wtf turn fold

[HOWMANY]

Hand from a stox vid I'm watching while waiting for laundry to finish. Villain appears to be 36/25/2.3 over 800 hands. UTG is random loose passive fish over 70 hands. Game is FTP 30/60.

UTG limps, villain limps, Stox raises K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], fold to bb who calls, limpers call

Flop Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Check to villain who donks, Stox raises, utg calls two cold, villain 3bets, Stox caps and says he'll take a free card on the turn (which also seems like a huge disaster to me and I would like to discuss), both players call

Turn 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
check, villain bets, Stox folds

So basically I feel like I just took a whole bottle of crazy pills after seeing this hand.

[whodaman]

turn fold is bad... he could very easily think we were capping for a free card with and donk with a hand worse than ours....

and wtf is with him planning to take a free card on this turn... lots of draws can be out there... he limped pf so sets are out of the question. so he specifically puts him on AA or 2 pair. Pot is way to big to even contemplate folding here.

PS I would raise the turn as played.. charge UTG and make villian pay more with his qj.

[whodaman]

oh yea he could have JT too

i think raise>>call>>>>>>>>& gt;>>>fold

[gaming_mouse]

Well villain is not bluffing or semi-bluffing here... he's protecting against a check behind. The only danger is would he make this protection bet with a Q? Only Q's that make sense are QTo, maybe Q7s. So he has to have one of those hands, 3b the flop with it, then donk even though stox capped the flop. I guess stox felt that parlay was unlikely.

[Oink]

QTo is quite a few hands no?

Also, isnt T8s and 8xcc in the LAGs range?

BTW against JT Hero has 4 outs and he is getting 10:1 as far as I can see. Does the loose passive raise that often behind Hero? I doubt it!

This seems like a bad fold to me.


Taking the free card would never enter my mind either.

[gaming_mouse]

QT, Q8s, Q7s - 17 combos (we're ahead)
TJ - 16 (4 outs)
98 - 9 (2 outs)
Q9 - 9 (2 outs)
T9 - 8 (2 outs)
J9 - 8 (2 outs)
K9 - 4 (0 outs)
A9 - 8 (2 outs)

I dont think he plays T8cc or 87cc like this, but it's only 2 combos anyway. My range may be a bit wide (he raises A9 sometimes at least, eg).

Anyway, pot is 11 bets. Ignoring times when we call and UTG is sandbagging (which makes our situation worse, but is canceled somewhat by his overlay), let say we pay 2 bets to win 13, which should be close to right I think. Effective odds: 6.5:1

So we have easily enough to make the calldown, but we havn't discounted his playing the Q hands this way. If you think they should be discounted alot, then the fold is still correct......

[Oink]

We can prolly debate ranges forever.

But

- If he plays QTo like this preflop he will also play QJo with non zero probability

- If he jams K9 on this flop he is also jamming 8xcc and T8s. (Pretty much the same hand vs Stox's range)
Few combos tho. So whatever.

- Its a debateable flop donk with JT. Shouldnt he rather go for a c/r trying to trap UTG?


If this turn fold is expert I am never gonna be expert [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[gaming_mouse]

ya, and i'm not saying i think the fold is necessarily correct. just guessing at the reasoning behind it.

cliff notes on my argument: If you don't think he plays made Q hands this way, the fold makes sense.

[Entity]

I think the flop cap for a free card is really bad on this board, but I don't think the turn fold is all that bad. Generally I'd calldown from the flop 3-bet unless the board got particularly scarier.

Rob

[joker122]

he does stuff like this from time to time and it doesn't make sense to me. another example stox opens OTB with JJ. a loose sb 3bets, stox caps. flop comes 234r and sb c/c. turn is 9r and stox 3bets the CR and says he's taking a free SD.