2007PBWC NLH FinalTable - Bot mistake? or misfortune? - Page 3

Slim Pickens · #21 10-07-2007, 10:09 PM

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Can you elaborate on exactly what you're doing to calculate the bot's losing chances for the hand of 56.69%?

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Slim,

That is the statistical chance of losing to the range of all possible hands. The number gets worse if Guarans preflop raising range is smaller (which we can only guess at).

RIIT

[/ QUOTE ]

For the love of all that's good please just tell me what you think his preflop min-reraise range is. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

RIIT · #22 10-07-2007, 10:13 PM

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[ QUOTE ]
Can you elaborate on exactly what you're doing to calculate the bot's losing chances for the hand of 56.69%?

[/ QUOTE ]

Slim,

That is the statistical chance of losing to the range of all possible hands. The number gets worse if Guarans preflop raising range is smaller (which we can only guess at).

RIIT

[/ QUOTE ]

For the love of all that's good please just tell me what you think his preflop min-reraise range is. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Slim,

I have no idea man. I guess we could review the 17 previous hands and make a guess.

RIIT

Tantalus747 · #23 10-07-2007, 10:17 PM

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I agree with you if this had been a regular cash game where pushing A9o preflop after a reraise from the bb seems way too risky - as I said already, the bots ROR was already at 46% against all hands.

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You keep bringing that number up, but villain doesn't have a random hand, he has a reraising hand from out of position. I would suggest a study of Bayes' Theorem if you have not.

I started to say even pushing A-Q there would be horrific but then caught myself; there's really no hand that makes that overbet look sane.

[/ QUOTE ]

Tantalus,

The 46% was my error. The correct ROR number is 57+%. Yes I agree that the push was a mistake (some of my previous comments were due to the incorrect 46% number).

RIIT

[/ QUOTE ]

Even here as it's played, that number will be too low if the push is called by an unknown hand because after the call there's huge percentage of the time you're getting shown AA and almost 0% of the time you're called by something weaker than KK and AK. (I seriously doubt a strong player would even call w/ AK here w/out a good read.)

So your 57% is actually the best case when called and when folded to you basically get nothing compared to the stack sizes.

btw, I added a comment to my above post in edit, thought I got it quick enough.

RIIT · #24 10-07-2007, 10:25 PM

2007 PokerBot World Championship NLH Final Table
First 18 hands:

Hand# 2723 2007-09-28 18:06:48 GMT PBWC-Valor
Table# 3 Table3 PlayMoney .50 1 1 NoLimit Holdem
HTC Chair2 1000
AsbakAlpha Chair5 1000
Guaran Chair8 1000 BUTTON
HTC SBLIND .50
AsbakAlpha BBLIND 1
DEALER DEAL
HTC HAND 3c Qs
AsbakAlpha HAND 7d Qh
Guaran HAND 9h 5c
Guaran FOLD
HTC RAISE 1.50
AsbakAlpha FOLD
HTC MUCK
DEALER POT 3
HTC RFND 1
HTC WIN 2

Hand# 2724 2007-09-28 18:07:06 GMT PBWC-Valor
Table# 3 Table3 PlayMoney .50 1 1 NoLimit Holdem
AsbakAlpha Chair5 999
Guaran Chair8 1000
HTC Chair2 1001 BUTTON
AsbakAlpha SBLIND .50
Guaran BBLIND 1
DEALER DEAL
AsbakAlpha HAND Qc Qh
Guaran HAND Ts 4h
HTC HAND Jc 8s
HTC CALL 1
AsbakAlpha RAISE 3
Guaran FOLD
HTC CALL 2.50
DEALER FLOP 6s Jd 6h
AsbakAlpha BET 4
HTC RAISE 8
AsbakAlpha FOLD
HTC MUCK
DEALER POT 20
HTC RFND 4
HTC WIN 16

