***Official November Chat Thread: The Golden Duck***

[TheProdigy]

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Good analogy, yes or no?

To be able to produce a consistent return in anything, one must prove that the game is not decided by chance but by skill. In baseball, the Yankees always buy the best players and consistently produce returns, by making the playoffs every year. Although nearly everyone considers baseball to be considered a skill game, there are luck factors in it just like there are luck factors in poker. James McManus, a writer for The New York Times, points out the luck factors in baseball. He talks about how different umpires could call one pitch a strike and one a ball, how the wind can push down a ball that could be a home-run one day and how it could make a ball that wasn’t hit well a home-run the next day (D7). Although luck is a factor in the game, the reason that the Yankees keep winning is that skill is the biggest factor in the long-run. It is easy to illustrate the long-run by showing that the Yankees keep making the playoffs because of a long season where they win consistently. Unfortunately, these same Yankees haven’t won a championship in many years because in each round of the playoffs the teams only play until one team wins three games. Even though the Yankees may be the better team, natural factors and things out of their control have led to their losses in the short-term playoffs recently.

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I like the analogy. It would be better if the Red Sox were used as the reference instead of the Yankees, though. The Yankees haven't won a world series since you were in Kindergarten, Prod.

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Hey, thanks.

Actually the reason I used the Yankees is because of that. Over the long course of the season(long-term), they keep making the playoffs. Each year people think they are the best team/etc, but each year in the short term(5 game playoff series), they keep losing. This isn't exactly the same but it kinda shows that the short run can be affected by some luck because out of the last 13 or so years that Yankees have been in the playoffs there have def. been less talented, not as good teams beating them in the playoffs. But they are still winning over the long run [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[too eazy]

hey schwallie the yanks lose cause God realizes they are scum and smites them.

[TheProdigy]

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hey schwallie the yanks lose cause God realizes they are scum and smites them.

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If that was true then you would never win in poker. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[GrandMelon]

god Im running like terry schavio

[1p0kerboy]

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

MP2: $34.35
CO: $71.45
BTN: $15.90
SB: $120.10
Hero (BB): $129.30
UTG: $122.05
UTG+1: $135.40
UTG+2: $162.25
MP1: $57.65

Pre-Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $1, 5 folds, BTN calls $1, SB folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($3.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, UTG folds, BTN calls $3

Turn: ($9.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($9.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $20</font>, BTN calls $11.90 and is All-In

Results: $33.30 Pot ($1.60 Rake)
BTN showed J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a Royal Flush) and WON $15.85 (-$0.05 NET)
Hero showed 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a Royal Flush) and WON $15.85 (-$0.05 NET)

[too eazy]

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Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

MP2: $34.35

You missed a value bet...
CO: $71.45
BTN: $15.90
SB: $120.10
Hero (BB): $129.30
UTG: $122.05
UTG+1: $135.40
UTG+2: $162.25
MP1: $57.65

Pre-Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BB)
UTG calls $1, 5 folds, BTN calls $1, SB folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($3.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, UTG folds, BTN calls $3

Turn: ($9.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($9.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $20</font>, BTN calls $11.90 and is All-In

Results: $33.30 Pot ($1.60 Rake)
BTN showed J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a Royal Flush) and WON $15.85 (-$0.05 NET)
Hero showed 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a Royal Flush) and WON $15.85 (-$0.05 NET)

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You missed a value bet on the turn.

[PokerFun007]

wow, never seen that before!

[Hklm8383]

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god Im running like terry schavio

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well at least your not running like me.....


( im running like Cédrika Provencher )

[GrandMelon]

ty


Poker Stars, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 8 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $309.50
BB: $100
UTG: $237.60
UTG+1: $474.70
MP1: $75.40
MP2: $400
CO: $341.90
Hero (BTN): $758.85

Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (BTN)
4 folds, CO calls $4, <font color="red">Hero raises to $20</font>, 2 folds, CO calls $16

Flop: ($46) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">CO bets $16</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $56</font>, CO calls $40

Turn: ($158) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">CO bets $144</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $682.85 and is All-In</font>, CO calls $121.90 and is All-In

River: ($689.80) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 is All-In)

Results: $689.80 Pot ($3 Rake)
CO showed 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (two pair, Nines and Sevens) and LOST (-$341.90 NET)
Hero showed A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Sevens) and WON $686.80 (+$344.90 NET)

[MyTurn2Raise]

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CDL, a couple of months ago (I think it was in August) I went on a 25 buy-in downswing playing FR 200NL. It was absolutely disgusting. I honestly wondered how many regs had ever gone on a downswing that huge playing nothing but full ring. I almost guarantee nobody here has. There were a couple of times during that stretch where I seriously wondered if I would ever recover from this. But you know what? I did. And I recovered much quicker than I thought I would.

The one piece of advice I can give you is don't sit there and play 24/7 like I did during my run. I was literally playing about 14 hours a day during that stretch, and if I would have taken some time off I believe I would have probably saved myself 5-10 buy-ins. Ever since that run I have implemented a 5 buy-in stop loss. If I am ever down 5 or more buy-ins in a day, I am done.

Hang in there, man. You are a good player and you will get things turned around. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind.

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I have had downswings that big despite a huge sample that shows me to be a mediocre winner (2ptbb-3ptbb range)

that's why I have alot of trouble with anyone that uses the bell curve to come up with downswing and upswing potential

I've printed out quite a few player graphs and they are much more swingy than the stats would say using a guassian distribution