Value bet this river? - 55

[StellarWind]

Hero is Button with 55. SB is 50/10 and quite passive postflop. I've seen him get out-of-line trying to steal a pot but he can be *very* timid about value betting/raising.

Hero has been betting HU the whole way and the board is Q64r-8r-6.

5.5 BB in the pot. Bet again or just show it?

[NinaWilliams]

Id check. The 8 is a pretty bad card for you as it hits 78. He could also be going passive with Qx or be going for a c/r with 6x. If I had a read that he pays off lightly with A high or K high then id bet. But without that info I prefer a check.

[kross]

For a value bet to be correct, we need to be good at least 50% of the time when called. I will guess villain will call with any pair, and A-high. So a quick stove:

Board: Qc 6s 4h 8d 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.437% 39.16% 00.28% 58069433 413271.50 { 55 }
Hand 1: 60.563% 60.29% 00.28% 89397389 413273.50 { 22+, A2s+, KQs, K8s, K6s, K4s, Q2s+, J8s, J6s, J4s, T8s, T6s, T4s, 98s, 96s, 94s, 82s+, 76s, 74s, 62s+, 54s, 42s+, A2o+, KQo, K8o, K6o, K4o, Q2o+, J8o, J6o, J4o, T8o, T6o, T4o, 98o, 96o, 94o, 82o+, 76o, 74o, 62o+, 54o, 42o+ }

Says we should check.

If we change the 55 to something that can beat second pair, like 99, then it becomes a clear bet:

Board: Qc 6s 4h 8d 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.898% 59.63% 00.28% 10684639 49820.50 { 99 }
Hand 1: 40.102% 39.83% 00.28% 7137028 49820.50 { 22+, A2s+, KQs, K8s, K6s, K4s, Q2s+, J8s, J6s, J4s, T8s, T6s, T4s, 98s, 96s, 94s, 82s+, 76s, 74s, 62s+, 54s, 42s+, A2o+, KQo, K8o, K6o, K4o, Q2o+, J8o, J6o, J4o, T8o, T6o, T4o, 98o, 96o, 94o, 82o+, 76o, 74o, 62o+, 54o, 42o+ }

Now I know those ranges aren't incredibly realistic, but I think it gives a good feel for the situation.

Am I going about this the right way?

-- Kevin

[Hobbs.]

A couple of questions. What percentage of the time do you think he donks (or c/r's) a Q at some point in the hand? How often will he donk a 6 on the river instead of c/r'ing.

If you assume a reasonable hand range for a guy like this it looks like you're a slight dog on the river if he c/c c/c checks his entire range. If we can narrow down some of his range that is beating you due to him beting at some point in the hand it becomes a clear bet imo.

[Carmine]

I get called down here by Ax/4x everyday and twice on tuesdays. Bet, if raised, easy fold against this player.

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I going about this the right way?

-- Kevin

[/ QUOTE ]


well, your method for solving the problem is good. problem is your handranges don't take into account:
1. the preflop action (even 50 vpip types fold 62o from the sb facing a raise).
2. the fact that villain has yet to raise throughout the entire hand (hard to put him on AA).

[vmacosta]

I vote bet. It's often very difficult to put the fish on a tight enough range to know for sure whether the play is correct in a vacuum, but here it's at worst close. in addition there are plenty of good metagame reasons to bet the river (gotta give action to get it).

[sharpie]

I have been betting here but it seems very thin and I wonder whether this is too thin of a spot. Even if we're ahead when called 55% of the time, we only have to be bluff raised a fraction of the time to lose all value (our bet shows .1BB expectation when we never get bluffraised, when we get bluffraised we lose 6.5BB vs checking behind, so we only need to be bluffraised 1/65 times to lose value).

Given the read it's debatable whether we're even ahead 55% of the time since he might even play a weak queen like this, and also while bluff check/raising the river is rare, this guy seems like the type who could be capable of it, at least a small fraction of the time.

[milesdyson]

i need an 8 with a kicker to bet against someone who fits this description. reminds me of the old days when you bet bet bet A5 on AT842, the guy calls down and pot ships to him

[Carmine]

Sharp the read is "timid about value betting and raising". So where does the concern about being bluff-raised even a small % from this player come from