Hand# 2725 2007-09-28 18:07:36 GMT PBWC-Valor
Table# 3 Table3 PlayMoney .50 1 1 NoLimit Holdem
Guaran Chair8 999
HTC Chair2 1009.50
AsbakAlpha Chair5 991.50 BUTTON
Guaran SBLIND .50
HTC BBLIND 1
DEALER DEAL
Guaran HAND 4s Kh
HTC HAND 9c Qd
AsbakAlpha HAND 6d Ks
AsbakAlpha RAISE 3
Guaran FOLD
HTC CALL 2
DEALER FLOP Ad Td 9d
HTC CHECK
AsbakAlpha BET 3
HTC CALL 3
DEALER TURN 5c
HTC CHECK
AsbakAlpha CHECK
DEALER RIVER 4c
HTC CHECK
AsbakAlpha CHECK
HTC POKER 99AQTo One Pair - Nines - Ace Queen Ten
AsbakAlpha POKER AKT96o High Card - Ace King Ten Nine Six
DEALER POT 12.50
HTC WIN 12.50

Hand# 2726 2007-09-28 18:08:12 GMT PBWC-Valor
Table# 3 Table3 PlayMoney .50 1 1 NoLimit Holdem
HTC Chair2 1016
AsbakAlpha Chair5 985.50
Guaran Chair8 998.50 BUTTON
HTC SBLIND .50
AsbakAlpha BBLIND 1
DEALER DEAL
HTC HAND 4d Ts
AsbakAlpha HAND 4c 5s
Guaran HAND Td 2s
Guaran FOLD
HTC FOLD
AsbakAlpha MUCK
DEALER POT 1.50
AsbakAlpha RFND .50
AsbakAlpha WIN 1

Hand# 2727 2007-09-28 18:08:24 GMT PBWC-Valor
Table# 3 Table3 PlayMoney .50 1 1 NoLimit Holdem
AsbakAlpha Chair5 986
Guaran Chair8 998.50
HTC Chair2 1015.50 BUTTON
AsbakAlpha SBLIND .50
Guaran BBLIND 1
DEALER DEAL
AsbakAlpha HAND Qd 9d
Guaran HAND 2d 6s
HTC HAND 7h 6c
HTC RAISE 2
AsbakAlpha FOLD
Guaran FOLD
HTC MUCK
DEALER POT 3.50
HTC RFND 1
HTC WIN 2.50

Hand# 2728 2007-09-28 18:08:41 GMT PBWC-Valor
Table# 3 Table3 PlayMoney .50 1 1 NoLimit Holdem
Guaran Chair8 997.50
HTC Chair2 1017
AsbakAlpha Chair5 985.50 BUTTON
Guaran SBLIND .50
HTC BBLIND 1
DEALER DEAL
Guaran HAND As Qh
HTC HAND 7s 6d
AsbakAlpha HAND 2c Kc
AsbakAlpha RAISE 3
Guaran CALL 2.50
HTC CALL 2
DEALER FLOP Jh 7d 8s
Guaran BET 2
HTC CALL 2
AsbakAlpha FOLD
DEALER TURN 6c
Guaran CHECK
HTC BET 8
Guaran FOLD
HTC MUCK
DEALER POT 21
HTC RFND 8
HTC WIN 13

Hand# 2729 2007-09-28 18:09:15 GMT PBWC-Valor
Table# 3 Table3 PlayMoney .50 1 1 NoLimit Holdem
HTC Chair2 1025
AsbakAlpha Chair5 982.50
Guaran Chair8 992.50 BUTTON
HTC SBLIND .50
AsbakAlpha BBLIND 1
DEALER DEAL
HTC HAND 5h 7h
AsbakAlpha HAND 7d 9h
Guaran HAND Jc 3s
Guaran FOLD
HTC RAISE 1.50
AsbakAlpha FOLD
HTC MUCK
DEALER POT 3
HTC RFND 1
HTC WIN 2

Hand# 2730 2007-09-28 18:09:30 GMT PBWC-Valor
Table# 3 Table3 PlayMoney .50 1 1 NoLimit Holdem
AsbakAlpha Chair5 981.50
Guaran Chair8 992.50
HTC Chair2 1026 BUTTON
AsbakAlpha SBLIND .50
Guaran BBLIND 1
DEALER DEAL
AsbakAlpha HAND Qh 2c
Guaran HAND Ah 4h
HTC HAND Jd Js
HTC RAISE 3
AsbakAlpha FOLD
Guaran CALL 2
DEALER FLOP 3h 6h Ac
Guaran CHECK
HTC BET 4
Guaran RAISE 14
HTC FOLD
Guaran MUCK
DEALER POT 24.50
Guaran RFND 10
Guaran WIN 14.50

