6.50 Stars: Calling ranges and ICM models

[cougar62]

I was doing some review this morning, and came across this bubble hand (6.50 Stars turbo)...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB (t5480)
BB (t2635)
Hero (t1280)
Button (t4105)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

At this table a couple raises went uncontested and 3 or 4 hands were folded around since the blinds hit 400. I shoved here, and I don't remember the situation exactly but I'm sure I was thinking the table seemed to tighten up and I didn't want to get into the blinds with only 3BB. SNGWiz gave me an EV of -.48%, using calling ranges of 20,20,and 25 for the BTN, SB, and BB. I'll get to those ranges in a second, but my first question would be, would you take a -EV play like this (let's assume just for a second that the calling ranges are accurate)? I'm figuring I'm even more -EV to get into the blinds with my stack. Wrong?

Now, these calling ranges. Going back through and playing around, I end up with equilibrium calling ranges of 18, 26, and 57 if I'm shoving 27% of the time. I mainly concentrated on balancing myself and the BB and then figured the BTN and SB individually. Is that the correct way to find equilibrium, and if it is, is there a way to set up SNGWiz to be more accurate?

To wrap this up, BB called with 87o, right at the very bottom of his 57% equilibrium range, and of course spiked the 8 to eliminate me. But the point is the button played this right assuming my shoving range would be correct, which it wasn't.

[cougar62]

Nothing? Gee guys at least flame me [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[jesse8888]

I'd have folded this hand and taken my chances with the BB, hoping to get better than 9 high. Perhaps they'll fold around to you [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[React1oN]

definetly muckemsayuhh for me

[Guthrie]

The button probably knew nothing about ICM, calling ranges, pushing ranges, equilibrium, or anything else other than he had a lot more chips than you, so he called.

[Slim Pickens]

1) Making a -$EV push because the next hand in the blinds is more -$EV is really dumb. Instead of you EV in the next two hands looking like 0-0.005, it looks like -0.005-0.004. Which is worse? People really over-estimate this effect with more than about two BBs. If the average low-stakes STT'er never thought about it I think the average result would improve.

2) Whatever way you want to find the 4-player equilibrium point is fine. Some methods will take longer than others. Just remember all the ranges need to be consistent at once. I would think that if you ignore overcalls you can just find each subsequent player's equilibrium with your pushing range and call it good.

3) His call with 87o was nothing but a spite call. No one at that level understands proper pushbotting so just consider that one an anomaly and move on without adjusting you typical opponents' calling ranges.

[cougar62]

Thanks Slim, that helps a lot. Was wondering if there was any time to take a -EV move, but that makes a lot of sense (duh). Appreciate the input.