Supernova tourney. Call all in push from button w/ A8h?

[ryanghall]

Villain is 13/12 or something over 100+ hands.
Let's assume he's decent. I have been 8 tabling so I don't really know for sure but I don't recall him doing anything stupid. His att to steal % is 25% over a small sample. Notice BB only has 6x BB. Make the big call?

Edited to add: We're about 50 people from the money bubble.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t400 with t25 antes (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t10695)
UTG+1 (t4130)
MP1 (t5267)
MP2 (t5300)
MP3 (t1949)
CO (t5125)
Button (t6429)
Hero (t4895)
BB (t2470)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP3 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="red">Button raises to t6404 (All-in)</font>, Hero ?

[Tackleberry]

If we assume that BU pushes with the following range:

KK-66,A8s+,KJs+,QJs,T9s,98s,87s,A9o+,KJo+

which means 13.6% and is rather tight, you´re getting exactly the right odds to call (you´re a 40:60-dog). If Button raises more lightly, you´re even better.

[BrandiFan]

I think that range is too loose and this is a fold.

[levAA]

I'd fold this too - A-trash is a terrible hand to call a push with imo.

[ryanghall]

I think some of the hands in the range won't be pushed by some players but some are left out. I'd push 22-55 there for sure but I might do something different with 87s. Ultimately, though, we're just guessing and the range can't be that far off. I doubt most people are pushing KK there, too.

Ryan

[ryanghall]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold this too - A-trash is a terrible hand to call a push with imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is your only reasoning, that's stupendously awful reasoning.

Ryan

[levAA]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold this too - A-trash is a terrible hand to call a push with imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is your only reasoning, that's stupendously awful reasoning.

Ryan

[/ QUOTE ]

Ryan,

I want to call in the blinds when I have enough of an edge.
What do you expect to be up against when you call with A8?
Best you can hope for is a smaller ace - and I might call if I have a good read that villain has a wide opening range from button, but with 12% preflop raises (applying the gap-concept) I don't think you will see this small aces often enough to give you enough of an edge here.

btw you can anytime ask me for a more detailed explanation of my answers - that would be a somehow educated manner.

Lev

[ryanghall]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd fold this too - A-trash is a terrible hand to call a push with imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this is your only reasoning, that's stupendously awful reasoning.

Ryan

[/ QUOTE ]

Ryan,

I want to call in the blinds when I have enough of an edge.
What do you expect to be up against when you call with A8?
Best you can hope for is a smaller ace - and I might call if I have a good read that villain has a wide opening range from button, but with 12% preflop raises (applying the gap-concept) I don't think you will see this small aces often enough to give you enough of an edge here.

btw you can anytime ask me for a more detailed explanation of my answers - that would be a somehow educated manner.

Lev

[/ QUOTE ]

You're missing a few really basic points. First, and most importantly, if his PFR is 12%, it's clearly going to be much higher on the button. Secondly, there's all kinds of hands he could have that I'm ahead of, not just "small aces". Since the bubble is coming, pushing any 2 against some players is even going to be +EV. I'm not saying he's pushing any 2 but I have a feeling his range could be a lot wider than you're giving him credit for.

Ryan

[levAA]

So was your post intended to be a question or as some kind of a teaching-post for us.

I mean it's obvious that you think calling this hand is the right move, and as you were sitting on that table and had much more of a feeling for the action you might be right.

What exactly do you want to know?

Edit:

I think the main question is what range do we give villain here. With 12% PFR he looks tight. It's bubble time and he is on the button, so I would guess:

any PP, A8+, KT+, QT+, JT

So against this range you have 45% equity, which makes a call borderline for me. It is bubble time and I think you can pass this minimum edges, cause you will be able to get more value in stealing yourself than calling a push (specially from a tight player)

[hamnegger]

i call. ace 8 is my exact cutoff bc im beating half the aces.being suited adds a small % (anyone know exact?) to my hand as well.