A6s - turned top two

noellftw · #1 10-05-2007, 06:48 PM

Villain's stats over 700 hands:
20/7/2
WTSD 31%

folds to cbet 25%
raises cbet 25%

Villain has played very cautiously and doesn't like folding aces.

Cryptologic Network No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG ($48.60)
MP ($37.05)
Hero ($50.35)
SB ($28.44)
BB ($46.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.5, 1 fold, BB calls $2, UTG calls $2.

Flop: ($7.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $5, BB folds, UTG calls $5.

Turn: ($16.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $11, UTG raises to $25, Hero?

Dallas Dru · #2 10-05-2007, 06:56 PM

i think that you can narrow his range to about 45,56, or maybe 78. then i would say this is a fold most of the time if he limping under the gun.. he most likely has suited connectors.

jack492505 · #3 10-05-2007, 07:02 PM

if you put him on 45, 56 or maybe 78 how is this a fold? You're murdering the two pair hands, and against 45,56,78 you aren't in bad shape. You have 44% equity. Weird spot I guess I'm getting it in here.

Dallas Dru · #4 10-05-2007, 07:05 PM

yeah yea... sorry jack is right...i was trying to say this is NOT a fold most of the time... sorry noel..

Lostit · #5 10-05-2007, 07:14 PM

Thats a fold to me for a few reasons:

1.) You said he plays very cautiously, and he doesn't like to fold Aces. This isn't a folding aces situation, this is an overly aggressive, for him, situation. I think he's got better than AK,AQ, AJ, etc, because he would simply be calling you down here instead of re-raising you.

2.) He limp/called preflop OOP to the PFR (you). This usually says small pocket pair or suited connector (although suited connector UTG is not good poker, but its a possibility here). Those two possibilities put you right in that range for a monster here.

3.) His line is a classic donk, "I'm sly and I'm extracting as much value as a person with my limited skills can manage" line. The check/call on the flop followed by the check/re-raise on the turn is exactly how most of these people like to play their monsters. Anytime I see this line, I proceed VERY cautiously. Its basically the overused stack-a-donk line.

4.) If he wasn't sandbagging on the flop and the turn actually did make his hand, then its a made straight and I'm done.

5.) Look at the odds. There is $66 in the pot, and he had $14 behind. You have to assume the rest would go in, if needed on the river, its difficult to believe it wouldn't. Figure actual + Implied gives you $14 to win an additional $80 by seeing an additional card. That means you need to be win 17.5% of the time to win here. Figure that an additional A or 6 would be 4 more outs, or 8% (rules of 2 & 4). I need to make the additional 10% here to be break even, and I don't think you win enough, unimproved, to justify that 10%. But thats just my opinion.

Fold

Antinome · #6 10-05-2007, 07:26 PM

top two and you're contemplating folding when turn completes a gutshot straight? NFW. If he has us beat, he has 44 or 55. If we have him beat he has AT-AK or a flushdraw with KQ or KJ. put him in. You're supposed to go broke with top two against his set.

Lostit · #7 10-05-2007, 07:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
top two and you're contemplating folding when turn completes a gutshot straight? NFW. If he has us beat, he has 44 or 55. If we have him beat he has AT-AK or a flushdraw with KQ or KJ. put him in. You're supposed to go broke with top two against his set.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point about the gut shot, but I can't get past the player description and anything other than a monster doesn't seem to fit that type of player.

Antinome · #8 10-05-2007, 08:14 PM

So he's sitting there UTG. he gets a hand he doesn't want to fold. Not top 7% so probably not AK,AQ, but too pretty to fold. say ATs,AJ. So he limp calls. he's not folding his ace on the flop, "[he] doesn't like folding aces." Could be a cbet. Gets to the turn and says, "well, got to raise to find out where I'm at". When you put him all in he discovers that he's behind, but committed.

So he's sitting there UTG. he gets a hand he doesn't want to fold. Not top 7% so probably not AK,AQ, but too pretty to fold. say KTs,KJs,KQs. He hits the flop so he calls. Wait... I missed. Time to semibluff....

So he's sitting there UTG. gets 44,55. Standard limp-call. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] bam! flops lightning, executes the stackadonk, lol! he pushes with like 9% equity, I rule!

Add all of these reasonable stories added together, and you gotta stick it in.

Antinome · #9 10-05-2007, 08:25 PM

Board: Ac 4h 5c 6d

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.636% 71.64% 00.00% 788 0.00 { Ah6h }
Hand 1: 28.364% 28.36% 00.00% 312 0.00 { 55-44, AJs-ATs, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, AJo-ATo }

ignore the flush draws...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.248% 70.25% 00.00% 680 0.00 { Ah6h }
Hand 1: 29.752% 29.75% 00.00% 288 0.00 { 55-44, AJs-ATs, AJo-ATo }

bias it heavily toward sets....

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.143% 57.14% 00.00% 352 0.00 { Ah6h }
Hand 1: 42.857% 42.86% 00.00% 264 0.00 { 55-44, AJs, AJo }

members_only · #10 10-05-2007, 09:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So he's sitting there UTG. he gets a hand he doesn't want to fold. Not top 7% so probably not AK,AQ, but too pretty to fold. say ATs,AJ. So he limp calls. he's not folding his ace on the flop, "[he] doesn't like folding aces." Could be a cbet. Gets to the turn and says, "well, got to raise to find out where I'm at". When you put him all in he discovers that he's behind, but committed.

So he's sitting there UTG. he gets a hand he doesn't want to fold. Not top 7% so probably not AK,AQ, but too pretty to fold. say KTs,KJs,KQs. He hits the flop so he calls. Wait... I missed. Time to semibluff....

So he's sitting there UTG. gets 44,55. Standard limp-call. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] bam! flops lightning, executes the stackadonk, lol! he pushes with like 9% equity, I rule!

Add all of these reasonable stories added together, and you gotta stick it in.

[/ QUOTE ]

The last of those stories is somewhat more reasonable than the first two...