bubble situation, fold = guaranteed money, do I call?

[Marnixvdb]

This is the Stars $55R. I am in for $205, bubble is $392, 1st is $9810. We are playing the top19 of the tourney, top18 pays so the play is hand for hand. On another table i see someone busting, who is slightly bigger than me. So a fold is guaranteed money. I don't like chichening into the money, but have never been in the situation where a fold was 100% guaranteed money. So.... is this a clear fold, an easy push or is it close?

note: villain is raising very liberally here.
edited to add: avg was app. 50k

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3000 (7 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Button (t14990)
SB (t60749)
Hero (t20390)
UTG (t51018)
MP1 (t53957)
MP2 (t16970)
CO (t152047)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t6000</font>

[Art Vandelay]

I push simply because the SB's range is so wide and I am a good favorite versus that range.

BUT, if there ever were a time to fold into the money, this would be it I would guess.

[Marwan]

very easy push, I'm probably not folding that hand to any raise from any position with your stack unless I had a clear reason to fold.

[bestcellar]

push.

[xdeucesx]

Yeah I would have a very hard time folding or calling with this hand....

Push!! =D

[nath]

Whether or not you push or fold depends on whether or not you would rather win or sneak into the money.
Push every time, this is an obvious steal and you have a great hand.

[CybrPunk]

You can't possibly just call for 1/3 of your stack and then fold on a missed flop. Just put the chips in the middle against an aggressive raiser out of the SB. Your read says this is a very easy push and it's not close. You still need to accumulate chips and you can't possibly pass up an opportunity to take down this pot or, possibly, double thru the player out of the SB.

Ok so you might bust too. Whatever. Play for first.

[Marnixvdb]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't possibly just call for 1/3 of your stack and then fold on a missed flop. Just put the chips in the middle against an aggressive raiser out of the SB. Your read says this is a very easy push and it's not close. You still need to accumulate chips and you can't possibly pass up an opportunity to take down this pot or, possibly, double thru the player out of the SB.

Ok so you might bust too. Whatever. Play for first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obv I wasnt calling his raise, it's push or fold.

I play for first but that does not take away that I need to consider how certain actions have an impact on my overall EV. From SNG theory I know that there are situations in tournament poker where you pass up +chip EV edges to gain extra monetary EV, through reducing your risking of busting just before an increase in payout.

Assuming that the SB has any2 and will never fold to my push, I would like to have an idea of my expectation for when I fold ($392+expected EV of my stack) and my expectation for when I go allin vs SB (34% of the time $0, and 66% of the time $392+expected EV of my stack).

I didnt have a gut feeling for how difference the $392 guaranteed would make but you all seem to say it is an easy push. I know ICM is used in SNGs to calculate the different scenarios. Do you guys use it for multis as well and is there an application avalailable to do the calculations?

Marnix