Hand# 2731 2007-09-28 18:10:04 GMT PBWC-Valor
Table# 3 Table3 PlayMoney .50 1 1 NoLimit Holdem
Guaran Chair8 1000
HTC Chair2 1019
AsbakAlpha Chair5 981 BUTTON
Guaran SBLIND .50
HTC BBLIND 1
DEALER DEAL
Guaran HAND 6h Tc
HTC HAND 9s 5s
AsbakAlpha HAND Kd 5c
AsbakAlpha RAISE 3
Guaran FOLD
HTC CALL 2
DEALER FLOP 7d 7c Th
HTC CHECK
AsbakAlpha BET 3
HTC FOLD
AsbakAlpha MUCK
DEALER POT 9.50
AsbakAlpha RFND 3
AsbakAlpha WIN 6.50

Hand# 2732 2007-09-28 18:10:25 GMT PBWC-Valor
Table# 3 Table3 PlayMoney .50 1 1 NoLimit Holdem
HTC Chair2 1016
AsbakAlpha Chair5 984.50
Guaran Chair8 999.50 BUTTON
HTC SBLIND .50
AsbakAlpha BBLIND 1
DEALER DEAL
HTC HAND Ks Qd
AsbakAlpha HAND 3s 2d
Guaran HAND 7h 6d
Guaran RAISE 2
HTC CALL 1.50
AsbakAlpha FOLD
DEALER FLOP 7s Qc 2h
HTC CHECK
Guaran BET 2
HTC CALL 2
DEALER TURN 5h
HTC CHECK
Guaran BET 3
HTC CALL 3
DEALER RIVER 6h
HTC CHECK
Guaran BET 10
HTC CALL 10
Guaran POKER 7766Qo Two Pair - Sevens and Sixes - Queen high
HTC MUCK
DEALER POT 35
Guaran WIN 35

Hand# 2733 2007-09-28 18:11:14 GMT PBWC-Valor
Table# 3 Table3 PlayMoney 1 2 2 NoLimit Holdem
AsbakAlpha Chair5 983.50
Guaran Chair8 1017.50
HTC Chair2 999 BUTTON
AsbakAlpha SBLIND 1
Guaran BBLIND 2
DEALER DEAL
AsbakAlpha HAND Js 2c
Guaran HAND 5d 5s
HTC HAND Tc Ah
HTC RAISE 4
AsbakAlpha FOLD
Guaran CALL 2
DEALER FLOP Qc 2h 4s
Guaran CHECK
HTC BET 2
Guaran CALL 2
DEALER TURN 2s
Guaran CHECK
HTC CHECK
DEALER RIVER 4h
Guaran BET 5
HTC CALL 5
Guaran POKER 5544Qo Two Pair - Fives and Fours - Queen high
HTC MUCK
DEALER POT 23
Guaran WIN 23

Hand# 2734 2007-09-28 18:11:53 GMT PBWC-Valor
Table# 3 Table3 PlayMoney 1 2 2 NoLimit Holdem
Guaran Chair8 1029.50
HTC Chair2 988
AsbakAlpha Chair5 982.50 BUTTON
Guaran SBLIND 1
HTC BBLIND 2
DEALER DEAL
Guaran HAND 3c Ts
HTC HAND Kd 6h
AsbakAlpha HAND 3h Qc
AsbakAlpha FOLD
Guaran FOLD
HTC MUCK
DEALER POT 3
HTC RFND 1
HTC WIN 2

