StudHi Split As - Page 2

rory · #11 01-25-2007, 04:15 PM

Raise 5th. He probably doesn't have 3 kings and you want to make sure you get it heads up.

rory · #12 01-25-2007, 04:15 PM

Raise fifth even if you don't have aces up too.

cgrohman · #13 01-25-2007, 04:16 PM

A guy pairs his doorcard and its your default play to raise? This is spewage. With a read that this player would never (or at least not usually) limp with KK, then raising is the correct play, but I would never use it as a default.

rory · #14 01-25-2007, 04:24 PM

If you aren't going to fold you should raise. If he has 3 kings and he 3-bets then oh well thats life, you can fold then or call down or whatever and you wasted two extra bets. No disaster. If you call and fail to raise and the third guy catches and beats you because you didn't raise then that is a disaster since you wind up losing two bets anyway and also lose a pot you could have won if you had sacked up and raised.

The reason why he should raise here is his opponent has done nothing to indicate he has a K in the hole so far. At no point in the hand has he raised or done anything until he paired his K. Therefore I would conclude he most likely does not have a K in the hole. Also he has to knock out the third player. If there was no third player then raising is less attractive since now the raise is purely for value and not also to get it heads up.

trickyAAA · #15 01-25-2007, 05:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
"I am leaning towards a call on fifth being correct here. If we assume that the villian started out with at least a pair, then half the time it a pair of K's and half the time a hidden pair in the hole."

ummm WHY?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure what you are asking. If you are asking why assume that he started out with a pair, the reason I make that assumption is because, for the sake of the anlaysis, it considers the worst likely case. If that is not what you are asking, please let me know - I am happy to explain my thinking.

I am not saying this is definitely what he has, I am just saying - if you make that assumption, then this analysis follows. You certainly have to consider that he has a pair when evaluating his his hand right?

cgrohman · #16 01-25-2007, 05:43 PM

You seem to be saying that 50% of the time he has a pocket pair and 50% of the time he has split kings. I think your math is off- what makes you assign these probabilities.

trickyAAA · #17 01-25-2007, 05:51 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You seem to be saying that 50% of the time he has a pocket pair and 50% of the time he has split kings. I think your math is off- what makes you assign these probabilities.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see what you are asking. I thought twice before typing this because I figured I would get questioned on it - so kudos to you for being vigiliant.

What I meant was, if you make the assumption that he has a pair (for the sake of the analysis), you can further make a rough assumption that 50% of the time it will be kings. I don't have any rigorous math behind this number, just a gut feel that if he didn't raise third, and he does have a pair, there is about a 50% chance that it is kings.

If you have a better way of looking at this situation, I would really like an explanation, as I am not totally happy with that kind of assumption.

It would also be helpful to be able to assign some probablilty as to whether he has a pair at all, and then use a conditional probability to determine the likelyhood of kings.

SplawnDarts · #18 01-25-2007, 07:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I am leaning towards a call on fifth being correct here. If we assume that the villian started out with at least a pair, then half the time it a pair of K's and half the time a hidden pair in the hole.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless I'm missing something, if you deal out 3 cards, two paired, 1 face up the pair will be split 2/3 of the time and buried 1/3. I suppose it's slightly more complicated because your range is sometimes larger when buried and split kings ought to raise into only 1 door overcard, but isn't 1/2 optimistic here?

In any case, I like the call. Sometimes you snap a pure paired-door-card bluff. Sometimes you hit your 3 outs to the boat. Sometimes you beat a kings up. I don't think the information or value you gain by raising is worth the cost, but I don't think a fold is right either.

Sticky spot. Id sure as hell rather play this one B&M.

Edit: after reading your intervening post, I'm not so sure 1/2 isn't spot on. It just looked like a math mistake at first.