$20+1+1 vs BAKES!

[TwistedEcho]

I know who he is, he knows who i am etc

Seat 1: andy4484 (31054 in chips)
Seat 2: jems25 (13385 in chips)
Seat 3: Bluff_man79 (9219 in chips)
Seat 4: mike4583 (18266 in chips)
Seat 5: WhooooKidd (14348 in chips)
Seat 7: ^JohnyBoy77^ (13334 in chips)
Seat 8: TwistedEcho (18795 in chips)
Seat 9: NileFever (8945 in chips)
andy4484: posts the ante 50
jems25: posts the ante 50
Bluff_man79: posts the ante 50
mike4583: posts the ante 50
WhooooKidd: posts the ante 50
^JohnyBoy77^: posts the ante 50
TwistedEcho: posts the ante 50
NileFever: posts the ante 50
WhooooKidd: posts small blind 300
^JohnyBoy77^: posts big blind 600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to TwistedEcho [Ad Jh]
TwistedEcho: raises 1200 to 1800
NileFever: folds
andy4484: folds
jems25: folds
Bluff_man79: folds
mike4583: folds
WhooooKidd: calls 1500
^JohnyBoy77^: folds
*** FLOP *** [Ah 9c Tc]
WhooooKidd: checks
TwistedEcho: bets 3000
WhooooKidd: raises 9498 to 12498 and is all-in
TwistedEcho: calls 9498

[FGators]

Standard. If you had the J of clubs I think I'd highly consider mucking this because it takes the KQ clubs/KJ clubs/QJ clubs out of his semibluffing range. Given the past history I can't see folding this.

[4CardStraight]

Bakes will muck AT from early position unopened at a stiff table. Theres no way hes playing a pair of tens with a bad kicker like this (JT, KT, etc). His range to make this play is basically 99,TT,KcQc,AcQc,Ac,Kc, or Ac with K or Q of an offsuit.

Hes not speculating with a small pair or bad clubs here, I dont think. This is a pokerstove without assuming any bias towards clubs in his hand:

Hand 0: 41.790% 39.14% 02.65% 146976 9970.00 { AdJh }
Hand 1: 58.210% 55.56% 02.66% 208646 9970.50 { 99+, ATs+, AQo+ }

And that assumes he would check raise all in with JJ QQ or KK here, which i really dont think is likely.

And equity against a very likely holding:

Hand 0: 09.697% 08.18% 01.52% 600380 111276.50 { AdJh }
Hand 1: 90.303% 88.80% 01.52% 6516574 111280.00 { AcQc }

Yeah, I dunno, I think this is a muck myself. ON the whole multi-level thing, sure he may be making this play on the assumption that you will be folding top pair bad kicker, and be doing it with a worse hand than what you have... but.... since you call, my guess is more that his level is that you are willing to pay off with a pair of aces, so his hand range is a set, a massive combo draw, or NFD that also has you outkicked.

In a 20$ tourney, theres better spots to be in than smooth called from a bad position by a solid player, who then check raises us on a combo board where our top pair medium kicker is the worst hand that most any hand either of us would play preflop would be in....

[TwistedEcho]

I'm pretty sure bakes is reraising me preflop with AK.

The main question is how likely is QJs/KQc/KJc in his range (pretty often i was thinking) and how often does he checkraise there as a bluff.

Board: Ah 9c Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 72.463% 71.88% 00.58% 9251 75.00 { TT-99, AQs, KcQc, KcJc, QJs }
Hand 1: 27.537% 26.95% 00.58% 3469 75.00 { AdJh }

Looks pretty standard so far, i don't think he has AT/A9 here preflop that often (maaaybe ATs) so now it depends how often he checkraise bluffs here

And for anyone who dislikes my line, i assume you are checking behind the flop and not bet/folding?

[KneeCo]

[ QUOTE ]
Standard. If you had the J of clubs I think I'd highly consider mucking this because it takes the KQ clubs/KJ clubs/QJ clubs out of his semibluffing range. Given the past history I can't see folding this.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he can't have QJ/87 w/o clubs sometimes than we aren't getting the price we need to call (unless he has complete air a fair % of the time), which I don't see him having very often against an UTG player on an Ace high flop.

In other words, taking the Jc hands out of his semi-bluff range shouldn't matter much since if they are the only hands there, it's a fold and if non-FD SD hands are there it's a call regardless of whether we have the Jc or not.

Overall, without a read on bakes or knowledge of your image to him, I think it's a fold.

[4CardStraight]

Yes. vs this opponent and this board I check behind, cause im WA/WB and in a massive pot control situation, against a tricky opponent who could well check raise with air (though I think its very unlikely) If SB is a retard that will play trash from the SB, yeah I might bet this board.. but against someone that ive seen hand histories and watched them fold relatively good aces just because they had bad position or faced a raise, I dont like the smell of this board at all with AJ. I know im not ahead of a pair of aces, and i know he is drawing super thin if he has JJ-KK, so the cost of giving him a free card isnt much, if he was ahead, he remains ahead, if he was behind, he remains behind, and if he was drawing, at least i get to see if a club hits. Im not really worried about the clubs all that much, its more that im likely dominated. I really dont think bakes smooth called hero FROM THE SB, for a tenth of his stack, with something like a suited connector. He knows he doesnt have implied odds to mine a flush, he knows hes in bad position to flop a pair and extract, and he knows his cards arent good against my range for showdown quality... so whatever...

[Bakes]

lol good read 4card.

[TwistedEcho]

OH fk, i thought bakes coldcalled from the bigblind. Guess that does change his range a bit.

[tomek322]

OT: Bakes that is the funniest avatar. What does the audio sound like?

[TwistedEcho]

[ QUOTE ]
OT: Bakes that is the funniest avatar. What does the audio sound like?

[/ QUOTE ]

crazy frog