But Mooooom, I want to call!

[cgrohman]

The Button was going to fold anyway which favors ont raising. You are right about c though.

[cgrohman]

Yea, but aren't I in trouble pre-flop when a limping donkey raises?

[CardSharpCook]

so.... are we not allowed to fold PF here? He's got enough of a range that we can't put him squarely on AK or TT+, but not enough where a lot of his hands include only 3 outs. As I understand it, this is precisely the difference btwn 3betting 99 and 3betting 22. With 22, he def. has two overs, but with 99, a lot of a normal player's range does not have two overs. If that's not true with this guy, isn't 99 the same as 22 here and therefore worthy of a fold?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.514% 44.85% 00.66% 483845088 7140474.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 54.486% 53.82% 00.66% 580625484 7140474.00 { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+ }

Given that playing this hand correctly means 3betting pf, perhaps we can just fold to this loose passive who's showing aggresion?

[cowboy billy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
c) the SB will cold call a cap preflop or an all-in or whatever I could have mustered because he already had a chip in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good reason to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
^indeed

I always get sooo lost in these river spots as well, but you should have def raised pre, not only for value and isolation purposes, but also because it could make decisions later on more easy, especially against the kind of player you described, unless of course they get a little tilty bc they've been getting pounced a little too much, but that's a good thing rite?

in this spot I'd call, bc I think you're good way often enough to make it profitable, donkeys go monkey sometimes out of frustration with hands like AK that didn't hit

usually, people who have the goods would like a call and def wouldn't put the clock on their opponent, unless there's some reverse psych going on, which is never the case when donkeys are involved

you'd have to be good only around 9% to make a call profitable, I think you're good way more often

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
so.... are we not allowed to fold PF here? He's got enough of a range that we can't put him squarely on AK or TT+, but not enough where a lot of his hands include only 3 outs. As I understand it, this is precisely the difference btwn 3betting 99 and 3betting 22. With 22, he def. has two overs, but with 99, a lot of a normal player's range does not have two overs. If that's not true with this guy, isn't 99 the same as 22 here and therefore worthy of a fold?

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.514% 44.85% 00.66% 483845088 7140474.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 54.486% 53.82% 00.66% 580625484 7140474.00 { 88+, ATs+, KTs+, QJs, AJo+ }

Given that playing this hand correctly means 3betting pf, perhaps we can just fold to this loose passive who's showing aggresion?

[/ QUOTE ]

99 has slightly more equity heads up even if he never ever raises with a higher pocket pair because it's less likely to get counterfeited. It also makes a few more straights than 22.

More importantly, it plays a lot better if you have some loose blinds who enter the pot with suited connectors and so forth, which certainly seems like the case here.

Irrespective of the above, you can 3-bet with 99 even though you are a slight underdog because passive, straightforward players are the easiest types of players to play against, especially in position. Also, if he's on the weak-tight side of passive, you may get him to fold a better hand if the flop comes down right.

[DeuceKicker]

[ QUOTE ]
The Button was going to fold anyway which favors ont raising.

[/ QUOTE ]I think that favors raising. Assuming you know Button will fold and SB will call any bets, you're going to the flop 3-handed at least. But getting BB to fold stops it from being 4-handed, which sucks for 99.

Still, the biggest argument is to give CO a chance to tip his hand by 4-betting or not. It will allow you to lose much less when he has a big pair, will allow you to force him out X% of the time when he has AK-AQ and misses the flop, and will also allow you to sometimes make him fold JJ-TT when an A or K flops.

[cgrohman]

Very good post and what I was hoping for for pre-flop analysis. I think folding/3betting have equal EV and calling is poor.

What about the river? Does his turn line auto-define his hand as an overpair? I really was expecting him to call me down -- even with something like JJ.

[Nate tha\\\' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
Very good post and what I was hoping for for pre-flop analysis. I think folding/3betting have equal EV and calling is poor.

What about the river? Does his turn line auto-define his hand as an overpair? I really was expecting him to call me down -- even with something like JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

The gutshot draw on the turn gives you a reason to see the river, and having gotten there, I think you should go ahead and call. If you did not have a gutshot, then I think you can consider folding the turn. These are your reads though, not mine, so I can't tell you for sure.

[DeuceKicker]

With apologies to MajorKong/EdMiller, I think you can pretty confidently fold the river.

[cgrohman]

Part of the reason to 3 bet is to fold out players behind me. If one of them is goign to fold anyway, this is less of a reason to 3 bet.

I don't think 3 betting really helps define his hand all that much. He'd probably cap me with AQ to generla ahtred. I had a slightly loose image.