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  #21  
Old 11-02-2007, 07:26 PM
SavvyMike SavvyMike is offline
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Posts: 33
Default Re: pca step 2 question

[ QUOTE ]
You are acting like you have enough of a chip lead to coast into the top 2 spots. This is not the case. It's not like this is a satellite situation where there are 11 people left and the top 10 place. There are 3 people and top 2 place and your chip lead is anything but commanding. Are you just going to fold unless you get AA/KK/QQ (not even sure if you'd play these hands) and hope the other guy busts the shortstack? You are going to find yourself getting blinded into being the shortstack a good % of the time. If you are finding yourself bubbling a lot of tourneys, this might have something to do with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

First, I'm not planning on using my chip position to creep into the top two spots. I'm planning on using my chip position to pick up uncontested pots and to push around the other players. I'm comfortable folding a strong hand pre-flop in this spot because I think I have more to gain by waiting for a better spot, it's not like the button limped, he opened with a huge overbet (despite the description above, I believe the button opened for T1500.) The blinds are still pretty low, jme's M before the hand started was just below 18, losing this pot brings his M down to 6 and puts him in a spot where he will now have to get lucky to win as the short stack. Considering that the play is now shorthanded, jme's situation is a little more dire, but I still don't think he's in such bad shape that he has not choice but to shove here. Even if the guy did only open for 3x the BB, I still don't know if I want to risk crippling myself to knock this player out in a spot where I'm most likely coin flipping, though not so likely to be dominated or have him dominating me. I think the way the actual hand played out jme was somewhere in the 70% favorite range. I don't know about you, but I've lost quite a few hands where I was a 70% favorite. Not that I don't take those shots when I need to, but when 2nd gets a prize and 3rd does not, I have to reconsider my strategy.

I just don't understand how a good player who thinks they have an edge over the other remaining players would want to put themselves in a situation where they could get unlucky and blow the whole tournament. I would go all-in if this was a normal tournament and I was playing for first place, but in this situation I am playing for second, which changes everything.

After losing that hand I don't have enough chips to play poker, I just have to find spots to move all my chips in, which is not a position I'm really comfortable being in when there are 3 players left and 2 get paid.

The benefit of knocking out this guy third at the risk of becoming the short stack just does not seem like a wise move to me. I'd rather let those other guys try and knock each other out while I focus on maintaining the lead while waiting for a better spot to try knocking one of the other two players out myself.
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  #22  
Old 11-03-2007, 07:32 AM
HokieGreg HokieGreg is offline
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: zomg i got my taco
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Default Re: pca step 2 question

Including your fold equity you are probably something like 70% against his range. It's not a close decision.

Go ahead and rewrite the book on poker.

/thread
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  #23  
Old 11-04-2007, 02:18 AM
drzen drzen is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Donkeytown
Posts: 2,704
Default Re: pca step 2 question

[ QUOTE ]
LOL at assuming unknown with a player he's played an hour plus with.

[/ QUOTE ]


His reads?

[ QUOTE ]
I gave both sides of the argument with math. I didn't commit to either. His friend isn't stupid. What part of this do you disagree with?

[/ QUOTE ]

The last bit. This is an easy shove.

[ QUOTE ]
And, again, your definition of a freeroll is horrible. Please attempt to justify it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm done with justifying it. You take yourself too seriously.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, nice blog.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. Feel free to rip me apart there too [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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  #24  
Old 11-04-2007, 02:20 AM
drzen drzen is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Donkeytown
Posts: 2,704
Default Re: pca step 2 question

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You are acting like you have enough of a chip lead to coast into the top 2 spots. This is not the case. It's not like this is a satellite situation where there are 11 people left and the top 10 place. There are 3 people and top 2 place and your chip lead is anything but commanding. Are you just going to fold unless you get AA/KK/QQ (not even sure if you'd play these hands) and hope the other guy busts the shortstack? You are going to find yourself getting blinded into being the shortstack a good % of the time. If you are finding yourself bubbling a lot of tourneys, this might have something to do with it.

[/ QUOTE ]

First, I'm not planning on using my chip position to creep into the top two spots. I'm planning on using my chip position to pick up uncontested pots and to push around the other players. I'm comfortable folding a strong hand pre-flop in this spot because I think I have more to gain by waiting for a better spot

[/ QUOTE ]

Good luck with that approach.
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  #25  
Old 11-05-2007, 01:35 PM
HatesLosing HatesLosing is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Posts: 153
Default Re: pca step 2 question

[ QUOTE ]
Including your fold equity you are probably something like 70% against his range. It's not a close decision.

Go ahead and rewrite the book on poker.

/thread

[/ QUOTE ]

Assume your "70% with FE" is correct. Let's see... push and win a pot that gives you a *little* bit better chance at finishing top 2 70% of the time and screws you over badly 30% of the time, or be safe and 100% of the time maintain your position as chip leader where you have OVER a 70% chance of finishing top 2 as it stands... hrmmmm...

Let's also consider that FE isn't as big of a deal here as you might first think because a lot of coinflip hands he will still call you with (you don't want to play a coinflip here either) and you certainly aren't going to make him fold hands that have you beat badly. Again, I also don't think that winning this pot is going to significantly help you finish top 2 enough to justify the risk you take on.

You aren't going to get called very often by the hands that you have beat badly, because he's more likely to just open shove the pairs you have beat badly. This means that when you're called, you're usually in a coinflip or way behind.

Can you have the philosophy of "insta push here 100% of the time" and still be a winning player? Sure. But winning players make bad decisions sometimes, and this is one IMO. Pushing is wrong here.. you need a read on your opponent for pushing to be correct.

Now if you want to argue I'm wrong and want to present a solid and logical argument, fine. But the most troubling thing about your attitude/post is that you act like it's an "obvious push" when there are TONS of very good players with ROI's that are about near the theoretical limit that *do not* push in this spot.
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  #26  
Old 11-06-2007, 05:23 PM
SavvyMike SavvyMike is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 33
Default Re: pca step 2 question

[ QUOTE ]

Good luck with that approach.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, but the whole point is that I don't need much luck to win with this approach. In my opinion, coin-flipping in this spot like you suggest takes a much greater deal of luck to win the tournament than by picking lower-risk spots where I will continue to accumulate chips. I'm sorry, but pushing all-in with the 99's here sounds like a play a weak player would make to get the hand over with as soon as possible, personally I'm in no hurry to end the tournament on this hand. I think most comments are coming from players who think they have more fold equity in this spot than they actually do, when I watched the hand play out I was sure the button was going to call if jme1222 pushed all-in, which he did. If you were absolutely sure that you were going to get your all-in called, would you still push?
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