Bluff with fours at NL25

[Nichlemn]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($24.45)
Button ($10.25)
SB ($16.05)
Hero ($32.15)
UTG ($23.25)
UTG+1 ($37.45)
MP1 ($13.85)
MP2 ($28.05)
MP3 ($35.95)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to $1.25</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls $1.15, Hero calls $1.

Flop: ($3.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets $3</font>, SB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, MP3 calls $5.

Turn: ($19.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $22.90 and is all-in.</font>


Villain seems to be component for a NL25 player. He tanks for a considerable period of time before calling the flop, hence me thinking he'd fold to a shove on the turn (in retrospect the flop raise was probably too small, and probably stupid to begin with).

Is this too reckless? It seems unlikely Villain would put me on an 8, maybe 87s or 98s, perhaps QQ or 88 could be scary possibilities. But I'm more thinking that Villain could have something less than AQ: if the Villain had that or above I think I'd get called or raised much faster. 99-JJ maybe? KQ folding to a shove? AK hanging around for some reason?

[xxrod17xx]

This is like almost always bad at this limit I would say. He is not folding a Q or better it looks like. Dont take his actions into consideration without considering what his possible holdings could be and what he may do with them. First check if hes multi-tabling before you take the laong tanks into consideration also. The flop raise isnt terrible because you went with a read, but when you get called...hes prolly calling your shove here.

[Nichlemn]

I'm wondering if I'm too aggressive lately. Whenever someone check-calls on the flop or shows weakness like tanking here, I can't resist firing a second barrel, even with a scary board (in fact especially with a scary board, hoping they'd put me on something of it).

[Chargers In 07]

If you never bluffed (besides c-betting) at the $25 you'll be fine.

[Warren Harding]

If you actually had trip 8s on a dry board would you shove the turn or get AI with two smaller bets? Probably the latter, which is why this will not work well enough against a competent player to be +EV. Against a bad player just wire him the $20, punch yourself in the nuts to make things easier.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but i think the tanking and calling the CR means he's more likely to see the hand through. Did he show TT or AQ?

[MrHorace]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm wondering if I'm too aggressive lately. Whenever someone check-calls on the flop or shows weakness like tanking here, I can't resist firing a second barrel, even with a scary board (in fact especially with a scary board, hoping they'd put me on something of it).

[/ QUOTE ]
LMAO! This is one of my BIGGEST leaks, and to be honest I am having a hell of a time plugging it. I will, but it's not easy for me. Now, with 4's, etc. it's no problem, but my issue is with TT+. I just can't seem to just ck/fold when the board is scary. BUT, that is the +EV thing to do. Like you, I think, hey, I'll make the opponent think I have a high-ace, but as stated you aren't going to bluff people off at the low limits.
So, don't try. But I wish both of us luck in overcoming this horrific flaw in our game/mind.

[Nichlemn]

[ QUOTE ]
Correct me if I'm wrong, but i think the tanking and calling the CR means he's more likely to see the hand through. Did he show TT or AQ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Results in white:
<font color="white">He tanks for almost the whole time bank, finally calls... and shows KK. I that actually makes my decision considerably more correct against this player - if he was seriously considering folding KK, surely he'd fold KQ and below. Then again, it makes it less likely that he called with 99-JJ on the flop.</font>

[Lansingg]

I think at 25NL this is a bad move.