10k sports bet prop...please help

[limon]

after dominating my NFL fantasy league i was talking trash with one of the members as he paid me off and in his tilted state of mind he proposed the following bet:

10k wager on who can pick more winners against the spread next season. we each pick 3 games a week.

Although ive spent most of my adult life in a casino i have never been a big sports bettor but I have always heard that there are certain bets that are historically better than 50/50 although not good enough to beat the Vig. these bets are:

home dogs
10.5 or better dogs
short week dogs
bi week dogs

is any of this true? are there historical bets better than 50/50? if so i will take his wager in a second because he is a massive blowhard and his picks will be no better than random.

[ImBen]

Since you can't even spell "bye", I would advise you lower the stakes by a few orders of magnitude.

[dankhank]

this should be easy. home dogs are historically a good subset, not sure about the others.

the contest will all depend on what you use for lines. if you use the closing line at an online book then you will have to actually cap the games. but if you use lines from say the sunday morning paper, then the lines they are printing will be from the night before, and you can look at the latest lines before kickoff (or whenever you exchange picks) and just go with the best numbers compared to what the current online market offers.

if you spend a little time respecting the opinion of market leaders like pinnacle for example, you will have an edge over any blowhard.

[Waterproof]

[ QUOTE ]
this should be easy.

[/ QUOTE ]
really? this guy knows nothing, and who knows about the other guy? he's either a degenerate gambler (who might have a decent service) or he's not that bad at picking games...

Also line movement doesn't really dictate who will win. public money moves lines alot...

If you have never picked football before, it seems like a lot of $ (unless you can easily afford it). If you place the bet, you might want to read/study or ride the coat tales of a decent handicapper.

trust me. If it was so easy, we'd all be rich.

[Waterproof]

[ QUOTE ]
home dogs
10.5 or better dogs
short week dogs
bi week dogs


[/ QUOTE ]

3rd road game, division rivals, revenge games, yada yada...

If only it was this easy [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[paperchamp]

Let me make the picks for you and we'll split the money if you win. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Dementia]

Water,

Your avatar is like the best part of this whole godforsaken forum bro.

[Diplomat]

[ QUOTE ]
Since you can't even spell "bye", I would advise you lower the stakes by a few orders of magnitude.

[/ QUOTE ]

You must be joking.

-Diplomat

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Since you can't even spell "bye", I would advise you lower the stakes by a few orders of magnitude.

[/ QUOTE ]

You must be joking.

[/ QUOTE ]


You should ignore him. His posts are almost always short, unconstructive criticism.

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
public money moves lines alot...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure this is true in the NFL.