FTP $750K : M=60 : KK OOP facing turn shove rr on scary board

[ASPoker8]

lol @ your reasoning for your turn bet

you give advice to others, sigh

[bobneptune]

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Baltosar: 2/3 of your decisions this hand were incorrect.

The fact that we have to talk about your 4th is a result of your poor play from other spots in the hand.

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What are you referring to ?

Limping big pairs in EP didn't yield results in this hand, but that doesn't mean it's always 100% wrong.

I assume you're not referring to the flop. I likely have the best hand.........

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hello balto,

i think this is where your analysis runs aground. you are very likely a 2-1 dog on this flop 6 ways.

i mucked around with poker stove giving you kk and the bb as random with the 4 other limpers as any pair, any 2 b'way, sc's 54+, 1 gappers 75s+, 2 gappers T7s+ and all Axs. that's about 24.6% of hands.

once you limp with every succeeding player, their odds to come in the pot get better and better.

in this 6 way pot, KK is no better than 35% to win this hand on this flop. there are just so many players that at least one of them will run into a flop here.

which is , of course, why one endeavors to play big pairs heads up, not 6 ways.

if you are going to play this hand by limping utg, you must have a plan ahead of time to hit the eject button at some point if it isn't raised pf. there is no way to put the caller of your flop bet on any real range. but you do know many of his possible hands that you were ahead of on the flop, have you almost drawing dead after the turn.

i just don't see the point in getting broke with one pair when 6 people see a flop in an unraised pot.

[drzen]

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The psychology of this thread is more interesting than the hand. Balto posts a hand that he had to have known would engender some hostility, given how people feel about his other posts. Then he gets the hostility in spades. If anybody read this thread in isolation, they would think that you guys are a bunch of [censored].

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I've never read anything from baltostar or most of the others here, and that's exactly what I'm thinking.

baltostar is now on my must-read list. (He may be wrong. I dunno, not good enough to tell. But damn there's some thinking material in his posts.)

edit: and some of that thinking material undoubtedly comes from others trying to show he's wrong, so long live provocateurs.

[PrayingMantis]

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The psychology of this thread is more interesting than the hand. Balto posts a hand that he had to have known would engender some hostility, given how people feel about his other posts. Then he gets the hostility in spades. If anybody read this thread in isolation, they would think that you guys are a bunch of [censored].

[/ QUOTE ]

I've never read anything from baltostar or most of the others here, and that's exactly what I'm thinking.

baltostar is now on my must-read list. (He may be wrong. I dunno, not good enough to tell. . But damn there's some thinking material in his posts.)



[/ QUOTE ]

That's the problem with blatostar's posts. He is wrong, and most of his reasoning is really off and backward. Players who are not good might be impressed with his "deep analysis", which is dangerous and bad for them obviously. I agree however that any discussion is good, and him being a provocateur sometimes helps in creating interesting discussions.

As to the hand - it's the 3rd time that balto posts a hand in which he open limps utg (with 99, QJs if I remember correctly, and now KK). In short - most of the hands he posts are utg limps at full table. This is the worst of them. He doesn't mention any indication for this table being particularly loose-aggressive PF, or willing to stack-off with ridiculous hands post-flop (on the contrary - he mentions the over-tightness of this tournament in its early stages). His reasons for limping (8% mix-up or whatever) are over the top irrelevant here, and borderline joke. I won't get into other parts of his thinking, others have done that.

He is obviously a provocateur who loves to listen to himself, judging from the hands he posts and his theoretic posts. I am also 100% certain that he is a weak poker player. This is all fine and great, he has any right to post, I only feel it is important to warn "not good enough" players about his material, and make them be much more critical about it.

(BTW sometimes people naturally feel sympathy for the "underdog", the "deep thinking" poster who is constantly being "attacked". But in this case we are talking about a poster who is being "attacked" for some very good reasons (being simply flat out wrong, time and again), and he obviously enjoys it too.)

[baltostar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Baltosar: 2/3 of your decisions this hand were incorrect.

The fact that we have to talk about your 4th is a result of your poor play from other spots in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you referring to ?

Limping big pairs in EP didn't yield results in this hand, but that doesn't mean it's always 100% wrong.

I assume you're not referring to the flop. I likely have the best hand.........

[/ QUOTE ]


hello balto,

i think this is where your analysis runs aground. you are very likely a 2-1 dog on this flop 6 ways.

i mucked around with poker stove giving you kk and the bb as random with the 4 other limpers as any pair, any 2 b'way, sc's 54+, 1 gappers 75s+, 2 gappers T7s+ and all Axs. that's about 24.6% of hands.

once you limp with every succeeding player, their odds to come in the pot get better and better.

in this 6 way pot, KK is no better than 35% to win this hand on this flop. there are just so many players that at least one of them will run into a flop here.

which is , of course, why one endeavors to play big pairs heads up, not 6 ways.

if you are going to play this hand by limping utg, you must have a plan ahead of time to hit the eject button at some point if it isn't raised pf. there is no way to put the caller of your flop bet on any real range. but you do know many of his possible hands that you were ahead of on the flop, have you almost drawing dead after the turn.

i just don't see the point in getting broke with one pair when 6 people see a flop in an unraised pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, I totally agree. That's why I said above that having a bunch of limpers call was not one of my hand goals, and once it happenned I reduced my reasonable expectation for the hand way down: I knew the odds were against me to get much out of the hand.

Interesting stuff you did with stove, b/c that's exactly what I started thinking yesterday. I am thinking you have to check most flops in this scenario. With 5 opponents, you could easily see one of them lead-out and get raised, which allows you to bail.

But none of the above is why I posted the hand. I was just interested in what people thought about the ratio of the chance the turn shove is a semi-bluff to chance it's a panicky over-value-bet.

[kurtkatt]

so really early without reads u want thoughts on how likely anyone is to bluff u big. thats not really intresting since its really hard (impossible?) to do. i´d say that the discussion as to not get to this situation like this is far more valuable. Anyhow as for your question, at least db your villain so we know something about him??

[baltostar]

OPR says 46 tournies, ITM once 11/266, ranked 184,065 of 185,959 on FTP, 647,650 of 654,003 overall.

[betgo]

I am not sure I like the weak turn bet. However, I would call the push. The turn bet seems strange on the connected board, and could provoke a push from a weaker hand. I think villain rarely has a set due to the overbet push and the limp behind preflop. Villain probably has two pair or a pair plus a draw, but he could have less.

You have 8 outs against two pair. Even with the push, you are getting decent pot odds. So I would call and gamble.

As I indicated, there may be questionable plays in this hand, but no terrible ones. I think this is an interesting hand for this forum. I also think this is a good example of why anyone should be allowed to post here. It is good to have hands where everything isn't played the "standard" way.

[Soulman]

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OPR says 46 tournies, ITM once 11/266, ranked 184,065 of 185,959 on FTP, 647,650 of 654,003 overall.

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Out of curiosity, why did you choose these stats to quote instead of ROI and ABI?

[baltostar]

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OPR says 46 tournies, ITM once 11/266, ranked 184,065 of 185,959 on FTP, 647,650 of 654,003 overall.

[/ QUOTE ]
Out of curiosity, why did you choose these stats to quote instead of ROI and ABI?

[/ QUOTE ]

ROI=-88% , ABI=$40

Avg. Finish
Early 37% (10%)
EM 28% (20%)
Mid. 33% (40%)
ML 0% (20%)
Late 2% (10%)

Are you guys basing real-time decisions on OPR ?