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#11
09-12-2007, 12:31 AM
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Re: I turned the nuts
[ QUOTE ]
The BABAR THEOREM: BigBadBabar hath ordained that when ye possesseth the best hand, ye shalt betteth and raiseth so that all thy pots might verily be large and crucial. So hath it been written and so shall it henceforth be done. [/ QUOTE ] 
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#13
09-12-2007, 01:24 AM
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Re: I turned the nuts
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The BABAR THEOREM: BigBadBabar hath ordained that when ye possesseth the best hand, ye shalt betteth and raiseth so that all thy pots might verily be large and crucial. So hath it been written and so shall it henceforth be done. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] There are plenty of times when, even when you likely have the best hand, you should forgo the use of your raise button. Holding the nuts in multiway pots is not one of them.
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#14
09-12-2007, 01:28 AM
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Re: I turned the nuts
wookie it's okay to just say you agree
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#15
09-12-2007, 02:30 AM
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Re: I turned the nuts
[ QUOTE ]
1. What is the probability, in your estimation, that a player in the middle will call a single bet? [/ QUOTE ] 85% Maybe a little lean but not too far off. I'm using the two in the middle as a unit here. [ QUOTE ] 2. What is the probability, in your estimation, that a player will call two bets? [/ QUOTE ] 40% I believe that the two caught in the middle will sense being squeezed, which will carry thru the river. So I said 1 will call 80% of the time and one will fold. Again using the two as a unit. [ QUOTE ] 3. How often does button each call, raise, or fold if we 3bet? [/ QUOTE ] 50%, 50% and 0% So: 1. 85% of 2 BB = 1.7 2. 40% of 4 BB = 1.6 3a. 50% of 1 BB = 0.5 3b. 50% of 2 BB = 1.0 If 1 then 3a so 2.2 If 2 then 3b so 2.6 a raise gets you .4 BB Then the river: (Assuming hero still has the nuts and the board doesn't pair giving someone a possible boat) 1 + 3a) Hero bets, BB calls, MP calls, Button raises, Hero 3 balls, one call, one fold, button caps, hero calls, one call. 14 BB 2 + 3b) Hero bets, one call, Button raises, Hero 3 balls, one call, one fold, button caps, hero calls, one call. 12BB Total: 1 + 3a 14 + 2.2 = 16.2 2 + 3b 12 + 2.6 = 14.6 With only one other player in the middle on the turn, I'm busting it open there on the turn. But with two putting in a little more wood keeping their hands warm, I want them around to stoke the fire on the river. edit: I think this is the longest strat post I have ever written. I'm an old man and it's way past bedtime for me. I'll look at this tomorrow and go, "WTF? What drunkass maroon put up all that drivel?" Then I'll feel the strain in my strat muscle and drink some coffee.
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#16
09-12-2007, 03:29 AM
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Re: I turned the nuts
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] The BABAR THEOREM: BigBadBabar hath ordained that when ye possesseth the best hand, ye shalt betteth and raiseth so that all thy pots might verily be large and crucial. So hath it been written and so shall it henceforth be done. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] There are plenty of times when, even when you likely have the best hand, you should forgo the use of your raise button. Holding the nuts in multiway pots is not one of them. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not terribly opposed to slowplaying it here, because the only hand we have any reason to fear at all is a set of deuces. The problem is that, as teh Wook has astutely put it, we're multiway here, so we'd like to charge any hand drawing live the maximum, punish weak draws before the river misses them, and extract from hands that are drawing stone dead in case the river really cripples their hand. It's entirely possible that we face three hands that have a member in each category. Raise.
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#17
09-12-2007, 10:21 AM
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Re: I turned the nuts
[ QUOTE ]
wookie it's okay to just say you agree [/ QUOTE ] If I was just talking with you, I'd simply say that your statement was true, since we're both good enough poker players to know that there are plenty of exceptions, how to spot them, and how to play them correctly, so rather than nitpick it, we could sit back and enjoy the beauty and the humor. However, the damn nubs have a bad tendency to take just about any blanket statement written here to extremes, and then subsequently make a lot of bad decisions and bad threads based on it.
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#18
09-12-2007, 01:59 PM
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Re: I turned the nuts
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] wookie it's okay to just say you agree [/ QUOTE ] If I was just talking with you, I'd simply say that your statement was true, since we're both good enough poker players to know that there are plenty of exceptions, how to spot them, and how to play them correctly, so rather than nitpick it, we could sit back and enjoy the beauty and the humor. However, the damn nubs have a bad tendency to take just about any blanket statement written here to extremes, and then subsequently make a lot of bad decisions and bad threads based on it. [/ QUOTE ] This is why you're green, imo.
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#19
09-12-2007, 02:31 PM
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Re: I turned the nuts
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] wookie it's okay to just say you agree [/ QUOTE ] If I was just talking with you, I'd simply say that your statement was true, since we're both good enough poker players to know that there are plenty of exceptions, how to spot them, and how to play them correctly, so rather than nitpick it, we could sit back and enjoy the beauty and the humor. However, the damn nubs have a bad tendency to take just about any blanket statement written here to extremes, and then subsequently make a lot of bad decisions and bad threads based on it. [/ QUOTE ] The quoted post applies in the other slowplay thread, and I believe it applies here as well. I understand that it doesn't apply everywhere, but it just seemed very fitting here. Honestly, I was posting it more lightheartedly than as an all-encompassing mantra. I don't even know if BBB wrote it, or if he really talks like that IRL. My bad.
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