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  #1  
Old 11-11-2007, 04:22 PM
tmcdmck tmcdmck is offline
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Default $10nltrn thoughts on every street please!

well after tilting off all but $50 of my $2000 bankroll (which hurt all the more as my student loan hasn't come through and i am living off it at the moment), i decided i would rebuild rather than redeposit (due to poverty and to teach me a lesson for stupid tilt/ stoned play) so I am playing microstakes. anyway, on to the hand:

blinds are 15/30, my stack is 1330, his is 1070. I am the button.

Villain is not too bad, but way too passive. this is the first time he has reraised me preflop, and he usually open limps the button. I did not 4bet as I did not actually feel i was ahead of his range by much, if at all (first mistake?). I have seen him check the flop after raising pre both with and without a hand. He seems to have been very aggressive in pots where i check the flop and bet the turn, but i think he might have had a hand each ime, so that read is not worth too much.

hero is dealt JhJs, raises to t80
villain raises to t130
hero calls
flop comes Ts6sKs
villain checks, hero checks
turn comes Kh
hero bets t130, villain calls
river comes Qd, villain bets t271
hero folds

obviously by the river I am beat by anything but a bluff, but what would people suggest flop and turn?
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  #2  
Old 11-11-2007, 06:41 PM
Somekid Somekid is offline
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Default Re: $10nltrn thoughts on every street please!

As played pre-flop, I would play it the same post-flop.

But, I think you should 4-bet (maybe even shove) preflop. JJ is a really strong hand, even against someone very tight. He could have 99, TT or even be frustrated and lashing out with AJs. Also I find that it sometimes seem like an opponent is very passive/tight but in reality they were just completely card-dead.
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  #3  
Old 11-11-2007, 07:13 PM
tmcdmck tmcdmck is offline
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Default Re: $10nltrn thoughts on every street please!

Assuming his calling range pre is AJo+ 99+ I have 52.24% equity, which makes me very barely favourite, and I am not at all certain AJ would be in their calling range,or that 99 would be in their reraising range, so shoving pre would be pushing a tiny to nonexistent edge, which seems especially foolish considering rake plus my skill edge (well i think i have a big one at least :P). this rules out a shove imo. it also makes me wonder what the point of a smaller 4bet would be.

i agree that maybe my range is warped by the guy being card dead, but my range is not just based on reraise frequency, but also his general play-style (ie his open limps).
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Old 11-11-2007, 07:26 PM
Somekid Somekid is offline
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Default Re: $10nltrn thoughts on every street please!

Hmm, well I'm not sure you can be certain that his calling range is that tight. Also, if he's folding 10% of the time to your shove, you get a lot of chips from the times he folds. What I'm saying is, even if when you get called your equity is only 52% (and I think it's probably higher), the times he folds makes shoving here worth it.

Also, I don't think your skill edge is a reason not to shove here. This has been discussed a lot, but making +EV plays, even if they're marginal, is best. It might lower your overall win rate, but it will improve your hourly.

Anyways, those are just my thoughts about the preflop decision, and hopefully somebody else can offer their opinion (or set me straight).
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  #5  
Old 11-11-2007, 07:44 PM
tmcdmck tmcdmck is offline
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Default Re: $10nltrn thoughts on every street please!

well tbh i would be shocked if his calling range was much looser, and i suspect his reraising range is literally the same as his calling range.

my equity is definitely 52% against AJo+ 99+, I poker stoved it, and it sounds intuitively right to me anyway.

maybe his range is wider, but do you really find that to be the case vs passive preflop villains?

one more thing: how can pushing a 52% edge be +ev when you need to win 52.5% of your games to break even?

yes pushing small edges is widely considered to be optimal, but by edge i think "edge of greater than 52.5%" is actually what is meant.
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  #6  
Old 11-11-2007, 08:18 PM
canvasbck canvasbck is offline
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Default Re: $10nltrn thoughts on every street please!

It's pretty tough to find someone at the $10's that is THAT tight. But, whatever, I wasn't there and that is your read so go with it. You are still close to your 52.5% if he calls 100% of the time. The times that you induce a fold make it a +EV play. I still wouldn't beat myself up over it, calling is not too bad either.
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  #7  
Old 11-11-2007, 08:51 PM
tmcdmck tmcdmck is offline
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Default Re: $10nltrn thoughts on every street please!

hes not tight, just passive . . . and the calling range i gave is a standard-to-loose one.
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  #8  
Old 11-11-2007, 09:21 PM
Kalledrengen Kalledrengen is offline
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Default Re: $10nltrn thoughts on every street please!

First of all I would definitely 4-bet this really big. Your hand is huge heads up, but at the same time not a hand we are always thrilled to see a flop with if we face resistence because any A, K, Q is gonna kill the action a lot. Because his 3-bet is so small I think I rather raise this to like 4-600? preflop instead of shoving because he has not invsted much yet so will be easier for him to let any hand we dominate go. Would actually love some comments about this as I'm not sure that is correct, but that is how I probably would do.

As played I would probably try and take a stab on the flop and if he calls the flop bet then just give up the hand.
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  #9  
Old 11-11-2007, 09:25 PM
canvasbck canvasbck is offline
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Default Re: $10nltrn thoughts on every street please!

Like I said, I wasn't there and that is the range you assigned him based on your reads. Go with that read. The main point that I was making is that shoving is still a +$EV move with the FE you are utilizing. Calling is NOT a bad move here.

Even a passive player (like I tend to be in early rounds) will repop lighter if he feels you are pushing him around, or just to see how you will respond to the RR.
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  #10  
Old 11-11-2007, 10:27 PM
tmcdmck tmcdmck is offline
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Default Re: $10nltrn thoughts on every street please!

okay. maybe i am being to tight on villains rr range, in which case i would agree that a shove is reasonable (though i am not so sure it is optimal. somekids point of "making +ev plays however thin is best" misses that calling and playing postflop is +ev, as is 4bet not shoving, as is pretty much whatever i do. i am wondering what the ideal play is). what do people think is optimal if my hypothetical hand range is accurate? (which it may or may not be). do people think a shove is the BEST move if my range is too tight?
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