I am good at poker (low content)

[Phil153]

[ QUOTE ]
Whoooops!

Now you are a moron with this equally probable set of holdings.

Two Dimes

[/ QUOTE ]
Hah? In your example I have 20.6% equity in a FOUR WAY POT given a very bad scenario (my flush dead, two live overpairs that can hit sets, a heap of straight outs dead, a heap of two pairs outs dead due to the KKQ making a straight.)

Given that my best scenario is over 40% equity in a FOUR WAY POT, my average scenario is positive and my likely bad scenarios have a few percent in negative expectation, you just helped me prove that this push is +EV.

[EffenDolts]

Almost any POS hand that has live cards is a favorite when almost all of villain's outs are dead. Look at this beauty: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Would you know that your were still a big favorite with that trash?

Result

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1892213
pokenum -o8 9d 5s qc 4h - as ad 3d 2d - 7d 5d 3h 2h - ac 8c 3c ah
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 376992 enumerated boards
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
5s Qc 9d 4h 96234 135815 238143 3034 5145 49123 0 0.313
As Ad 3d 2d 15720 17111 275468 84413 87275 1818 50511 0.290
7d 5d 3h 2h 33991 92951 279861 4180 1454 138234 0 0.174
Ac 8c 3c Ah 22601 43668 250057 83267 685 85862 50511 0.224

Hypothesis: If three opponents love their hands, any hand that does not contain a Ace, deuce, or trey will have decent equity. Maybe I can run some Monte Carlo sims to test the EV of random middle-card hands against three random good hands (good raising hands by Hutchinson point count, or similar).

Effen

[LeeLoo]

This is some funny [censored]. From both sides.

[Kuso]

[ QUOTE ]
This is some funny [censored]. From both sides.

[/ QUOTE ]

what are you drinking tonight?

[thehun69]

[ QUOTE ]
Almost any POS hand that has live cards is a favorite when almost all of villain's outs are dead. Look at this beauty: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Would you know that your were still a big favorite with that trash?

[/ QUOTE ]


How can anyone not love this game???

The Hun

[jai]

I thinks Effen is right on in his analysis. Phil, you were fortunate to have the following parlay take place: your flush draw was live, your opponents ate up each others outs, there were two AA out, and no one else went in with high card hands.

If you had a read that everyone else was playing exactly the cards they did, then you are of course in a big EV+ situation.

Consider this situation: your raise gets one hand (let's say someone with Ac 8c 3c 2h) to fold, but the other two hands go in with you. If those two hands are AA2x and high cards (let's say your flush is still live), it looks really bad for you:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1894207
pokenum -o8 6h jc ts 9s - as 3d ad 2d - th jh qs kc / ac 8c 3c 2h
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 376992 enumerated boards
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ts 9s Jc 6h 32367 97451 258065 21476 0 0 0 0.194
As Ad 3d 2d 156307 156307 220685 0 222195 0 0 0.571
Qs Kc Jh Th 59657 101758 253758 21476 0 0 0 0.236

How likely is this scenario, or any of the myriad other scenarios which people have proposed, versus the likelihood of the scenario that actually took place? I'm not sure, but I suspect you got very lucky.

[phosix]

Hey f u ck the stats
now you know you are against some pockets that wont go to trips.
how about if all the js and 9s were gone to folded hands???? you know that one pair is dead. wow preflop you had no idead what they had besides that. sure if you knew to a 100% what 4 cards all your oponnets were holding but you didnt. so i still say thats one of the lamest suck on a donkeys cox plays ive ever seen

[J. Henry Christ]

nh, sir

[bb88]

All the people thinking this is bad are probably not looking at what Phil is saying. I could very possibly be wrong, but I don't think he is advocating this play in anything but the most rare conditions when he has solid reads on his opponents and all that good stuff. It's pretty good thinking that goes beyond what most players think about.

[niss]

[ QUOTE ]
solid reads on his opponents and all that good stuff

[/ QUOTE ]

Phil? Bwaaaahahahahahahahahahahaha.