Hand# 2735 2007-09-28 18:12:05 GMT PBWC-Valor
Table# 3 Table3 PlayMoney 1 2 2 NoLimit Holdem
HTC Chair2 989
AsbakAlpha Chair5 982.50
Guaran Chair8 1028.50 BUTTON
HTC SBLIND 1
AsbakAlpha BBLIND 2
DEALER DEAL
HTC HAND Ah As
AsbakAlpha HAND Qs Tc
Guaran HAND 6s 5h
Guaran FOLD
HTC RAISE 3
AsbakAlpha FOLD
HTC MUCK
DEALER POT 6
HTC RFND 2
HTC WIN 4

Hand# 2736 2007-09-28 18:12:19 GMT PBWC-Valor
Table# 3 Table3 PlayMoney 1 2 2 NoLimit Holdem
AsbakAlpha Chair5 980.50
Guaran Chair8 1028.50
HTC Chair2 991 BUTTON
AsbakAlpha SBLIND 1
Guaran BBLIND 2
DEALER DEAL
AsbakAlpha HAND Ah 9h
Guaran HAND Th Jd
HTC HAND 8h 6s
HTC CALL 2
AsbakAlpha RAISE 6
Guaran CALL 5
HTC CALL 5
DEALER FLOP Js Td 4h
AsbakAlpha BET 12
Guaran RAISE 24
HTC FOLD
AsbakAlpha FOLD
Guaran MUCK
DEALER POT 57
Guaran RFND 12
Guaran WIN 45

Hand# 2737 2007-09-28 18:12:56 GMT PBWC-Valor
Table# 3 Table3 PlayMoney 1 2 2 NoLimit Holdem
Guaran Chair8 1054.50
HTC Chair2 984
AsbakAlpha Chair5 961.50 BUTTON
Guaran SBLIND 1
HTC BBLIND 2
DEALER DEAL
Guaran HAND 3d Ts
HTC HAND 2h 9c
AsbakAlpha HAND 6d 7s
AsbakAlpha FOLD
Guaran FOLD
HTC MUCK
DEALER POT 3
HTC RFND 1
HTC WIN 2

Hand# 2738 2007-09-28 18:13:08 GMT PBWC-Valor
Table# 3 Table3 PlayMoney 1 2 2 NoLimit Holdem
HTC Chair2 985
AsbakAlpha Chair5 961.50
Guaran Chair8 1053.50 BUTTON
HTC SBLIND 1
AsbakAlpha BBLIND 2
DEALER DEAL
HTC HAND 3s 2s
AsbakAlpha HAND Tc 3d
Guaran HAND 5d 9c
Guaran FOLD
HTC CALL 1
AsbakAlpha CHECK
DEALER FLOP 7d 4c 5s
HTC CHECK
AsbakAlpha CHECK
DEALER TURN 9h
HTC CHECK
AsbakAlpha CHECK
DEALER RIVER Qd
HTC BET 5.56
AsbakAlpha FOLD
HTC MUCK
DEALER POT 9.56
HTC RFND 5.56
HTC WIN 4

Hand# 2739 2007-09-28 18:13:46 GMT PBWC-Valor
Table# 3 Table3 PlayMoney 1 2 2 NoLimit Holdem
AsbakAlpha Chair5 959.50
Guaran Chair8 1053.50
HTC Chair2 987 BUTTON
AsbakAlpha SBLIND 1
Guaran BBLIND 2
DEALER DEAL
AsbakAlpha HAND 2c Tc
Guaran HAND Qd 5c
HTC HAND Js 7s
HTC CALL 2
AsbakAlpha FOLD
Guaran CHECK
DEALER FLOP Jh Ts 3d
Guaran CHECK
HTC BET 2
Guaran FOLD
HTC MUCK
DEALER POT 7
HTC RFND 2
HTC WIN 5

Hand# 2740 2007-09-28 18:14:12 GMT PBWC-Valor
Table# 3 Table3 PlayMoney 1 2 2 NoLimit Holdem
Guaran Chair8 1051.50
HTC Chair2 990
AsbakAlpha Chair5 958.50 BUTTON
Guaran SBLIND 1
HTC BBLIND 2
DEALER DEAL
Guaran HAND Kc Ks
HTC HAND 8h Ts
AsbakAlpha HAND 9d As
AsbakAlpha RAISE 6
Guaran RAISE 10
HTC FOLD
AsbakAlpha RAISE 952.50 ALLIN
Guaran RAISE 1040.50 ALLIN
DEALER FLOP Qs 7s 2c
DEALER TURN 5d
DEALER RIVER 9s
Guaran POKER KKQ97o One Pair - Kings - Queen Nine Seven
AsbakAlpha POKER 99AQ7o One Pair - Nines - Ace Queen Seven
DEALER POT 2012
Guaran RFND 93
Guaran WIN 1919

