Tourney situation. Omaha version of classic Holdem AA question

[chucky]

I understand the general opinion. I just wanted to see, given the endless juicy situations in this tourney, if folding away one opportunity was correct. I hope everyone reads phanekim's post. villian shoved ak76 rainbow.

[JavaNut]

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The villian is a major insane donk. He has blown chips on top pair and other horrible hands several times while i have been sitting here. His raises are meaningless. Big stacks in this tourney do garbage raises all the time preflop, and in last 10 hands he blew 20k plus in chips.

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Given this read on your opponent and the fact that you only need to get to #18 to move up in prizes, you are risking $33 to win $60+ and being in good position to win even more with somedthing that looks at least 75/25 in your favor (not the hand which is good but not a monster, but the hand combined with the fact your opponent seems to be tilting heavily). Push.

Against a player who has been playing solidly and sound over the last hands, you have not got first in vigor, which is important in tourneys, if you raise back at him you risk more than you win by folding him, then you'll need to be 75/25 (or 70/30 or thereabouts) to win against a good solid range of hands, which you are not quite with AAds.

Against a short stack, that will not prevent you from folding into the money if you lose this hand, again push as you are not risking the $33.

[Phanekim]

actually against random hands it was like 68.5% and against this certain hand it was 71.5%

[chucky]

Actually pay out is at 24. 25 players left. I have aads. How is this hand not a monster. The only better hands are AA two pair ds and aaqt/aaqj ds.

[JavaNut]

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Actually pay out is at 24. 25 players left. I have aads. How is this hand not a monster. The only better hands are AA two pair ds and aaqt/aaqj ds.

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Very few hands are really monsters in Omaha in the same way that they might be in Hold'em. There are 5 cards to come.

Against a random hand it is 61%, against the specific hand it was 75% (might be wrong, as I didn't double check before typing) against a decent hand range from a decent player it is less than 61%, that is why in that situation it is not a monster. What makes Hold'em hands monsters is the capability to dominate, which is not really that important in Omaha. In a cash game you'll have sufficient edge to push with this hand, but in tourneys don't always go for the smaller edges, that is my point.

[chucky]

Against random it is 68%. It was 71% versus specific hand. I agree with your point. The other posters have repeatedly driven home the point that this is very high equity hand, and victory in hand makes deep stack play(By Tourney Standards) a possibility against donks, who spew chips.
My feeling is I would fold this hand 8 times out of 10 in tourney scenario where I am at bubble. To make this worse, I actually revealed my hand to villian b4 my raise and he still pushed. I was amazed that only one poster other than Phanekim, ever said that initial fold is correct play.

EV break down in my head in real cash terms are:
Allin has total Ev of 40 bucks profit assuming average finish of 2nd to last table if i win pot and nothing if I lose. This was based on 66% equity because I gave villian slightly better hand than reality dictated.
Folding is probably profit of 35 bucks. 90% chance I money if I fold, most of that time tables 3 and 4.

The better overall opponents in field are, the better this push is in my opinion.

[RoundTower]

do you want advice or what?

[kicks]

he just wants sympathy

[chucky]

I wanted advice, I was just testing out arguments either way. There was frustration on my part, but I thank you all for not getting angry at me. It was also a case of trying to find out if ppl will think that sacrificing a quality hand is ever really justified, short of 4-way allin preflop scenarios. The consensus is as long as failure to money isnt going to break one's bankroll, you cant fold a quality hand. Again, I apologize to all the posters who wasted their time on me. The combination of seeing the situation less than 2 minutes before the hand, and my own premonition of the 4 hitting once I saw the flop, drove this discussion from my end. The crazy nature of this tournament, which runs at 9:30 pm pst every night on poker stars, proves just how many bad nlhe players play in omaha events without any reason behind their plays. Hope a few omaha regulars take advantage of the meat.

[Troll_Inc]

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I am chuck's friend. You have to give credit to chuck because he played this 5.50 6 - handed on stars w/o rebuying or adding on. Prize pool is 3,395 dollars with 933 going to first.

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I'm not sure which one of you is a bigger chucklehead.

you - why give credit to someone playing a rebuy tournament incorrectly?

chucky - for playing a hand incorrectly into a tourney, so you can "fold" into the money.