***Official 2007-2008 MLB Offseason Thread***

[bugstud]

rwperu - some of those young guys can be high leverage bullpen arms for this year and starters in the future. TB can get sick sick good in this deal.

[Vyse]

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Young's ceiling is higher, because his ceiling is best RF in the game

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That's not his ceiling. He has very little chance of becoming this. His more likely ceiling is .300/.350/.550. Something should not be considered a "ceiling" when there's like a 2% chance of it happening. Then anyone would have the ceiling of the best player at their position.

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and that's more valuable than the best SP in the game.

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No.

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Young really isn't all that good. His line last year : .288/.316/.408 and his Minor League numbers aren't that far off. He has little, if any, plate discipline and is very overrated, imo. Both Crawford and Upton are better and the Rays can probably scrap together a decent replacement. Loosing Harris and the other prospects, though, I agree is kinda questionable but overall I don't think this is really bad a move. Garza was pretty good last year and is pretty young. He should compliment Shields/Kazmir nicely and give the rays a pretty good rotation to which they can later add the studs they have developing in the minors when they are ready.

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QFT. Young sucks. Garza is perfect for TB. This is good for the Twins too since they need hitting so badly and have no upside in their farm system, but still, Young's insanely overrated.

[rwperu34]

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rwperu,

I don't know WTF you're talking about with team construction, but I'm pretty sure its bad and wrong.

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Are you telling me if you had two unknown players, you'd rather have them both come out average rather than one a superstar and one a flop?

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I'm pretty sure if you managed a team with the philosophy you espouse you'd spend most of the years below replacement level.

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I think we're on different pages here. I said you should usually take the player with the highest EV and you said that's a bad way to build a team.

I think what you're trying to say is, it's bad to build a team from only high risk/high reward type players. I say that's arguable, so long as you're getting more EV, but that's beside the point. Most of the time, the highest EV is going to be the player with the least risk.

The problem I have with this deal from the Rays POV is, they are actually getting less EV and taking more risk. It's kind of bizarre, but something I would expect from a team that's got a season high of 70 wins over the last ten years.

[Vyse]

rwperu has a basic graps of sabermetrics but is really bad at applying them, and as a result his opinions are often LOL

[bugstud]

espn saying deal done?

[metsandfinsfan]

i wanted the mets to get garza

with the outfielders the rays have, i think its a good trade

[rwperu34]

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rwperu is under the impression that Brignac, Longoria, McGee, Davis, Sonnanstine, Howell, and Niemann all turn into above-average players. The reality is that the Rays will be lucky to get one perennial All-Star out of that group, one or two above average players, and a few contributors. Dewon Brazelton, anyone? Josh Hamilton? I could go on.


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Actually, I'm not under that assumption. How that gets extrapolated from Young has a higher EV than Garza and taking the highest EV is the best way to build a team?

I also wonder how Young gets anointed as a complete risky player with all this downside when Garza is clearly the riskier player? What if Garza is the next Brazelton or Hamilton? The point is, he's more likely to not be valuable than Young is, if for no other reason than because he's a pitcher. I guess you want to say that Bartlett is the least risky player in this deal, but he should be the final piece of the puzzle, not a building block.

On top of that, I forgot all about Niemann! Damn the Rays are deep in young pitching.

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And therein lies the problem; you simply cannot field a garbage team 8/10 years and expect to turn in good revenue. You can say what you want about the free agent market, but you will be hard pressed to sign ANYONE to your team if you just lose all the time; there ARE good deals in the FA market that teams need to buy when the time is right.


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It seems like I'm usually the one defending the spenders! Is this the time for the Rays? Hell no! They just improved their 2008 projected wins from 76 to 78. It's not worth giving up future value for that, and they did, even though it's "riskier".

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All you need to know about this deal is that they unload a redundant player (yes, he is good at what he does, but you cannot trade total nobodies for prospects) and a crappy infielder who hits for average and nothing else for a ready-now plus-plus shortstop and ready-now pitching (forget Rincon, Garza is what is important) to win more in 2008 and have more pieces to a MLB team in 2009 and beyond.


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I think this is where we have the disconnect. Who is going to start in RF and at DH for the Rays in 2008 and 2009? Gomes! He's a DH at best, and not a very good one. Baldelli? Don't forget a ton of his value was tied up in the fact that he was a good fielding speedy CF. If he can't stay healthy in RF, how good of a DH will he be? Dukes? Well, I like the upside, but do you really want to count on this guy?

EV baby! Especially when you are building, which the Rays are, even if it's for 2009.

[rwperu34]

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That's not his ceiling. He has very little chance of becoming this. His more likely ceiling is .300/.350/.550. Something should not be considered a "ceiling" when there's like a 2% chance of it happening. Then anyone would have the ceiling of the best player at their position.


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Question. What translates into major league superstardom? Is it tools?
Is it guys that hold their own at age 21 in MLB?
Is it minor league track record?

Because Delmon has all of this in his favor.

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still, Young's insanely overrated.


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Overrated compared to who? If anything, Young is underrated and Garza is overrated.

[bugstud]

all they need is a catcher and al east ftmfw!

[gehrig]

rwperu34 delmon young was below replacement level in 2007. by like a full win.