1/2 NL Live

[D0p3Ad1c7]

No read on Villan just got moved to the 2nd game, about ten mins ago

Both of us have around ~$900

UTG and UTG +1 Fold

I get dealt AJ Spades
Raise to 15

Folds to Button who calls, blinds fold

Flop comes K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
I bet 15, Button min raises to 30, I call

Turn J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Check , Check

River 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Check, Button Bets $100

Is this a call and expect to see either J10 or Broken hearts? Or is this a fold and wait for a better spot to pick him off, since the only thing we really beat is broken hearts or 10J for broken straight

[freedom18]

which do you think is more likely, a bluff or JT,Kx,Qx
now take those into account via percentages, do you think you will beat him 1:2 times? In that lies your answer

[DonovanMD]

Easy fold. He has a Q or a weak K, and if he doesnt and its a pure bluff good for him, he's betting slightly larger than pot, calling with third pair is just plain stupid to me. You can find a better spot.

[thac]

Readless, fold flop.. what are you trying to accomplish by calling? Hitting your miracle non-heart 10?

[lwrunner103]

Donovan that is pretty worthless/terrible reasoning. Just because he has third pair makes it a fold? Was the table aggro/passive? As played I snap call the river because the minraise on flop is hearts or JT a lot. I bet like 25 on flop and fold to any raise.

[jjshabado]

I've gotta say absent some pretty solid reads, this seems like a fairly easy fold on the river. Calling a >pot size bet just hoping to catch a bluff doesn't seem like a great idea to me. If your opponent is going to make bluffs like this it probably won't be long before you can find a better spot against him.

At best a river call is barely +EV and high variance. More likely its -EV and high variance.

[DonovanMD]

[ QUOTE ]
Donovan that is pretty worthless/terrible reasoning. Just because he has third pair makes it a fold? Was the table aggro/passive? As played I snap call the river because the minraise on flop is hearts or JT a lot. I bet like 25 on flop and fold to any raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reading my response I dont think it was the best explanation of my reasoning, I can agree with that. But to say you snap call based on the way the hand played out? I get your reasoning here on the missed draws line but is it really a +EV call, does he really have a busted draw more often than a weak K or a Q? Maybe I'm just a nit but I dont like trying to make big fancy call downs in spots like this especially since its a live game and the minraising donks are much more often doing it with pairs as opposed to draws.