10-20 QQ vs. UTG limp rr

[flawless_victory]

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hmm, i figured he pretty much always shoved something like AKs or hearts if he got to the flop this way (given read that hero thinks his hand is face up and never KK+). do you think that is unreasonable for a live player?

[/ QUOTE ]y didnt u include 9h2h?

[Kirkrrr]

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once you call pf, the flop is an easy call. you can't consider anything different actually. only thing id think is to fold pf to the l/r, but i generally wouldnt do that either.

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Rob, I disagree with this completely, and in reference I'm going to use one of the best posts on poker I have ever seen, Gigabet's "Almost there with Sucess and Failure" (linked at the end). Poker is a game of incomplete information and he who is the best at analyzing bits and pieces of it as they come in and responding correctly - at the end - wins. So we get limp-raised pre-flop and some warning bells should be going off, but QQ is still the 3rd nuts so okay, not enough info to shove or fold, lets call.

Flop comes x,x,x and he shoves for twice the pot AI. Assuming that he's not limp-raising with JJ- and not doing this too often with naked A,Ko there's simply no way we're ahead here 66%+ of the time since when he's behind he's got 12 outs+ and when we are behind we're drawing virtually dead. And we're usually behind.

If you take another step back and think what your hand looks like to him (given your history) then you'll realize it's easily QQ+ so no, he's not expecting you to fold here very often. So fold. I realize I'm making a lot of assumptions here but, again, given the description in OP of your 3-hour history and the dynamics so far, I think they will be accurate far more often than not.

Kirk

PS. Gigabet's "Almost there with Success and Failure"

[Lefort]

Kirk, stop re-wording my posts and making them sound better.

[BobboFitos]

kirk -

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Flop comes x,x,x and he shoves for twice the pot AI. Assuming that he's not limp-raising with JJ- and not doing this too often with naked A,Ko there's simply no way we're ahead here

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then why did we call pf? if his range is AA-KK, we don't have set odds nor steal equity. Maybe I'm misunderstanding there, btu the pf error is compounded on the flop; however, if you do not believe them before the flop, I would pay off and "not believe them postflop".
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66%+ of the time since when he's behind he's got 12 outs+ and when we are behind we're drawing virtually dead. And we're usually behind.



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Ok, we need what, 40% equity? It's really important to put a range like we're ahead X % and behind Y %, because the truth is even if it's slightly ahead / way behind, we're often pot stuck.
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If you take another step back and think what your hand looks like to him (given your history) then you'll realize it's easily QQ+ so no, he's not expecting you to fold here very often.

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I don't agree, I think the limp raiser thinks the raise/caller has a wider range then that; nowhere did hero say he was mr mcnitty mcnitson.

[Kirkrrr]

Rob, I think you're misunderstanding what I'm trying to say. I'm not saying that he's limp-raising only AA/KK, I'm saying that once he gets called, he's not shoving all those other hands we're beating on the flop b/c it's sorta suicidal, so the bet is for value far more often than not, and the times we're a slight favorite vs a big draw and hold up will not offset the majority of the time we're far, far behind.

Again, it sorta goes back to variance. One lesson that was brought back over and over from trading is that variance is a necessary evil that must be minimized if you want to survive the long run (lots of threads on this subject). Hedge funds have to spend colossal sums of money not to just increase the expectation of greater returns, but to minimize variance in order that they can live long enough to see those returns materialize.

Do you see where I'm going with this? Yes, we can play with the numbers to make the call look very, very marginally +EV or about breakeven, however jacking up variance just to break even is a recipe for disaster, and is the reason a lot of younger superstar pros go broke even faster than they rise. Something to consider.

Kirk

[jfish]

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hmm, i figured he pretty much always shoved something like AKs or hearts if he got to the flop this way (given read that hero thinks his hand is face up and never KK+). do you think that is unreasonable for a live player?

[/ QUOTE ]y didnt u include 9h2h?

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lol ok i see your point.

[jfish]

i guess i was trying to prove a point that even if he is doing this with occasional garbage once in a while, you still dont have much equity vs his range and you should fold.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

jay loves to do ridiculous out of line stuff every once in a while, just plays quiet then makes moves way bigger than he needs to to show because he's bored and kind of weird.

long story short, i'd snap call this based just on my read of jay which i guess you couldn't have had. also, acidknight disagrees and says he's played a lot with Jay: I played with him just about every day during WSOP last year so unless he's changed dramatically (which I doubt) I don't see how you can think this is a fold.

[limon]

i very much feel he wants you to call. i dont like to do what people want. ever think about a pf min rr? fold to all in move on any small flop?

[FoxwoodsFiend]

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i very much feel he wants you to call. i dont like to do what people want.

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i feel he wants you to fold so he can show 67o. so now what? i say call so you can call it a cooler if you're wrong and if you're right you can take credit for a sick read