Chinese Poker Hand at The Wynn

[MarkGritter]

I think this one is fairly close between two options, but the straight in back is not one of them. I ran these cards against strategies from my experiment (100K opponent hand possibilities.)

Against 1282 random hands (strategy A)

TJQKA 86532 AQ6 (-0.563)
QQJ66 T8532 AAK (-0.151)
AAJT6 86532 QQK (-0.147)

Against 1330 random hands (strategy B)

JTQKA 86532 AQ6 (-0.389)
AAJT6 86532 QQK (-0.069)
66JQQ T8532 AAK (-0.045)

[karpov]

Very nice Mark. So now can you run any hand against those random hands? I saw this very interesting hand at the Bellagio two days ago:
9999 34567 QQAK

There are two ways to play this hand:

A: 99997 K6543 QQA
B: 999QQ 96543 AK7

Can you simulate this one and see which one is stronger? The guy wasn't happy with the result and he is one of the best players around.

[MarkGritter]

[ QUOTE ]
Very nice Mark. So now can you run any hand against those random hands? I saw this very interesting hand at the Bellagio two days ago:
9999 34567 QQAK

There are two ways to play this hand:

A: 99997 K6543 QQA
B: 999QQ 96543 AK7

Can you simulate this one and see which one is stronger? The guy wasn't happy with the result and he is one of the best players around.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks to me like quads in front is much better.

(Note that there is still quite some divergence in how much the two hand sets estimate that this hand is worth. But both say that 999QQ 96543 AK7 is a loser. I think the 9 in middle doesn't give you enough strength to make up for breaking quads and going with ace-high in front.)

Strategy "A" (1296 relevant hands out of 100K)

EV arrangement
-0.103395 9c9d9hQdQh 3c4d5s6h9s 7cKcAs
-0.095679 9c9d9h9sQd 3c4d5s6hQh 7cKcAs
0.138889 7c9c9d9h9s 3c4d5s6hQd QhKcAs
0.16358 9c9d9h9sAs 3c4d5s6h7c QdQhKc
0.202932 9c9d9h9sKc 3c4d5s6h7c QdQhAs
0.785494 9c9d9h9sAs 3c4d5s6hKc 7cQdQh
0.88966 7c9c9d9h9s 3c4d5s6hKc QdQhAs

Strategy "B" (1278 hands)

EV arrangement
-0.122066 9c9d9hQdQh 3c4d5s6h9s 7cKcAs
0.043036 7c9c9d9h9s 3c4d5s6hQd QhKcAs
0.111111 9c9d9h9sAs 3c4d5s6h7c QdQhKc
0.15493 9c9d9h9sKc 3c4d5s6h7c QdQhAs
0.689358 9c9d9h9sAs 3c4d5s6hKc 7cQdQh
0.79108 7c9c9d9h9s 3c4d5s6hKc QdQhAs

[karpov]

Nice Mark, He played quads and won 2 points instead of scooping with full+9+AK7, so he thought it was a mistake the way he played but as you showed, it was only bad luck and quads is the correct play.