Razz begginings - some basic hands

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I thought I might have a lot of fold equity along with my still live but not great draw given that I'm representing a made 9 and he's only drawing to one. You really think he's drawing to a nine low if I catch a 3/4/5 on 6th? He's probably drawing better than that of course, but surely he'd have to fold a nine draw. All that said, I haven't had much success trying to fold people on later streets at this level anyway.

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Fold??!!? What is this "fold" you speak of? How can I abandon my children when I have put the in zee pot??! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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First and fourth hand you need to make it 2 bets on third.

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First hand, yeah...but the fourth isn't close to a reraise, IMO. Look at the dead cards.

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Great point, and an important reminder for the beginners out there. This ain't HE, dead cards make a difference. I certainly don't like having all of those 4, 6, and 8 cards dead, but that should determine whether or not you even play the hand, not whether you raise. If the villain is conservative and not likely to be stealing, then dump it on 3rd st. If you read him for a steal (and most players will in that spot), then you have to raise since you're still a favorite over a steal and you have to deny the bring-in proper odds to call with a 98x or better.

3-way pot with bring-in

Once you're in this pot and others have folded, you have to remember the upcards they mucked. It makes a huge difference in this case, since the villain caught specifically a 7 and 5. Of course he's going to bet his better board no matter what, but it's pretty likely he paired up since only one of each are dead. I don't love your rough 9 here, but unless the villain hits a scary card on 6th st you have the equity to call him down to showdown and that's exactly what you should do.

5th st equity

If the villain had hit a 3, 6, or 8 on 4th and 5th sts, now the mucked cards should be telling you to muck too. It's much more likely you're drawing deadish and even if he paired once he has far more outs to catch to run you down.

5th st trouble

p.s. TT -- thanks for the props [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[CarlosChadha]

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I thought I might have a lot of fold equity along with my still live but not great draw given that I'm representing a made 9 and he's only drawing to one. You really think he's drawing to a nine low if I catch a 3/4/5 on 6th? He's probably drawing better than that of course, but surely he'd have to fold a nine draw. All that said, I haven't had much success trying to fold people on later streets at this level anyway.

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Fold??!!? What is this "fold" you speak of? How can I abandon my children when I have put the in zee pot??! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

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Actually, even bad players will probably fold on 6th if the hero catches good and villain catches a card 9 or over because they will fear they are drawing dead. You say that, "Even if you catch good on 6th, he will draw for his 9 low, and will actually be correct to do so." This is wrong, the opponent only has only an 8 to 1 (ProPokerTools) chance of winning with his smooth 9 draw, while the pot is only offering 6 to 1.

Besides, on 5th the hero has 45% equity in the pot, so he is only losing a tiny fraction of a bet in expectation, which he can more than gain back if the opponent folds on 6th when the hero catches an A, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 8.


Carlos

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Actually, even bad players will probably fold on 6th if the hero catches good and villain catches a card 9 or over because they will fear they are drawing dead. You say that, "Even if you catch good on 6th, he will draw for his 9 low, and will actually be correct to do so." This is wrong, the opponent only has only an 8 to 1 (ProPokerTools) chance of winning with his smooth 9 draw, while the pot is only offering 6 to 1.

Besides, on 5th the hero has 45% equity in the pot, so he is only losing a tiny fraction of a bet in expectation, which he can more than gain back if the opponent folds on 6th when the hero catches an A, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 8.


Carlos

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I agree rare players will fold if the cards break bad for them on 6th... maybe more often at 0.25/0.50 than I remember. Most villains will read your smooth call on 3rd st as weakness and you won't be able to convince them otherwise very easily, thus giving up most of your fold equity. Most players also count on you to have paired up once if you hit babies and would still draw to a smooth 9. In reality, the villain would be getting 4:1 odds on 6th st to chase your 9732A, and better than that if you didn't catch a perfect 3!

Carlos catches a 3

p.s. you're a 60/40 dog on 5th st., not the time to be bloating the pot.

5th st equity

[CarlosChadha]

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Actually, even bad players will probably fold on 6th if the hero catches good and villain catches a card 9 or over because they will fear they are drawing dead. You say that, "Even if you catch good on 6th, he will draw for his 9 low, and will actually be correct to do so." This is wrong, the opponent only has only an 8 to 1 (ProPokerTools) chance of winning with his smooth 9 draw, while the pot is only offering 6 to 1.

Besides, on 5th the hero has 45% equity in the pot, so he is only losing a tiny fraction of a bet in expectation, which he can more than gain back if the opponent folds on 6th when the hero catches an A, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 8.


Carlos

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I agree rare players will fold if the cards break bad for them on 6th... maybe more often at 0.25/0.50 than I remember. Most villains will read your smooth call on 3rd st as weakness and you won't be able to convince them otherwise very easily, thus giving up most of your fold equity. Most players also count on you to have paired up once if you hit babies and would still draw to a smooth 9. In reality, the villain would be getting 4:1 odds on 6th st to chase your 9732A, and better than that if you didn't catch a perfect 3!

Carlos catches a 3

p.s. you're a 60/40 dog on 5th st., not the time to be bloating the pot.

5th st equity

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You say that by not reraising on 3rd your opponent will think you are "weak". What exactly do you mean by "weak"? Do you think they will put you on having a ten or worse in the hole? Usually, calling a raise shows some strength, NOT weakness. When someone calls your raises with a 7 up, don't you assume that they at least have an 8x7 (or 3 to a 7 if they are a tight player)?

