10k sports bet prop...please help

[Thremp]

limon,

Some faks.

1) Sport betting is different now than it was 10 years ago when some of the historical data is compiled.
2) The NFL is different over the last 10+ years. Free agency and parity make it very tricky to compare to before.
3) Bragging about monies on a gambling forum makes you look foolish. BBV is for that we don't need to see your e-peen.
4) You can probably beat him if he'll take some trendy upset picks. A lot of this is determined by what set of lines you use. If you can find lines that are slightly different than closing prices you can pick 51-52% or more purely based on efficient markets.
5) More than likely you're just flipping a coin for 10k.

[limon]

i wasnt bragging. just stating facts. ive been giving away good advice on this site since there were 3 forums. i dont need some dipshyt clogging up my politley asked question and wasting everybodies time. thanks for you answer, it was more to the level i give and expect to receive in return.

[Thremp]

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i wasnt bragging. just stating facts. ive been giving away good advice on this site since there were 3 forums. i dont need some dipshyt clogging up my politley asked question and wasting everybodies time. thanks for you answer, it was more to the level i give and expect to receive in return.

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I know you post in HSNL and I've seen your strat posts and some of the golf ones. Given what I know about your situation I'd flip him for it. Use lines from ~Wed wherever... Decide on a time you share your picks and they have to go down at that line regardless of changes. Try to make it as close to gametime as possible for picks to go in. Hop on Pinnacle check the difference... Ship it.

[Waterproof]

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public money moves lines alot...

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This is just wrong.

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right. From Sunday morning until kickoff (what the guy said) the public moves the lines.

[Thremp]

Waterproof,

We'll have to agree to disagree. I think there no way in the world that football sharps allow those lines to close errant.

[Waterproof]

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Waterproof,

We'll have to agree to disagree. I think there no way in the world that football sharps allow those lines to close errant.

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I agree we disagree.

There is only so much risk people would put on one play (esp. sharp bettors).

If the line is off, but the public still [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]loves[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] the one side, that side will move.

Even more so when the sharp bettors are split. they're not always on the same side.

[playersare]

if the majority of sharps are already max bet out at a specific book and public money is still coming in, the line may still end up closing against the sharps. the prices at individual sports sites cannot be 100% liquid and efficient just because a line is slightly off consensus. bet limits on individual accounts can and will affect that efficiency.

[Thremp]

Some sharps aren't.

PA,

I was referring more to just Pinny since that issue doesn't really arise.

[Ken_AA]

Back to the OP

Just tell him you'll take the other side of his picks. Chances are he ends up under 50% on the season.

Ken

[TwoNiner]

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Back to the OP

Just tell him you'll take the other side of his picks. Chances are he ends up under 50% on the season.

Ken

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Brilliant. Also, try to make him lay 13 to your 10 or some rediculous [censored] since you are taking the "worst" side on each game.