Ac7c. Cap or no Cap?

[ZOMG_RIGGED!]

so a 2+2 is claiming I'm a moron but my play makes perfect sense to me so I throw myself so the mercy of the 2+2 courts.

AP 5-T.

MP: God's gift to good players. VPIP: 90+% WTSD: 72+% PFR: 0% AF: .4ish Only time I've ever seen him raise PF was a stone cold bluff. No idea how he plays big starts pairs, so they are in his range.

MP+1: me. Ac7c

SB: Fish I have friend listed. In a 500 hand sample I have him running at -7.4 BB/100 with a VPIP for the SB at 80%. Horrible player, but smart enough to reraise here with the top of his range. No PP AA-TT or AK, AQ, maybe AJ or AT.

BB: 2+2. His claimed Range. AA-TT, AK, AKs, AQs, AJs

MP limps. I raise to isolate. SB calls. BB 3 bets. Mp calls. I cappies. All call.

With a rough estimate as to what a 80% range is with no top hands PS gives me:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.583% 23.40% 00.50% 4748398503 102069370.50 { Ac7c }
Hand 1: 46.083% 46.53% 00.19% 9440653136 37619574.00 { TT+, AJs+, AKo }
Hand 2: 12.298% 12.18% 00.29% 2471116882 58234387.00 { random }
Hand 3: 18.037% 17.46% 00.82% 3543425023 166388636.50 { 99-44, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 53s+, 43s, 32s, AJo-A2o, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 94o+, 85o+, 75o+, 65o, 53o+ }

If we loosen up BB's claimed 3 bet range to a still realistic one:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.577% 30.04% 00.66% 15110427404 333929777.25 { Ac7c }
Hand 1: 31.996% 31.73% 00.40% 15961674248 199395740.25 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 18.102% 17.78% 00.40% 8942612041 200856014.25 { random }
Hand 3: 19.325% 18.16% 01.25% 9132933430 628403425.25 { 99-44, AJs-A2s, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 53s+, 43s, 32s, AJo-A2o, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 94o+, 85o+, 75o+, 65o, 53o+ }

So realistically I lay somewhere in the middle.

So my claim is my cap is fine becuase it preserves a little mystery to the BB with the intent of gettting a 4 card flop if I want one. If I just call I think BB bets his range 100% on the flop but a cap gets me some leeway. I have no plan on the betting the flop unless I catch. SB and MP provide HUGE implied odds, and I feel not only is my hand extremly easy to play but BB is extremly easy to play against at this point.

So 2+2, does a cap have merit here? My claim is that its probable close to even but at worst only slightly -EV, BB claims is burning money

[Oink]

Seems like you have answered your own post [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If your ranges holds up this is fine. If nothing else to piss of the fellow 2p2'er who will now hate your guts which may or may not affect his decisions later on.

[ZOMG_RIGGED!]

[ QUOTE ]
Seems like you have answered your own post

[/ QUOTE ]

But can you trust the logic of a madman?

[Oink]

Nope

I do trust the stove tho [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Tryptamean]

you make a good case to cap, given the overlay from the fish and your position. you should post the rest of the hand that got the 2p2r all bent out of shape

[ZOMG_RIGGED!]

he says I played the rest of the hand perfectly, it was just the PF that he didnt like. he's a better player than me but my thinking made perfect sense to me so I thought I'd investigate. I think postflop was completly standard so I didnt post.

I'm not at my home comp so an exact HH will have to be provide by him

Flop was Q2 and I think a 4 or 5. 1 club. checked around

turn was a mid club. SB bet. BB raised. Mp cold called. I called. Sb called or folded.

River was an ace. Bb and Mp checked. I bet. both called. BB had JJ, Mp had J2

[milesdyson]

sb range is too loose. his vpip is 80% in the sb overall. that doesn't mean he plays 53o T2o and 94o to a raise.

don't cap.

[ZOMG_RIGGED!]

If I give the SB a 75% range that doesnt include the BB 3bet range I can come up with a bunch of ranges between 21% and 23% for me. t2o may not be in the SB range but I have no doubt 53o, 94 may or mybe not. He doesnt like to fold ever once he has chips in the pot.

I guess this is a super specific question because its the perfect storm of fish, and I wouldnt cap here if you changed either of them. I guess the question boils down to how big is a 3-4% advantage and can it be overcome by position and the garenteed implied odds?

edit. meh. I decided 21% or 21.5% is probably a better number

[milesdyson]

pretty sure capping reduces your implied odds slightly as people will play even more cautiously on an ace high board after you cap.