Meh spot

[woodguy]

Stars $150

Not near the $$$, maybe 200ish left, I forget.

BB=400

UTG Big Stack (32K) opens for 1200 UTG

Folded to me in BB w/ 99 and 6200 after posting.

UTG got his stack by playing good hands in the right spots. He was on my right at a different table, never did anything out of line, and he never saw me do anything particularly dumb (for a change)

I have been particularly tight this tourney. UTG has seen me get chips by shoving over a couple of PF raises by an active big stack at a previous table, getting the pots PF, and I have opened in LP about once an orbit. I have not been in a pot that went past the flop since sitting with UTG at this or the other table.

I've gone through a few scenarios on what to do in this spot with these stacks and thought I post to get others' ideas.

If you are going to post, please post actions with reasoning PF and on the flop (if your intention is to see one).

Please don't just post "fold", "call and play poker" or "push" without a reason.

I am interested in seeing others thoughts on their plans with this hand in this spot, I am not interested in someone just telling me to push, fold, or call and play poker.

Regards,
Woodguy

[grafyx]

What kind of range do you put UTG on? Is he the type to raise any pair from UTG with the big stack? Would he open limp pairs smaller than 9s?

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]

What kind of range do you put UTG on? Is he the type to raise any pair from UTG with the big stack? Would he open limp pairs smaller than 9s?

[/ QUOTE ]

I haven't seen anyone open limp for quite a while so his bet could mean a lot of things, but he is UTG and I have not seem him splash around or get out of line up to this time.

I had a range for him, but I am more interested in your range and plan given the description (you have about as much info as me at this point)

Also,

COCKTAILS!!!!!!!!

[scotty M]

Well, this is a tough spot. Just calling isn't an option with your stack.

If he's a solid player he knows that he needs a real hand to raise here, but also knows it's a good spot to steal from.

I can't make the decision without seeing him play more. There are times when I'd lay this down.

With the info at hand, I'd say Push<Fold<Call.

[grafyx]

I don't like pushing preflop because I don't think that you ever get called by a hand that you dominate. It also sounds like you don't think he is going to just be raising on a steal here with a marginal hand, so he probably is calling with most of his range.


Also,

If you had 52s, I'd call and flop the wheel + FD.

[Potowame]

Hey Woodguy,

This is for sure on of those meh situations. I think it was Sossman (wheres he at anyways) that said never push 99 over a (normal) UTG Raiser.

Well anyways, If he is tight I think His UTG is AQo AKS, possible KQs 99-AA. I really don't see alot of tightys raiseing utg with less than that. A few problems with this hand.

1. Your stack size really makes this a trouble hand, because ideally you would like to call here and bet out about 2000-2400 on a flop with J high or under. But, doing so would leave you with a less than desirable chip stack, but still playable, if he comes over you on the flop.

2. He has enough chips that I don't think he will fold to your push. He will still be in excellent shape if he losses and is more than likly ready to gambol alittle with some one of your stack size.

Its one of those icky spots that I think you can justify a fold, but I would probly call and lead. Hoping he is missed his AK AQ hand. I sure that I would feel that I just leaked off to many chips after he pushes over my flop lead also.

[uclabruinz]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like pushing preflop because I don't think that you ever get called by a hand that you dominate. It also sounds like you don't think he is going to just be raising on a steal here with a marginal hand, so he probably is calling with most of his range.


Also,

If you had 52s, I'd call and flop the wheel + FD.

[/ QUOTE ]

AAAAAARRRRRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH H!

[uclabruinz]

Fold.

And I am not giving you a reason because I am not your monkey.

[0evg0]

sorry if this is too brief, but i have no problem with a shove

his range is going to be, at its tightest, 66+/AQ/KQ, with a calling range of 88+/AK, again at its tightest.

with the antes i'm fairly certain this is +EV

[Jiggymike]

I really don't think a good, tight UTG raiser is folding to a push from you at this point with his range + stack so your FE is close to 0 (not quite but I wouldn't rate it higher than 10% including aggressive semi-steal raises on his part). I might be putting him too tight but 88+, AK/AQs seems reasonable, maybe even AJs, so obviously without even pokerstoving it you aren't in great shape. And yet you're looking at a pretty good hand with a stack size that is starting to dwindle...How are you with regards to the average stack? That would probably affect my decision a little bit, because if there were a lot of stacks around my size I might wait and try to attack them, whereas if I was short I think my plan would be stop and go here. Once the flop comes, you will have the FE that you sorely need and you might get him to lay down a better hand on the right flops, not allowing him to see all 5 cards (which is pretty much the principal of the stop and go as far as I understand). This seems to be a good plan of action to me, with folding being my 2nd option. I don't love a push here since I'd like to be able to get him to lay down AK-AQ or TT/JJ after a favorable flop which he will never lay down PF.