NFL Week 11

[rjp]

YTD: 59-51-3 (+1.62 units; ROI: 1.47%)

Oakland Raiders +9.5 (-110)

A major reason the Chiefs struggled last week against Miami is because of injuries to their offensive line. It’s going to take some time for Green to get into a rythm, but he’s probably the Chiefs best option at QB. It’s easy to look good with LJ in the backfield, but the injuries to the offensive line will make it tough for a lot of good RBs.

Oakland might go with Brooks in this game, and although he’s coming back from an injury it’s tough to see Oakland playing any worse at QB. Kansas City should still be favored to win this game, of course, but this is too many points to lay given the situation.

Tennessee Titans +13 (-103)

Philadelphia finally took care of business against a terrible Redskins team, but they shouldn’t be favored to blow any team out. The Eagles might blow the Titans out, but the Titans continue to be undervalued and should cover this number more often than not.

Atlanta Falcons +180
Atlanta Falcons / Baltimore Ravens OVER 41 (+100)

Injuries on defense for both teams will be the story of this game. The Ravens, without their #1 and #2 MLBs, allowed the Titans to have their way with them on the ground. Atlanta is a better rushing team, and they should find plenty of success against the Ravens who will again be missing their best MLBs.

The Falcons have lost two straight, and they should be more motivated to win this game. From a psychological standpoint this is a tough game for Baltimore, as they got a big win in an emotional game for McNair last week, and they get to face their division foe, Pittsburgh, next week. Atlanta faces division foe New Orleans next week, but given their situation there is little chance they overlook the Ravens. As such, Atlanta has a much better chance at winning this game than the line would indicate.

Carolina Panthers -270

The Rams have lost four straight, and they’ll now be without Pace. Carolina has a strong defensive line, and the Rams will have a tough go of it from an offensive standpoint. There is value with laying the 6.5 points with the Panthers, but I figure there to be more value with taking them to win at -270.

Houston Texans -2.5 (-110)
Buffalo Bills / Houston Texans UNDER 36 (-105)

Winning two straight games isn’t something the Texans do, but the odds are in their favor against the Bills. The Texans have been playing well as of late, and they should continue to find success against a Bills team that has an injury at the offensive line, a unit that has struggled much of the season. Odds are this game is a low scoring defensive battle, so if you’re looking for fireworks it’s best you watch another game.

[MacGuyV]

I kinda like the Houston pick. My problem with the Oakland pick is that the Chiefs could play like pooh and still cover with 1 special teams play or takeaway because the Raiders offense is that bad.

[rjp]

Dallas Cowboys +2.5 (-110)

On a neutral field the Colts are a better team than the Cowboys. Given injuries and home field advantage, however, and the Cowboys should be small favorites to win this game. This is a bet I was not going to make unless I could get the Cowboys at a decent money line price (wich I can’t), or I get at least 2.5 points, which I have finally been able to get.

[rush66]

Where are you getting that line? I see +1. Did u buy to 2.5?

[rjp]

Bodog

[MacGuyV]

So I guess I'm 0-2 in this thread (though I wasn't crazy about either game). Anyway I don't see much discrepancy in home/away play for either the Colts or Cowboys so I think homefield is very minimal; so I like the Colts.

[iggymcfly]

The Colts are the only team I'm betting today. Took them at +1 yesterday. The way I see it, the Colts have played really well on the road this year, and the players know they've been an underdog all week, and will take the game seriously, just a little bit pissed off. When Indy finally loses, it will be because a bad team catches them napping, not because a good team outplays them.

[canada_dry]

[ QUOTE ]
The Colts are the only team I'm betting today. Took them at +1 yesterday.

[/ QUOTE ]

Scoreless in second. But I would have bet on the COLTS as well, esp. +1. Bet them until they lose...

[rjp]

New York Giants / Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 38 (-107)

Recent play by these teams suggests there is value with this bet, but by digging deeper there also figures to be motivation to back up what the numbers show.

Both QBs in this game combined for 6 interceptions last week (Manning 2 and Garrard 4). I figure there is a very good chance both teams (more so Jacksonville) put their team’s fate in the hands of the running backs, and this type of game plan typically leads to lower point totals.

The Giants aren’t as bad as the 38 points the Bears posted last week, and they should be motivated to perform better. The Jaguars have a very strong defense, too, but they shouldn’t need any extra motivation tonight.

More often than not this game figures to stay UNDER the total of 38 providing a positive expectation over the long haul.