had 4 high and should've pushed but he was a bit smarter than BB in determining calling ranges, but a bad fold never the less probably)

[sapsuckah]

I think this is fine, especially given your read.

If this were on the bubble of a 1-table tourney, I'd probably pass on a situation like this since the difference between 4th and 3rd place is 20% of the prize pool. Hence more conservative play on the bubble unless you're the big stack.

But just getting ITM isn't as valuable in a 5-table tourney and I'd be looking to take risks on the bubble vs tight players to try to chip up.

[cheburashka]

Not wanting to be a nit, and I don't really disagree with you or sapsuckah, but if I'm not mistaken, you're already in the money with 7 left--is it not possible that the blinds have loosened up as a result?

[sapsuckah]

I don't play on FT so I don't know if their payout structure only has six ITM. I just went with OP's statement that they were on the bubble.

[Crow1974]

No it pays 6 places on FullTilt.

[Dunkman]

Yeah given the bubble, stack sizes, read, etc., I think this is a super easy shove. I'd probably shove this regardless of reads to be honest.