Slim Pickens · #25 10-07-2007, 10:36 PM

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Can you elaborate on exactly what you're doing to calculate the bot's losing chances for the hand of 56.69%?

[/ QUOTE ]

Slim,

That is the statistical chance of losing to the range of all possible hands. The number gets worse if Guarans preflop raising range is smaller (which we can only guess at).

RIIT

[/ QUOTE ]

For the love of all that's good please just tell me what you think his preflop min-reraise range is. [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Slim,

I have no idea man. I guess we could review the 17 previous hands and make a guess.

RIIT

[/ QUOTE ]

There's probably a better starting point than that, like, what hands it would be +cEV to min 3-bet against some sort of reasonable button open-raise range.

It really sounds like you're plugging bad numbers into software you don't understand because you can't explain where your numbers come from or what they mean.

Injection · #26 10-07-2007, 10:42 PM

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Can you elaborate on exactly what you're doing to calculate the bot's losing chances for the hand of 56.69%?

[/ QUOTE ]

Slim,

That is the statistical chance of losing to the range of all possible hands. The number gets worse if Guarans preflop raising range is smaller (which we can only guess at).

RIIT

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh Ray....cough RIIT [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

People don't call based on random hands (unlike the way Winholdem thinks). Call $900 on a 1/2 blind is insane (unless you have AA).

Making that bet is worst.
With one guy to act he has AA 1 in 216 times. If two guys are left to act that is 1 in 108 times (between the two of them).

HUGE -EV play.

Despite what your iterator tells you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ray's never been able to fathom the wordwrap feature, but I don't think you're too far off. I personally don't like open discussion on any kind of bot-related strat as I don't see how it's beneficial to us at all.

RIIT · #27 10-07-2007, 10:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can you elaborate on exactly what you're doing to calculate the bot's losing chances for the hand of 56.69%?

[/ QUOTE ]

Slim,

That is the statistical chance of losing to the range of all possible hands. The number gets worse if Guarans preflop raising range is smaller (which we can only guess at).

RIIT

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh Ray....cough RIIT [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

People don't call based on random hands (unlike the way Winholdem thinks). Call $900 on a 1/2 blind is insane (unless you have AA).

Making that bet is worst.
With one guy to act he has AA 1 in 216 times. If two guys are left to act that is 1 in 108 times (between the two of them).

HUGE -EV play.

Despite what your iterator tells you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ray's never been able to fathom the wordwrap feature, but I don't think you're too far off. I personally don't like open discussion on any kind of bot-related strat as I don't see how it's beneficial to us at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's both historical and interesting. You should feel privileged to be part of the discussion.

RIIT

Tantalus747 · #28 10-07-2007, 10:46 PM

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There's probably a better starting point than that, like, what hands it would be +cEV to min 3-bet against some sort of reasonable button open-raise range.

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OP, I would also suggest working out the proper bet amount. No matter the cards, that crazy AI (pun not intended [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])over bet (in position too!) simply can't be correct.

Tantalus747 · #29 10-07-2007, 10:52 PM

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I personally don't like open discussion on any kind of bot-related strat as I don't see how it's beneficial to us at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem with that this isn't human strategy or bot strategy, it's just poker strategy. Our insane bot in this case could well be a donk.

This wouldn't even be here but for a mistake the programmer knows he made (thinking it was ITM) and will surely correct with or without us.

RIIT · #30 10-07-2007, 10:54 PM

Slim,

The numbers were based on the widest possible hand range from Guaran. My point was that if it's a bad play against the widest range possible then it certainly can't be any better for what we'd consider a normal range for Guaran (regardless).

RIIT