The opponents may hope that you have paired on 6th, but they cannot know for sure, especially when you have been betting all the way. In fact, checking 5th actually clues them into the fact that you probably DID pair, whereas just betting keeps them in the dark!

The 60/40 scenario on 5th is the WORST case (when the villain has exactly A2 in the hole, making all his cards very live). The more correct simulation to use is the one that I gave where you assume that the opponent started with any 3 card 8.

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You say that by not reraising on 3rd your opponent will think you are "weak". What exactly do you mean by "weak"? Do you think they will put you on having a ten or worse in the hole?

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In this case, "weak" would be a rough 8 or 9, or a baby and high card in the hole.

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The 60/40 scenario on 5th is the WORST case (when the villain has exactly A2 in the hole, making all his cards very live). The more correct simulation to use is the one that I gave where you assume that the opponent started with any 3 card 8.

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You're right, my bad. I merely copied and edited your Sim giving the villain A2 in the hole. You have to give him some credit to call 4th when he hits a K even if he thinks your hand is weak. You're still betting from behind when a semibluff is not going to get him to fold on this street, very rarely on the next street, and ties you to a hand where you're DRAWING at a rough 9. If you can find a hand history or two that shows you still have fold equity in this kind of spot, I'd be happy to take a look at them.

[CarlosChadha]

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You say that by not reraising on 3rd your opponent will think you are "weak". What exactly do you mean by "weak"? Do you think they will put you on having a ten or worse in the hole?

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In this case, "weak" would be a rough 8 or 9, or a baby and high card in the hole.

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The 60/40 scenario on 5th is the WORST case (when the villain has exactly A2 in the hole, making all his cards very live). The more correct simulation to use is the one that I gave where you assume that the opponent started with any 3 card 8.

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You're right, my bad. I merely copied and edited your Sim giving the villain A2 in the hole. You have to give him some credit to call 4th when he hits a K even if he thinks your hand is weak. You're still betting from behind when a semibluff is not going to get him to fold on this street, very rarely on the next street, and ties you to a hand where you're DRAWING at a rough 9. If you can find a hand history or two that shows you still have fold equity in this kind of spot, I'd be happy to take a look at them.

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In your experience, when people just smooth call a possible steal, are they more often calling with a two card hand or just playing a three card hand (3 cards<9) passively? I think that the average low limit player is unaware that they should be automatically reraising with any 3 card 8 vs. a possible steal (for instance that OP's play shows that he was unaware of this). I think it is reasonable to put someone on a rough 7, 8 or smooth 9 if they don't reraise, but it seems unlikely that they are calling with just 2 babies and a bad card.

You have a good point that betting on 5th kind of ties you onto the hand on 6th. However, even with betting 5th, it would still be correct for the hero to fold 6th if his opponent catches good and he catches bad, right? Only if the hero catches an 8, giving a 987, do I think he would be forced to call instead of folding because the the extra 2 bets in the pot.

Basically, you don't think there is much fold equity on 6th, whereas I do. We can't really resolve that disagreement, because it is really read based. But, do you agree that based on the probable distribution of hands for the hero (from the villain's point of view) that it would be correct to fold a draw to a smooth 9 facing 4 two a 97 on board, in a 6 BB pot?

Carlos

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In your experience, when people just smooth call a possible steal, are they more often calling with a two card hand or just playing a three card hand (3 cards<9) passively? I think that the average low limit player is unaware that they should be automatically reraising with any 3 card 8 vs. a possible steal (for instance that OP's play shows that he was unaware of this). I think it is reasonable to put someone on a rough 7, 8 or smooth 9 if they don't reraise, but it seems unlikely that they are calling with just 2 babies and a bad card.

You have a good point that betting on 5th kind of ties you onto the hand on 6th. However, even with betting 5th, it would still be correct for the hero to fold 6th if his opponent catches good and he catches bad, right? Only if the hero catches an 8, giving a 987, do I think he would be forced to call instead of folding because the the extra 2 bets in the pot.

Basically, you don't think there is much fold equity on 6th, whereas I do. We can't really resolve that disagreement, because it is really read based. But, do you agree that based on the probable distribution of hands for the hero (from the villain's point of view) that it would be correct to fold a draw to a smooth 9 facing 4 two a 97 on board, in a 6 BB pot?

Carlos

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You've given this a lot of thought, and I'm glad to see that. You're right that a lot of our disagreement stems from reads of player's hands and tendencies, which is something we have to guess at just reading a posted HH. We just have to go with our read of an "average" player for the villain, and likewise assume he reads us for an "average" player as well. The average razz player online is loose compared to the textbook "3-card 8 or better" starting requirements, and many of them will call a complete from a LP player, or even a MP player, very light with hands such as (j5)4, etc. If the villain thinks that's at least a possibility for our hand, most villains will not fold 6th in this example no matter what we catch. Maybe they are typically not as tough to push off a pot at the lower limits, I'll have to defer to your experience there Carlos.

As far as pot odds goes, if the hero bets 5th and is called, villain could have at worst (8x) in the hole, but probably better. So if the villain catches a 6 or better on 6th vs. our blank, we just have to give it up. If villain only catches a 7 or 8, then we'd need about 5:1 odds to call if we brick off. So if we bet 5th, we're priced in, but if it goes c/c we can lay it down profitably. If the cards break the other way, and we are showing 7925 or something, then the correct play for the villain is to lay down a smooth 9 draw in a 6BB pot, I agree. But you don't make a lot of money assuming that villains will always play correctly.